Evaluating the long-term impact of Release on Temporary License (ROTL)

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Release on temporary licence (ROTL) provides eligible people currently in prison the opportunity to prepare for resettlement in the community through day or overnight release. The intended impact of ROTL is to reduce reoffending in the long-term. The most recent research on the impact of ROTL used data from 2012/2013 and looked at reoffending outcomes for one-year post release. ROTL policy has changed since 2012/2013 and there is currently no research published on the long-term impact of ROTL. Administrative data is available through the Data First programme which provides an opportunity to explore the current gap in understanding the impact of ROTL and how changes in ROTL policy may have influenced reoffending in the long-term. An evaluation of ROTL will be designed in partnership with the Ministry of Justice, HM Prison and Probation Service, the Office for National Statistics and Administrative Data Research UK with consultation from a user representation panel comprised of representatives from criminal justice organisations. The evaluation will provide information on the characteristics of people using ROTL and whether changes in policy influences who is granted ROTL. Analysis of administrative data from 2014 - 2021 will be used to understand how often and for what purposes ROTL has been used, whether ROTL impacts the risk of recall and reoffending and causal relationships between ROTL and post-release outcomes. The feasibility and need for data on a wider range of offender characteristics (such as mental health status) and post-release outcomes (such as employment, housing, and mental health service use) will be explored throughout the evaluation. Understanding the long-term impact of ROTL will contribute to the understanding of effective transition and resettlement from custody into the community. The findings will be discussed with prison and probation staff who use ROTL policy to consider the practical implications of the evaluation findings and will be fed back to the Ministry of Justice, who can use the findings to inform future ROTL policy. Ensuring a wide range of data is used, such as information regarding mental health and employment, will allow a more holistic understanding of the potential impacts ROTL may have. The evaluation will help understand the utility, benefits, and limitations of using administrative data for evaluating policy in the Ministry of Justice and more widely.