Detecting and classifying bifurcations in the climate system

气候系统分叉的检测和分类

• 批准号: NE/F005474/2
• 负责人: Timothy Lenton
• 金额: $ 11.15万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF EXETER
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2011 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FF005474%2F2
• 关键词: Detecting; classifying; bifurcations; climate; system

We propose to develop a general method for studying bifurcations and transitions of the Earth system, with particular focus on global climate change. As the states of the climate system can be described by analytic potential, we propose a study in which the potential would be estimated from an observed record of a climate variable. Knowing the potential and recently observed trends in the climate system (in temperature, sea level, etc.), we plan to perform computer simulations and evaluate the changes the climate potentials undergo. We will apply the bifurcation theory to study the evolution of the potential and possible bifurcations of its extremals. This will allow to make projections of time series which will be compared with projections provided by IPCC AR4. Once the method finally developed, it will be tested on artificial data with simulated dynamics, and then applied on available paleo-, historical and real-time observed data.

我们建议开发一个通用的方法来研究地球系统的分叉和过渡，特别关注全球气候变化。由于气候系统的状态可以用分析势来描述，我们提出了一种研究方法，即从一个气候变量的观测记录来估计分析势。了解气候系统的潜在趋势和最近观察到的趋势（温度、海平面等），我们计划进行电脑模拟，评估气候潜能所经历的变化。我们将应用分支理论来研究势的演化及其极值的可能分支。这将有助于对时间序列进行预测，并将其与气专委第四次评估报告提供的预测进行比较。一旦该方法最终开发出来，它将在具有模拟动力学的人工数据上进行测试，然后应用于现有的古、历史和实时观测数据。

项目成果

Beyond 2°C: redefining dangerous climate change for physical systems

• DOI: 10.1002/wcc.107
• 发表时间: 2011-05
• 期刊: Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change
• 作者: T. Lenton

Integrating tipping points into climate impact assessments

• DOI: 10.1007/s10584-012-0572-8
• 发表时间: 2013-04-01
• 期刊: CLIMATIC CHANGE
• 影响因子: 4.8
• 作者: Lenton, Timothy M.;Ciscar, Juan-Carlos
• 通讯作者: Ciscar, Juan-Carlos

2 °C or not 2 °C? That is the climate question.

2°C 还是不是 2°C？

• DOI: 10.1038/473007a
• 发表时间: 2011
• 期刊: Nature
• 影响因子: 64.8
• 作者: Lenton T

The Future of the World's Climate

世界气候的未来

• DOI: 10.1016/b978-0-12-386917-3.00017-8
• 发表时间: 2012
• 作者: Lenton T

Tipping climate cooperation

推动气候合作

• DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2078
• 发表时间: 2013
• 期刊: Nature Climate Change
• 影响因子: 30.7
• 作者: Lenton T