Strategic development of the UK-EU relationship: can neighbours become good friends?

该奖学金着眼于英国与欧盟（EU）之间的关系，并试图了解它们如何随着时间的推移而发展。考虑到之前的合作程度以及随后对政治和政策的广泛破坏，2016年退出欧盟的决定对英国来说是一个重大决定。尽管签署了两项条约来规范两国关系，但很明显，在两国找到一种新的稳定关系之前，仍有一段路要走：本文着眼于这种关系可能如何出现，并考虑它可能是什么样子。当前的不稳定因素有很多，但主要来自英国方面。整个脱欧过程的特点是，英国政府缺乏确定的战略目标：英国要离开欧盟，但不知道为什么。尽管政治家和评论家对此提出了许多观点，但没有一种模式获得了广泛的支持和接受。相反，英国的许多政策和做法都是由本地因素和问题驱动的，在很大程度上是由不想要的东西驱动的。这种消极的态度使得英国政客和官员很难知道在正式谈判和更广泛的谈判中，什么是可以接受的。尽管存在一些特定的紧张点——尤其是在北爱尔兰问题上——但政府未能制定出可能与欧盟妥协的详细替代方案。不断变化的政治格局也带来了不稳定。新冠肺炎和入侵乌克兰都为进一步合作创造了强大的动力，唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）在2024年重返白宫也是如此。因此，英国的欧盟政策也与其更广泛的外交政策假设和行动密切相关。欧盟本身也在不断变化，新一届委员会将于2024年成立，各成员国的全国选举也在不断改变战略政策的平衡。2025年，在该奖学金结束时，将对已缔结的两项条约之一《贸易与合作协定》进行全面审查。不久之后，北爱尔兰议会将被要求就议定书的进一步延续发表意见，该议定书使北爱尔兰保持在欧盟的许多单一市场规则和条例之内。因此，我们可以预期，这将是行动和言论出现的关键时期，这些行动和言论可能会塑造长期关系，并可能指出更稳定的互动可能是什么样子。研究金开展的工作将包括三个主要内容，所有内容都旨在为利益攸关方和公众提供有用的产出。首先，将有工作来规划当前英欧互动的范围和性质。这包括两个条约及其相关机构，也包括政治家、公务员、外交官和其他人之间更广泛的联系。这些联系很重要，因为它们告诉我们双方认为谈话的价值所在，以及讨论的主题范围。随着时间的推移，有了定期的报告，将有可能看到新的趋势。其次，将分析两国关系中关键人物的公开干预。这包括演讲、报纸上的专栏文章和其他形式的沟通，以表达对问题的理解。通过研究实质性主题及其讨论方式，将有可能更好地理解每一方框架的重要性以及这些框架的匹配程度。第三，对双方主要官员和政界人士的采访，旨在更深入地了解他们对两国关系的更广泛理解。通过这样做，不仅有可能确定分歧或一致意见，而且还可能发现误解，这些误解可能是寻找新解决办法的无意障碍。

The Fellowship looks at relations between the UK and the European Union (EU) and tries to understand how they might develop over time. The decision in 2016 to leave the EU was a significant one for the UK, given the extent of cooperation previously and the extensive disruption to politics and policy that followed. Despite signing two treaties to regulate relations, it is evident that there is still some way to go until the two parties find a new stable relationship: this work looks at how that might emerge and considers what it might look like.The current instability comes from a number of sources, but mostly from the British side. The entire Brexit process has been characterised by a lack of settled strategic objectives for the UK government: the country was to leave the EU, but without knowing quite why. Despite the numerous ideas that have been advanced on this by politicians and commentators, no one model has gained widespread support and acceptance. Instead, much of British policy and practice has been driven by localised factors and issues, driven in large part by what is not wanted. This negative approach has made it very difficult for British politicians and officials to know what is acceptable in both formal negotiations and more broadly. While there are particular points of tensions - notably over Northern Ireland - the government has not been able to develop detailed alternative proposals that might be within the likely zone of compromise with the EU.The constantly evolving political landscape also drives instability. Covid and the invasion of Ukraine have both created strong incentives for further cooperation, as might the return of Donald Trump to the White House in 2024. British EU policy is thus also closely connected to its wider foreign policy assumptions and actions. The EU itself continues to change, with a new Commission due in 2024 and continual national elections in member states shifting the balance of strategic policy.In 2025, at the end of this Fellowship, one of the two treaties concluded - the Trade & Cooperation Agreement - will be due a full review, shortly after the Northern Ireland Assembly is asked to give its opinion on the further continuation of the Protocol that keeps it within many of the EU's single market rules and regulations. We can therefore expect that this will be a critical period for the emergence of both actions and words that might shape the longer-term relationship and might point to what a more stable set of interactions might look like.The work undertaken by the Fellowship will have three main elements, all directed towards producing useful outputs for stakeholders and the general public.Firstly, there will be work to map out the extent and nature of current UK-EU interactions. This includes within the two treaties and their associated bodies, but also the wider set of connections between politicians, civil servants, diplomats and others. These connections matter because they tell us where each side sees value in talking, as well as the range of subjects under discussion. Over time, with regular reporting on this, it will be possible to see emerging trends.Secondly, there will be analysis of public interventions by key figures in the relationship. This includes speeches, op-ed articles in newspapers and other forms of communication that serve to project an understanding of issues. By looking at the substantive topics and the way in which they are discussed, it will be possible to better make sense of how each side frame matters and how closely those frames match up.Thirdly, interviews with key officials and politicians on both sides will aim to gain more insight into the wider understanding they have of the relationship. By drawing this out, there will be potential to identify not only points of disagreement or of consensus, but also misunderstandings that might be an unintentional barrier to finding new solutions.