Strategic development of the UK-EU relationship: can neighbours become good friends?

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The Fellowship looks at relations between the UK and the European Union (EU) and tries to understand how they might develop over time. The decision in 2016 to leave the EU was a significant one for the UK, given the extent of cooperation previously and the extensive disruption to politics and policy that followed. Despite signing two treaties to regulate relations, it is evident that there is still some way to go until the two parties find a new stable relationship: this work looks at how that might emerge and considers what it might look like.The current instability comes from a number of sources, but mostly from the British side. The entire Brexit process has been characterised by a lack of settled strategic objectives for the UK government: the country was to leave the EU, but without knowing quite why. Despite the numerous ideas that have been advanced on this by politicians and commentators, no one model has gained widespread support and acceptance. Instead, much of British policy and practice has been driven by localised factors and issues, driven in large part by what is not wanted. This negative approach has made it very difficult for British politicians and officials to know what is acceptable in both formal negotiations and more broadly. While there are particular points of tensions - notably over Northern Ireland - the government has not been able to develop detailed alternative proposals that might be within the likely zone of compromise with the EU.The constantly evolving political landscape also drives instability. Covid and the invasion of Ukraine have both created strong incentives for further cooperation, as might the return of Donald Trump to the White House in 2024. British EU policy is thus also closely connected to its wider foreign policy assumptions and actions. The EU itself continues to change, with a new Commission due in 2024 and continual national elections in member states shifting the balance of strategic policy.In 2025, at the end of this Fellowship, one of the two treaties concluded - the Trade & Cooperation Agreement - will be due a full review, shortly after the Northern Ireland Assembly is asked to give its opinion on the further continuation of the Protocol that keeps it within many of the EU's single market rules and regulations. We can therefore expect that this will be a critical period for the emergence of both actions and words that might shape the longer-term relationship and might point to what a more stable set of interactions might look like.The work undertaken by the Fellowship will have three main elements, all directed towards producing useful outputs for stakeholders and the general public.Firstly, there will be work to map out the extent and nature of current UK-EU interactions. This includes within the two treaties and their associated bodies, but also the wider set of connections between politicians, civil servants, diplomats and others. These connections matter because they tell us where each side sees value in talking, as well as the range of subjects under discussion. Over time, with regular reporting on this, it will be possible to see emerging trends.Secondly, there will be analysis of public interventions by key figures in the relationship. This includes speeches, op-ed articles in newspapers and other forms of communication that serve to project an understanding of issues. By looking at the substantive topics and the way in which they are discussed, it will be possible to better make sense of how each side frame matters and how closely those frames match up.Thirdly, interviews with key officials and politicians on both sides will aim to gain more insight into the wider understanding they have of the relationship. By drawing this out, there will be potential to identify not only points of disagreement or of consensus, but also misunderstandings that might be an unintentional barrier to finding new solutions.