Strategic development of the UK-EU relationship: can neighbours become good friends?

英欧关系战略发展：邻国能否成为好朋友？

• 批准号: ES/X005607/1
• 负责人: Simon Usherwood
• 金额: $ 43.48万
• 依托单位: The Open University
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Fellowship
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2022 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=ES%2FX005607%2F1
• 关键词: Strategic; development; UK; EU; relationship

The Fellowship looks at relations between the UK and the European Union (EU) and tries to understand how they might develop over time. The decision in 2016 to leave the EU was a significant one for the UK, given the extent of cooperation previously and the extensive disruption to politics and policy that followed. Despite signing two treaties to regulate relations, it is evident that there is still some way to go until the two parties find a new stable relationship: this work looks at how that might emerge and considers what it might look like.The current instability comes from a number of sources, but mostly from the British side. The entire Brexit process has been characterised by a lack of settled strategic objectives for the UK government: the country was to leave the EU, but without knowing quite why. Despite the numerous ideas that have been advanced on this by politicians and commentators, no one model has gained widespread support and acceptance. Instead, much of British policy and practice has been driven by localised factors and issues, driven in large part by what is not wanted. This negative approach has made it very difficult for British politicians and officials to know what is acceptable in both formal negotiations and more broadly. While there are particular points of tensions - notably over Northern Ireland - the government has not been able to develop detailed alternative proposals that might be within the likely zone of compromise with the EU.The constantly evolving political landscape also drives instability. Covid and the invasion of Ukraine have both created strong incentives for further cooperation, as might the return of Donald Trump to the White House in 2024. British EU policy is thus also closely connected to its wider foreign policy assumptions and actions. The EU itself continues to change, with a new Commission due in 2024 and continual national elections in member states shifting the balance of strategic policy.In 2025, at the end of this Fellowship, one of the two treaties concluded - the Trade & Cooperation Agreement - will be due a full review, shortly after the Northern Ireland Assembly is asked to give its opinion on the further continuation of the Protocol that keeps it within many of the EU's single market rules and regulations. We can therefore expect that this will be a critical period for the emergence of both actions and words that might shape the longer-term relationship and might point to what a more stable set of interactions might look like.The work undertaken by the Fellowship will have three main elements, all directed towards producing useful outputs for stakeholders and the general public.Firstly, there will be work to map out the extent and nature of current UK-EU interactions. This includes within the two treaties and their associated bodies, but also the wider set of connections between politicians, civil servants, diplomats and others. These connections matter because they tell us where each side sees value in talking, as well as the range of subjects under discussion. Over time, with regular reporting on this, it will be possible to see emerging trends.Secondly, there will be analysis of public interventions by key figures in the relationship. This includes speeches, op-ed articles in newspapers and other forms of communication that serve to project an understanding of issues. By looking at the substantive topics and the way in which they are discussed, it will be possible to better make sense of how each side frame matters and how closely those frames match up.Thirdly, interviews with key officials and politicians on both sides will aim to gain more insight into the wider understanding they have of the relationship. By drawing this out, there will be potential to identify not only points of disagreement or of consensus, but also misunderstandings that might be an unintentional barrier to finding new solutions.

该奖学金着眼于英国和欧盟（EU）之间的关系，并试图了解它们如何随着时间的推移而发展。2016年离开欧盟的决定对英国来说意义重大，因为之前的合作程度以及随后对政治和政策的广泛干扰。尽管签署了两项条约来规范关系，但很明显，在双方找到一种新的稳定关系之前，还有一段路要走：本文研究了这种关系可能如何出现，并考虑了它可能是什么样子。目前的不稳定来自许多来源，但主要来自英国方面。整个脱欧过程的特点是英国政府缺乏既定的战略目标：英国将离开欧盟，但不知道为什么。尽管政治家和评论家提出了许多想法，但没有一种模式获得广泛的支持和接受。相反，英国的大部分政策和实践都是由本地因素和问题驱动的，在很大程度上是由不想要的东西驱动的。这种消极的态度使英国政治家和官员很难知道在正式谈判和更广泛的谈判中什么是可以接受的。尽管存在一些特殊的紧张点--尤其是在北方爱尔兰问题上--但英国政府一直未能在可能与欧盟达成妥协的范围内制定出详细的替代方案。不断变化的政治格局也导致了不稳定。新冠肺炎疫情和入侵乌克兰都为进一步合作创造了强大的动力，唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）2024年重返白宫也可能如此。因此，英国的欧盟政策也与其更广泛的外交政策假设和行动密切相关。欧盟本身也在不断变化，新的委员会将于2024年成立，成员国持续的全国选举将改变战略政策的平衡。2025年，在本奖学金结束时，达成的两项条约之一-贸易与合作协定-将进行全面审查，在此之前不久，北方爱尔兰议会被要求就该议定书的进一步延续发表意见，该议定书使其保持在欧盟的许多单一市场规则和条例之内。因此，我们可以预期，这将是一个关键时期，出现行动和言论，这些行动和言论可能会塑造长期关系，并可能指出一套更稳定的互动可能是什么样的。研究金所开展的工作将有三个主要内容，所有这些都旨在为利益攸关方和公众提供有用的产出。我们将努力规划出目前英国与欧盟互动的程度和性质。这包括两个条约及其相关机构内部的联系，但也包括政治家、公务员、外交官和其他人之间更广泛的联系。这些联系很重要，因为它们告诉我们双方认为谈判的价值在哪里，以及讨论的主题范围。随着时间的推移，通过定期报告，将有可能看到正在出现的趋势。这包括演讲、报纸上的专栏文章和其他有助于表达对问题的理解的交流形式。通过研究实质性议题及其讨论方式，可以更好地理解双方框架的重要性以及这些框架的匹配程度。第三，采访双方的主要官员和政治家，旨在更深入地了解他们对双边关系的更广泛理解。通过提出这一点，不仅有可能查明分歧或共识，而且有可能查明可能无意中阻碍找到新解决办法的误解。