Improved Community Resilience through Integrated Earthquake Science

地震预报，(在哪里？多大?什么时候？)目前还不可能，但最近地震科学的快速发展在确定地震高度危险区域方面取得了进展，减轻地震的行动和稀缺的资源可以集中在这些区域上。对于许多科学家来说，地震预测的目标已经被有针对性地为高危人群做好准备的目标所取代。综合地震科学产生了有效的减少灾害风险准备方案，可以证明这些方案是有效的，其中许多科学都是成熟的和无争议的。例如，在苏门答腊岛西部，巴东市位于Sunda巨型逆冲的明打威群岛段的侧面，该段已被证明在地震周期中处于领先地位，并在一次大地震中濒临崩溃。这一事件可能会引发一场破坏性的海啸，在没有准备的情况下，死亡人数可能会达到2004年印度洋海啸的水平。根据地震和海啸综合科学目前的见解，该市居民一直是密集备灾工作的对象。2009年9月30日，该市发生7.6级地震，造成约1200人死亡。有趣的是，这次地震在地壳深处破裂，没有引起海底的任何垂直运动，因此没有引发海啸，但巴东没有人知道这一点，这是预期中的地震的完美演练。后来对巴东居民反应的法医研究表明，根据疏散计划，大量人撤离了巴东，如果地震是海啸发生的，许多人的生命都会获救。不幸的是，在生命风险最高的发展中国家，利用无争议的地震科学的优秀实践的例子太少了，因此可以避免的地震及其相关危险造成的生命损失太常见了。2010年1月12日的海地地震就是一个很好的例子，尽管国际地震科学期刊上的几篇文章警告了7级左右地震的迫在眉睫的威胁，但与他们合作的民众和非政府组织仍然完全不知道这一威胁，在这场7级地震发生时，230000多人死亡。我们的目标是改变这种平衡。在这个项目中，我们将组建一个由地震科学家、非政府组织行为者和政府机构组成的国际团队，并开发一个大型联合体项目，旨在整合和示范地震科学中的尖端混合方法，同时发展伙伴关系和方法，以传播、利用和适应发展中国家减少灾害风险规划的最佳方法。该联盟项目将通过最好地利用不同地震科学领域的现有方法来开展尖端应用科学，所有这些方法都已被证明是有效的，并将它们结合起来，制定出识别地震风险最高地区的协议。然后，我们将借鉴国际最佳做法，如巴东，并与社会科学家和非政府组织和政府机构的最终用户合作，确保在全球范围内从这些例子中吸取教训，使处于危险中的人口能够充分利用最先进的地震科学。为了能够适当地使用地震科学，该联盟将确定最有效的科学政策对话形式，并开发最能支持地震科学在ARCS中的有效交流和应用的创新方法。这种科学政策学习将具有巨大的可转让价值，能够从各个科学领域了解未来的脆弱性，以直接向处于危险中的社区提供信息和支持。

Earthquake prediction, (where? how big? and when?) is currently not possible but recent, rapid developments in earthquake science have made progress on identification of regions of high seismic hazard on which mitigating actions and scarce resources can be focused. For many scientists, the goal of earthquake prediction has been superseded by the goal of targeted preparation of at-risk populations. Integrated earthquake science, much of it established and uncontested, has produced effective disaster risk reduction preparedness programmes which can be shown to work. In western Sumatra, for example, the city of Padang lies broadside on to the Mentawai Islands segment of the Sunda megathrust which has been shown to be advanced in its seismic cycle and nearing failure in a large earthquake. This event will likely generate a destructive tsunami and, without preparation, a death toll on the same scale as the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami is thought possible. The population of the city have been the subject of intensive preparedness work based on the current insights from integrated earthquake and tsunami science. On 30 September 2009 an earthquake of magnitude 7.6 hit the city killing some 1200 people. Interestingly, this earthquake ruptured deep in the crust and did not cause any vertical movements of the seafloor and therefore did not generate a tsunami but no one in Padang knew this, it was perfect dry run for the expected earthquake. Later forensic studies of the response of Padang residents show that large numbers of people evacuated the city according to the evacuation plan and many lives would have been saved had the earthquake been tsunamigenic. Unfortunately in developing countries, where the risk to lives is highest, examples of excellent practice in utilising uncontested earthquake science are too rare, and thus avoidable loss of life to earthquakes and their associated hazards is too common. The 12 January 2010 Haiti earthquake is a case in point, here, despite several publications in international earthquake science journals warning of the impending threat of an earthquake of magnitude around 7, the population and NGO's working with them remained completely ignorant of the threat and more than 230000 people died when the earthquake (M=7.1) occurred. We aim to change this balance. In this project we will put together an international team of earthquake scientists, NGO actors and government agencies and develop a large consortium project aimed at the integration and demonstration of cutting-edge, hybrid methods in earthquake science in parallel with the development of partnerships and methodologies for dissemination, utilisation and contextualisation of the best methods for disaster risk reduction programming in developing countries. The consortium project will do cutting-edge applied science by taking the best of current methods from different earthquake science fields, all of which have been shown to work, and combine them to produce protocols to identify regions of highest earthquake hazard. We will then take examples of international best practice, like Padang, in preparedness and work with social scientists and end users in the NGO and government agencies to ensure that the lessons from these examples are learned on a global basis so that the at-risk populations can fully avail of the state-of-the-art earthquake science. To enable appropriate use of earthquake science, the consortium will identify the most effective forms of science policy dialogue and develop innovative approaches which best support the effective communication and application of earthquake science for ARCs. This science policy learning will be of enormous transferable value, enabling learning from across scientific fields concerning future vulnerability to directly inform and support at risk communities.