An analytical framework for Test, Trace and Isolate in the UK: optimising and targeting deployment alongside other measures.

点击翻译按钮获取中文摘要

We will develop a robust analytical framework to guide decisions about the deployment of Test, Trace and Isolate (TTI) to control the SARS CoV2 epidemic over the next 12 months. As the UK eases lockdown and workplaces, leisure venues and schools re-open, refining and targeting TTI is necessary to prevent the return of rapid exponential epidemic growth. This will require quick feedback, assessment and integration with real-time epidemiological, behavioural and operational data. We will develop mathematical models of SARS CoV2 transmission and TTI processes, to assess how TTI could be most effectively refined and targeted in association with other control measures, and to develop metrics to assess TTI performance. We will consider how both the design of the TTI system and environmental factors affect people's behaviour. We will respond to emerging questions but currently prioritise: 1) optimal combinations of TTI, screening and physical distancing measures, both to reduce transmission and to protect vulnerable groups; 2) appraisal of the role of behavioural responses to take up and adhere to TTI policies, including trade-offs and the consequences for how policies are supported; 3) signals to initiate stepped up intervention intensity; 4) assessment of our understanding of transmission patterns.