From models to insight: Effective use of models to inform decisions

决策者往往热衷于在气候政策、流行病应对、经济政策和人道主义危机应对等高度紧张的背景下“遵循科学”。在这样的情况下，决策是由复杂的建模或模拟决定的，不可避免地存在分歧和不确定性，人们不清楚“遵循科学”的真正含义。一些现有的模型使用和解释范式开始暴露出它们在当今时代不适合于目的。我们可以从2008年金融危机的根源(对模型的过度自信)、对正在发展的气候危机的公开讨论(没有人完全知道如何解读不同的模型结果)以及当前的大流行危机(各种模型似乎在推动政策朝着相互矛盾的方向发展)中看到这一点。这些都不是巧合：随着计算机变得更强大，模型变得越来越复杂，模型在科学过程中的作用越来越大，模型影响决策的力量也越来越大。科学方法在决策环境中的局限性和偏差已被广泛研究，但数学模型的具体作用正变得越来越重要。本项目的总体目标是了解模型在决策中作用的数学和社会方面，并将这些与真实世界的例子和案例研究联系起来。该项目跨越了学科界限，也非常重视与政府、企业和第三部门的影响和接触。这将有助于确保尽可能广泛地传播我关于建模的良好做法以及对模型产出的解释和使用的建议。这四个案例研究说明了这项工作涉及的关键社会挑战：减缓和适应气候变化、管理流行病/大流行病应对战略、经济稳定和能源过渡的管理以及应对潜在可预测的人道主义危机的必要性。我将与START网络的合作伙伴在一个案例研究上密切合作，该网络是一个人道主义机构联盟，旨在根据预测采取行动，以应对人道主义危机。从数学上讲，我将为建模方法和不确定性的量化制定一个新的、连贯的框架。但模型和数学并不存在于真空中。我还将调查模型制作和模型使用的社会和政治背景，以及这种背景对方法的适用性和基于模型的结果的稳健性的影响，特别是在决策支持中的使用。该项目的结果和结果将与英国政府、商业和第三部门的决策者直接相关，有可能对将模型用作决策支持工具产生变革。因此，外联和参与方案对该项目非常重要，包括一本书、网站、博客、推特和参与专题会议。我还将邀请/鼓励不同的参与者参加年度研讨会、会议和高级培训课程，这些课程将培养英国早期职业研究人员的技能。

Decision-makers are often keen to "follow the science" in highly-charged contexts such as climate policy, pandemic response, economic policy and humanitarian crisis response. In situations like these, where decisions are informed by complex modelling or simulation and there is inevitable disagreement and uncertainty, it is unclear what "following the science" really means. Some existing paradigms of model use and interpretation are beginning to reveal themselves as unfit for purpose in the present age. We can see this in the roots of the financial crisis in 2008 (over-confidence in models), public discourse on the developing climate crisis (no one quite knows how to interpret different model results), and the present pandemic crisis (where various models appear to be driving policy in conflicting directions). These are not coincidental: as computers become more powerful, and models become more complex, the role of the model within the scientific process has become larger and larger and so has the power of the model to influence decision-making. Limitations and biases of the scientific approach in decision-making contexts have been studied extensively, but the specific role of mathematical models is becoming more and more important.The overall aim of this project is to understand both mathematical and social aspects of the role of models in decision-making, and to connect these with real-world examples and case studies. The project crosses disciplinary boundaries, and also has a strong emphasis on impact and engagement with government, business and the third sector. This will help to ensure as wide as possible a dissemination of my recommendations about good practice for modelling and the interpretation and use of model outputs. The four case studies speak to the key societal challenges that are addressed by this work: mitigation of and adaptation to climate change, managing epidemic/pandemic response strategies, economic stability and management of the energy transition, and the need to respond to potentially-predictable humanitarian crises. I will work closely on one case study with partners at the Start Network, a consortium of humanitarian agencies aiming to take forecast-based action in anticipation of humanitarian crises.Mathematically, I will develop a new, coherent framework for modelling methods and the quantification of uncertainty. But models and mathematics do not exist in a vacuum. I will also investigate the social and political context of model-making and model use, and the consequences of that context for the applicability of methods and robustness of model-based results, in particular for their use in decision support.The results and outcomes of this project will be directly relevant to UK decision-makers in government, business and the third sector, with potential to be transformative for the use of models as decision support tools. The programme of outreach and engagement is therefore very important to this project, including a book, website, blog, Twitter and engaging with subject-specific conferences. I will also invite/ encourage a diverse range of participants at the annual workshops, conferences, and the Advanced Training Course which will build the skills of UK-based early career researchers.