Detecting and classifying bifurcations in the climate system

我们建议开发一种研究地球系统的分叉和过渡的一般方法，特别是关注全球气候变化。由于气候系统的状态可以用解析势来描述，我们建议进行一项研究，其中势将根据观测到的气候变量的记录来估计。了解气候系统的潜力和最近观察到的趋势(温度、海平面等)，我们计划进行计算机模拟并评估气候潜力所经历的变化。我们将应用分支理论来研究其极值的位势和可能的分支的演化。这将允许对时间序列进行预测，并将其与气专委AR4提供的预测进行比较。一旦该方法最终开发出来，它将在具有模拟动力学的人工数据上进行测试，然后应用于现有的古、历史和实时观测数据。

We propose to develop a general method for studying bifurcations and transitions of the Earth system, with particular focus on global climate change. As the states of the climate system can be described by analytic potential, we propose a study in which the potential would be estimated from an observed record of a climate variable. Knowing the potential and recently observed trends in the climate system (in temperature, sea level, etc.), we plan to perform computer simulations and evaluate the changes the climate potentials undergo. We will apply the bifurcation theory to study the evolution of the potential and possible bifurcations of its extremals. This will allow to make projections of time series which will be compared with projections provided by IPCC AR4. Once the method finally developed, it will be tested on artificial data with simulated dynamics, and then applied on available paleo-, historical and real-time observed data.