Improved Community Resilience through Integrated Earthquake Science

通过综合地震科学提高社区复原力

• 批准号: NE/I018069/1
• 负责人: John McCloskey
• 金额: $ 3.06万
• 依托单位: University of Ulster
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2010
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2010 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FI018069%2F1
• 关键词: Improved; Community; Resilience; through; Integrated

Earthquake prediction, (where? how big? and when?) is currently not possible but recent, rapid developments in earthquake science have made progress on identification of regions of high seismic hazard on which mitigating actions and scarce resources can be focused. For many scientists, the goal of earthquake prediction has been superseded by the goal of targeted preparation of at-risk populations. Integrated earthquake science, much of it established and uncontested, has produced effective disaster risk reduction preparedness programmes which can be shown to work. In western Sumatra, for example, the city of Padang lies broadside on to the Mentawai Islands segment of the Sunda megathrust which has been shown to be advanced in its seismic cycle and nearing failure in a large earthquake. This event will likely generate a destructive tsunami and, without preparation, a death toll on the same scale as the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami is thought possible. The population of the city have been the subject of intensive preparedness work based on the current insights from integrated earthquake and tsunami science. On 30 September 2009 an earthquake of magnitude 7.6 hit the city killing some 1200 people. Interestingly, this earthquake ruptured deep in the crust and did not cause any vertical movements of the seafloor and therefore did not generate a tsunami but no one in Padang knew this, it was perfect dry run for the expected earthquake. Later forensic studies of the response of Padang residents show that large numbers of people evacuated the city according to the evacuation plan and many lives would have been saved had the earthquake been tsunamigenic. Unfortunately in developing countries, where the risk to lives is highest, examples of excellent practice in utilising uncontested earthquake science are too rare, and thus avoidable loss of life to earthquakes and their associated hazards is too common. The 12 January 2010 Haiti earthquake is a case in point, here, despite several publications in international earthquake science journals warning of the impending threat of an earthquake of magnitude around 7, the population and NGO's working with them remained completely ignorant of the threat and more than 230000 people died when the earthquake (M=7.1) occurred. We aim to change this balance. In this project we will put together an international team of earthquake scientists, NGO actors and government agencies and develop a large consortium project aimed at the integration and demonstration of cutting-edge, hybrid methods in earthquake science in parallel with the development of partnerships and methodologies for dissemination, utilisation and contextualisation of the best methods for disaster risk reduction programming in developing countries. The consortium project will do cutting-edge applied science by taking the best of current methods from different earthquake science fields, all of which have been shown to work, and combine them to produce protocols to identify regions of highest earthquake hazard. We will then take examples of international best practice, like Padang, in preparedness and work with social scientists and end users in the NGO and government agencies to ensure that the lessons from these examples are learned on a global basis so that the at-risk populations can fully avail of the state-of-the-art earthquake science. To enable appropriate use of earthquake science, the consortium will identify the most effective forms of science policy dialogue and develop innovative approaches which best support the effective communication and application of earthquake science for ARCs. This science policy learning will be of enormous transferable value, enabling learning from across scientific fields concerning future vulnerability to directly inform and support at risk communities.

地震预报，（在哪里？多大？什么时候？）目前还不可能，但最近，地震科学的迅速发展在确定高地震危险区域方面取得了进展，可以集中采取减灾行动和稀缺资源。对许多科学家来说，地震预测的目标已经被有针对性地为高危人群做好准备的目标所取代。综合地震科学，其中大部分已经建立，没有争议，已经产生了有效的减少灾害风险准备方案，可以证明是有效的。例如，在苏门答腊岛西部，巴塘市与巽他巨型逆冲断层的明打威群岛部分侧倾，该逆冲断层已被证明在其地震周期中处于提前状态，在大地震中接近失效。这一事件可能会产生破坏性的海啸，如果没有准备，死亡人数可能与2004年印度洋海啸相同。根据地震和海啸综合科学目前的见解，该市的人口一直是密集备灾工作的对象。2009年9月30日，7.6级地震袭击了该市，造成约1200人死亡。有趣的是，这次地震在地壳深处破裂，没有引起海底的任何垂直运动，因此没有产生海啸，但巴塘没有人知道这一点，这是预期地震的完美演习。后来对巴塘居民的反应进行的法医研究表明，大量的人根据疏散计划撤离了城市，如果地震是海啸的话，许多人的生命本来可以挽救。不幸的是，在生命风险最高的发展中国家，利用无可争议的地震科学的优秀实践的例子太少了，因此，地震及其相关危害造成的可避免的生命损失太常见了。2010年1月12日的海地地震就是一个很好的例子，尽管国际地震科学期刊上有几篇文章警告说，即将发生7级左右的地震，但人民和与他们合作的非政府组织仍然完全不知道这种威胁，超过23万人在地震（M=7.1）发生时死亡。我们的目标是改变这种平衡。在该项目中，我们将组建一个由地震科学家、非政府组织参与者和政府机构组成的国际团队，并开发一个大型财团项目，旨在整合和展示地震科学中的尖端混合方法，同时发展伙伴关系和方法，以传播、利用和结合发展中国家减少灾害风险规划的最佳方法。该联合项目将通过采用来自不同地震科学领域的最佳当前方法来进行尖端应用科学，所有这些方法都已被证明是有效的，并将它们联合收割机结合起来产生协议，以确定地震危险性最高的地区。然后，我们将采取国际最佳做法的例子，如巴塘，在准备和工作与社会科学家和最终用户在非政府组织和政府机构，以确保从这些例子中吸取的教训是在全球范围内，使处于危险之中的人口可以充分利用国家的最先进的地震科学。为了使地震科学得到适当利用，该联合体将确定最有效的科学政策对话形式，并开发最能支持地震科学在ARC中的有效传播和应用的创新方法。这种科学政策学习将具有巨大的可转移价值，使跨科学领域关于未来脆弱性的学习能够直接告知和支持面临风险的社区。

项目成果

Social dimensions of science-humanitarian collaboration: lessons from Padang, Sumatra, Indonesia.

科学与人道主义合作的社会层面：印度尼西亚苏门答腊岛巴东的经验教训。

• DOI: 10.1111/disa.12064
• 发表时间: 2014
• 期刊: Disasters
• 影响因子: 3.2
• 作者: Shannon R

The Bengkulu premonition: cultural pluralism and hybridity in disaster risk reduction The Bengkulu premonition

明古鲁预感：减少灾害风险中的文化多元化和混合性 明古鲁预感

• DOI: 10.1111/j.1475-4762.2011.01029.x
• 发表时间: 2011
• 期刊: Area
• 影响因子: 2.2
• 作者: Shannon R