SALIENT: Science for Adaptation: Learning and Innovation in EvideNce about future climaTe

气候变化给农业、水资源、人类健康等带来风险。我们每个人都可能需要适应。规划适应需要预测风险的变化，而且对未来气候信息的需求很大。近几十年来，气候模拟取得了显著进展。气候模型可以用来模拟未来的温度、降雨和极端天气。与此同时，一个新的研究和实践领域也出现了，被称为“气候服务”，旨在支持决策者，与他们一起探索如何使他们的规划适应气候变化，通常使用气候模型的数据。气候服务面临许多挑战，需要许多不同领域的专业知识的投入。一个关键的挑战是使用气候模型数据来生成有关现实世界的信息。科学家可以通过分析模拟来描述模拟世界中2050年代的气候，但不可能确切地知道现实世界中会发生什么。这意味着在分析中有一个必要的“步骤”，将模型数据转换为对现实中可能发生的情况的描述。科学家和顾问有多种方法来做到这一点。他们可能会估计2050年可能发生的一系列事情。他们可能会估计2050年代最有可能出现的结果。然后他们需要找到一种与决策者沟通的方法，这通常是使用图表、地图或声明来完成的。分析中的这个“步骤”至关重要，因为它将决定哪些未来风险被纳入决策。如果做得不好，适应规划可能无法考虑到气候变化风险，从而可能导致未来气候变化影响带来的意外损失和损害。而这“一步”是很难做好的！在如何做这件事上没有达成共识。气候模式是探索不确定性的不完善工具，很难评估其产出的可信度并将其结果传达给非专业人员。在英国等一些国家，政府资助了一些大型项目来应对这一挑战。然而，它仍然没有得到充分的研究，特别是对于全球南方地区来说，可以说是最需要信息的。这就是“气候未来信息差距”，也是这个基于两个关键创新领域的新研究项目的重点：调整气候科学分析的方向，以便更好地在区域尺度上描述气候变化的影响。气候科学通常由所使用的模型数据集主导。这一气候科学计划将受到更好地理解未来可能发生的、合理的和可能发生的事情的需要的推动。它将涉及对许多不同种类的气候数据集的分析，以及多种分析不确定性的新方法，包括将基于模式的估计与专家判断相结合。借鉴传播研究的见解和方法，改进有关气候未来的信息。心理学家和其他领域的科学家，例如医学研究，已经通过测试和评估不同信息和方法的方法，获得了如何传达风险的见解。这个研究方案将与风险沟通方面的专家合作，设计和测试其他沟通产出。该项目将首先关注南部非洲和区域层面的气候变化信息，这是公务员和非政府组织的专家为优先考虑适应行动所需要的。这些利益相关者将被邀请参与研究，从一开始就为分析提供信息，并共同设计通信输出。在南部非洲进行研究之后，将在其他区域和情况下制定和完善一个框架。其目标是提供一种新的“气候未来”科学，这是支持适应气候变化的迫切需要。

Climate change poses risks to agriculture, water resources, human health, and beyond. Each of us will potentially need to adapt. Planning that adaptation requires anticipating changes in risk, and there is great demand for information about future climate.There has been remarkable progress in climate modelling in recent decades. Climate models can be run to simulate future temperature, rainfall, and extreme weather. Meanwhile, a new area of research and practice has also emerged, known as "climate services", designed to support decision-makers, working with them to explore how they can make their planning resilient to climate change, often using data from climate models. Climate services has many challenges and requires input from many different areas of expertise.One key challenge is in using climate model data to generate information about the real world. Scientists can analyse simulations to describe the climate of the 2050s in the modelled worlds, but it is impossible to know with certainty what will happen in the real world. This means that there is a necessary "step" in the analysis, to convert the model data into a description of what could happen in reality. There are multiple ways in which scientists and consultants do this. They might estimate a range of what is possible in the 2050s. They might estimate the most likely outcome for the 2050s. They then need to find a way to communicate this to decision-makers, and this is often done using graphs, maps, or statements.This "step" in the analysis is vitally important because it will determine which future risks are incorporated into decisions. If it is not done well, adaptation planning may fail to take into account climate change risks, potentially leading to unexpected loss and damage from future climate change impacts. And this "step" is very hard to do well! There is no consensus on how to do it. Climate models are imperfect tools for exploring uncertainties, it is very difficult to assess confidence in their outputs and to communicate their results to non-specialists.In some countries, such as the UK, large programmes have been funded which address this challenge. However, it remains understudied, particularly for regions in the Global South which arguably need the information the most. This is the "climate futures information gap" and the focus for this novel research programme which is founded on two key areas of innovation:1. Reorienting climate science analysis to better characterise the influence of climate change on a regional scale. Climate science is often led by the model dataset being used. This programme of climate science will be driven by the need to better understand what is possible, plausible, and probable in future. It will involve analysis of many different kinds of climate datasets, and multiple new approaches to analyse uncertainty, including combining model-based estimates and expert judgements.2. Drawing on insights and methods from communications research to improve information about climate futures. Psychologists and scientists in other fields, for example medical research, have gained insights in how to communicate risk, through methods which test and evaluate different messages and approaches. In collaboration with experts in risk communication, this research programme will design and test alternative communications outputs.The programme will focus first on southern Africa, and regional level climate change information, required by experts in the civil service and non-governmental organisations to prioritise adaptation action. These stakeholders will be invited to participate in the research, to inform the analysis from the outset, and co-design communications outputs. Following the research in southern Africa, a framework will be developed and refined in other regions and contexts. The ambition is to deliver a new kind of "climate futures" science, which is urgently needed to support adaptation to changing climate.