Alcohol policy modelling and evaluation

酒精政策是政府干预措施，旨在最大限度地减少使用酒精所造成的健康和社会危害，仅在英格兰每年就花费177亿至251亿英镑。控制酒精的可负担性和可获得性是政府可采取的最有效的政策选择之一。这些政策可能不受消费者和行业的欢迎，因此，重要的是，决策要基于有关预期成本和收益的可靠证据。如果政策生效，重要的是我们要测试预期的效果是否真的发生。我们的目标是在预测和测试政策效果的能力方面引领一个台阶式的变化。与政策利益相关者和国际顾问一起，我们确定了最迫切需要开展工作的优先工作领域，并将酒精政策研究人员以及结合证据，政策评估，工业经济学，卫生经济学和公共卫生信息的专家聚集在一起进行研究。我们计划1.收集和分析数据，并在新证据对政策有效性研究至关重要的领域进行证据审查：（a）酒精市场如何对政策作出反应;（B）酗酒的变化如何与疾病和犯罪的变化有关;（c）人们如何？饮酒量随时间而变化;（d）政策改变需要多长时间才能对饮酒和危害产生影响;以及（e）社会政治局势（例如，当前的经济衰退）在影响一项政策是否有效方面发挥作用。2.建立一个基于计算机的工具，可以预测目前和未来可能的酒精税和零售许可证的选择（在英国讨论的关键政策领域）的可能影响？例如，对高浓度酒精的更高税收或将关闭时间恢复到晚上11点的健康和社会影响。3.方法上的工作，使这一工具可以把政策在现实世界的背景下，最近和长期的变化，酒精价格，收入，饮酒和伤害。4.随着工作的发展，使用不断发展的工具来分析真实的政策选择：最近酒精政策评估的许多方法学进展是因为？现在需要一个答案吗？我们将撰写年度报告，并将与政策制定者密切合作，并在适当的情况下，媒体，以确保我们的研究能够为政策辩论提供信息。

Alcohol policies are government interventions that aim to minimise the health and social harm arising from the use of alcohol, which in England alone costs between #17.7bn and #25.1bn every year. Controlling alcoholic affordability and availability are amongst the most effective policy options available to governments. These policies can be unpopular with consumers and industry, so it is important that decisions are based on sound evidence about the expected costs and benefits. If policies come into force, it is important that we test if expected effects really occur. Our aim is to lead a step-change in capability to predicting and testing the effects of policies. With policy stakeholders and international advisors, we identified priority work areas where work is most urgently needed and bring together alcohol policy researchers, and experts in combining evidence, policy appraisal, industrial economics, health economics and public health information to undertake the research. We plan to1. Collect and analyse data and perform evidence reviews in areas where new evidence is critical to inform policy effectiveness research: (a) how the alcohol market responds to policies; (b) how changes in binge drinking relate to changes in illness and crime; (c) how people?s drinking varies over time; (d) how long it takes for policy changes to have an effect on drinking and harm; and (e) what role the socio-political situation (eg. current recession) plays in influencing whether a policy works. 2. Building a computer-based tool that can predict the likely effects of current and possible future options for alcohol taxation and retail licensing (key policy areas discussed in the UK) ? e.g. the health and social impact of higher taxes for extra strength alcohol or returning closing time to 11pm. 3. Methodological work so that this tool can place the policy in the real-world context of recent and long-term changes to alcohol prices, income, drinking and harm. 4. Using the evolving tool to analyse real policy options as the work develops: many methodological advances in recent alcohol policy appraisal have come about because ?an answer was needed now?. We will write annual reports and will work closely with policy makers and, where appropriate, the media, to ensure that our research is able to inform policy debates.