Glacial Hazards in Chile: Processes, Assessment, Mitigation, and Risk Management Strategies

冰川湖溃决洪水（GLOFs）对世界上许多山区的社区和基础设施构成重大危害，包括智利和其他一些低收入国家。在过去的一个世纪里，由于全球气候变化导致冰川退缩，形成了越来越多的冰川湖泊系统，这种冰川消融的危险有所增加。洪水的爆发可能发生在任何地方，在冰川下面或冰川表面储存着水，在冰锋或冰坝后面成为池塘，或者在冰碛和退缩的冰川边缘之间形成的前冰川湖泊中储存着水。后一类湖泊（冰碛坝湖泊）特别危险，因为冰碛坝的突然崩塌会引发大量池水的释放。仅在秘鲁，冰川源爆发的洪水在20世纪造成约32,000人死亡，并摧毁了重要的经济基础设施、定居点和宝贵的可耕地。在尼泊尔喜马拉雅地区，据估计，溃决洪水摧毁一个成熟的水力发电设施所造成的损失可能超过5亿美元。随着冰川的消退，冰坝和冰碛湖正在智利形成。它们对下游的社区和基础设施构成了日益严重的威胁。这个项目将回答有关智利过去、现在和未来冰川危害的问题。我们将评估它们在当前和未来全球气候变化下的变化幅度、频率和分布。我们将编制智利历史GLOFs的首份完整清单，并确定未来有可能形成冰川灾害的地点。我们将使用基于物理的数值模型在被确定为具有高危险性的地点模拟GLOFs，并利用这些模拟进行灾害和洪水风险预测，从而为智利和全球其他低收入国家的规划者和决策者提供信息。

Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) pose a significant hazard to communities and infrastructure in many mountainous parts of the world, including Chile and a number of other lower income countries. This GLOF hazard has increased over the last century as glaciers recede in response to global climate change forming a growing number of glacial lake systems. Outburst floods can occur anywhere that water is stored beneath or on the surface of a glacier, where water becomes ponded behind an ice front or ice dam, or where water is stored in proglacial lakes that develop between a moraine and a receding glacier margin. Lakes in the latter category (moraine-dammed lakes) are particularly hazardous because a sudden collapse of the moraine dam can trigger the release of large volumes of ponded water. In Peru alone, outburst floods from glacial sources caused ~ 32,000 deaths in the 20th century, as well as destroying vital economic infrastructure, settlements and valuable arable land. In the Nepal Himalaya, it has been estimated that the costs associated with the destruction of a mature single hydropower installation by an outburst flood could exceed USD 500 million. Ice-dammed and moraine-dammed lakes are now developing in Chile as glaciers recede. They pose an ever-increasing threat to communities and infrastructure downstream. This project will answer questions concerning the past, present and future glacial hazards in Chile. We will assess their changing magnitude, frequency, and distribution under current and future global climate change. We will produce the first complete inventory of historical GLOFs in Chile and identify sites that have the potential to develop glacial hazards in the future. We will use physically-based numerical models to simulate GLOFs at sites identified as posing a high hazard and use these simulations to make hazard and flood risk predictions that can inform planners and decision-makers in Chile and other lower income countries globally.