Alcohol policy modelling and evaluation

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Alcohol policies are government interventions that aim to minimise the health and social harm arising from the use of alcohol, which in England alone costs between #17.7bn and #25.1bn every year. Controlling alcoholic affordability and availability are amongst the most effective policy options available to governments. These policies can be unpopular with consumers and industry, so it is important that decisions are based on sound evidence about the expected costs and benefits. If policies come into force, it is important that we test if expected effects really occur. Our aim is to lead a step-change in capability to predicting and testing the effects of policies. With policy stakeholders and international advisors, we identified priority work areas where work is most urgently needed and bring together alcohol policy researchers, and experts in combining evidence, policy appraisal, industrial economics, health economics and public health information to undertake the research. We plan to1. Collect and analyse data and perform evidence reviews in areas where new evidence is critical to inform policy effectiveness research: (a) how the alcohol market responds to policies; (b) how changes in binge drinking relate to changes in illness and crime; (c) how people?s drinking varies over time; (d) how long it takes for policy changes to have an effect on drinking and harm; and (e) what role the socio-political situation (eg. current recession) plays in influencing whether a policy works. 2. Building a computer-based tool that can predict the likely effects of current and possible future options for alcohol taxation and retail licensing (key policy areas discussed in the UK) ? e.g. the health and social impact of higher taxes for extra strength alcohol or returning closing time to 11pm. 3. Methodological work so that this tool can place the policy in the real-world context of recent and long-term changes to alcohol prices, income, drinking and harm. 4. Using the evolving tool to analyse real policy options as the work develops: many methodological advances in recent alcohol policy appraisal have come about because ?an answer was needed now?. We will write annual reports and will work closely with policy makers and, where appropriate, the media, to ensure that our research is able to inform policy debates.