Real-time Aftershock Forecasting in Turkey (RAFT)

土耳其实时余震预报 (RAFT)

• 批准号: NE/P008488/1
• 负责人: John McCloskey
• 金额: $ 25.62万
• 依托单位: University of Edinburgh
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2016 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FP008488%2F1
• 关键词: Real; time; Aftershock; Forecasting; Turkey

Trapped between the Eurasian tectonic plate and the northward moving Arabian plate, the Anatolian plate is being squeezed to the west forming two major earthquake fault zones, the North and East Anatolian Fault Zones. Throughout recorded history both have generated fatal earthquakes. The city of Antakya, for example, was destroyed twice in 115 and in 556 probably killing more than 500000 people; to the north the 1939 Erzincan earthquake killed more than 30,000 people and more recently the Izmit and Duzce earthquakes together killed more than 18000. In the last century Turkey has suffered 43 fatal earthquakes killing in the region of 100,000 people and, on average, we can expect a killer earthquake every 2 years.While it is not possible to predict earthquakes, very robust statistical laws in seismology and the rapid calculation of complex stress fields produced by large earthquakes, has allowed us to make dependable, physics-based forecasts, resulting from detailed, near real-time seismological observations, of where aftershocks are likely to occur. In this project we plan to continue to develop this science so that emergency managers can include science-based forecasts in operational decision-making during an earthquake crisis.Statistical forecast methods depend on accurate, plentiful data on the location and sizes of the developing aftershocks. Normal seismic infrastructure is only capable resolving larger events, reducing the power and stability of the statistics. We will purchase and test a custom designed completely dedicated portable seismic network which, when combined with the existing Turkish seismological network, will be capable of recording earthquakes of M >2. This system will be equipped with telemetry so that the seismic catalogues are available at an Aftershock Management Centre in near real-time.While the statistical techniques have already been shown to produce good forecasts of the probability of aftershocks, additional work will allow the automation of many of the decisions which must be made concerning, for example, when to move to a more complex aftershock model during a crisis. Such subjective decisions will be extremely important in making sure that physics, not emotion, guide the decision-making process, which will, of course, ultimately be led by a trained seismologist.During the recent Nepal earthquake crisis the University of Ulster group provided near real-time forecasts both to government and to a major NGO which included earthquake space-time density maps as well as underlying stress distributions to provide qualitative forecasts of the spatial structure of future events. This work will be developed to produce more quantitative spatial estimates of aftershock probability, based on the evolving theories of rate and state friction, which again, can be automated to provide subjective risk evaluations. So that the entire process can be rigorously tested, we will deploy the network and test every aspect of the protocols which evolve during the project, following a moderate earthquake occurring in the last 6 months of the project. This field trial will be observed by an International Advisory Panel of scientists and humanitarian workers which will be constituted early in the project.

安纳托利亚板块被夹在欧亚板块和向北移动的阿拉伯板块之间，向西挤压，形成两个主要的地震断层带，即北安纳托利亚断层带和东安纳托利亚断层带。在有记载的历史中，两者都曾引发过致命的地震。例如，安塔基亚城在公元115年和公元556年两次被摧毁，可能造成50多万人死亡;在北部，1939年的埃尔津坎地震造成3万多人死亡，最近的伊兹米特和杜兹切地震造成18000多人死亡。在上个世纪，土耳其遭受了43次致命的地震，造成10万人死亡，平均每两年我们就可以预料到一次致命的地震。虽然不可能预测地震，但地震学中非常强大的统计规律和对大地震产生的复杂应力场的快速计算，使我们能够做出可靠的、基于物理的预测，通过详细的、近实时的地震观测，可以确定余震可能发生的地点。在本项目中，我们计划继续发展这一科学，以便应急管理人员在地震危机期间可以将基于科学的预测纳入运营决策。统计预测方法依赖于关于余震发展的位置和大小的准确，丰富的数据。普通的地震基础设施只能解决较大的事件，降低了统计数据的能力和稳定性。我们将购买和测试一个定制设计的完全专用的便携式地震网络，当与现有的土耳其地震网络相结合时，将能够记录M >2的地震。这一系统将配备遥测技术，以便余震管理中心能够接近实时地提供地震目录，虽然统计技术已显示出对余震可能性作出良好的预测，但进一步的工作将使许多必须作出的决定自动化，例如，在危机期间何时应改用较复杂的余震模型。这样的主观决定对于确保物理而不是情感指导决策过程至关重要，当然，在最近的尼泊尔地震危机中，阿尔斯特大学小组向政府和一个主要的非政府组织提供了近实时的预报，其中包括地震空间-时间密度图以及潜在的应力分布，以提供对未来事件的空间结构的定性预测。这项工作将被开发，以产生更多的定量空间估计余震概率，根据不断发展的理论率和状态摩擦，这再次，可以自动提供主观的风险评估。为了对整个过程进行严格的测试，我们将部署网络，并在项目最后6个月发生中度地震后测试项目期间发展的协议的各个方面。将在项目初期组建一个由科学家和人道主义工作者组成的国际咨询小组，对这一实地试验进行观察。

项目成果

The June 12, 2017 M6.3 Karaburun-Lesvos earthquake of the Northern Aegean Sea: Aftershock forecasting and stress transfer

2017年6月12日北爱琴海M6.3卡拉布伦-莱斯沃斯地震：余震预报和应力转移

• DOI: 10.1016/j.tecto.2021.228945
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: Tectonophysics
• 影响因子: 2.9
• 作者: Utkucu M