The global burden of Chikungunya virus

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Mosquito-borne infections are one of the major public health concerns worldwide. Chikungunya (CHIK) virus has the potential of generating chronic debilitating rheumatologic conditions (such as joint pain and limiting physical activity) which enlarges its epidemiological and economic effects mainly in tropical countries. Despite its importance, the actual magnitude of CHIK virus at a global level remains poorly understood. Although the global explosion of CHIK outbreaks started a decade ago, and by now has reached all continents some local studies have suggested that actually outbreaks have probably passed unrecognised for several decades. Given this, we hypothesize that the size of each outbreak will depend mainly on the levels of previous exposure in the population. Based on this principle, the aim of this research is to identify the global burden of CHIK infection based on the use of mathematical and statistical modelling to assess the probability of previous exposure based on its ecological suitability. Then, the real magnitude in terms of morbidity, disability, mortality and economics costs can be projected at a global level. The results of this research will inform not only policy makers but also researchers and potential funders for vaccines and other possible interventions.