APPOSITE: Arctic Predictability and Prediction On Seasonal to Inter-annual Timescales

适用：北极的可预测性和季节到年际时间尺度的预测

基本信息

批准号：
NE/I029447/1
负责人：
Ed Hawkins
金额：
$ 68.04万
依托单位：
University of Reading
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2012
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2012 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FI029447%2F1
关键词：
APPOSITE Arctic Predictability Prediction Seasonal

项目摘要

The Arctic is a region experiencing rapid climate changes. APPOSITE is a proposed three year research programme focusing on improving our ability to forecast the climate of the Arctic on seasonal to inter-annual timescales. Arctic predictions would be of great value to both the people that live and work in the Arctic regions and also for informing important policy decisions about the region. Additionally, the Arctic region exerts an influence on the climate outside the Arctic. Hence improved forecasts of Arctic climate may increase our ability to forecast climate in mid-latitude regions, such as Europe, on similar seasonal to inter-annual timescales.Building such Arctic forecast systems will be a complex task, involving the construction of a detailed observation system to monitor Arctic climate, and sophisticated forecast models that can use these observations to enhance predictive capabilities. An important first step before committing to such a programme, is to assess the likely benefits that such a system may bring. APPOSITE is specifically designed to provide this assessment by answering four key questions: 1) What aspects of Arctic climate can we predict? 2) How far in advance can we predict these aspects? Does this depend on the season? 3) What physical processes and mechanisms are responsible for this predictability? 4) What aspects of forecast models should be prioritised for development?APPOSITE will use state-of-the art climate models to answer these questions. The answers to these questions will form a key part of the future development of seasonal to inter-annual Arctic forecasting systems nationally and internationally.

北极是一个经历了快速气候变化的地区。 Appoite是一项拟议的三年研究计划，重点是提高我们预测北极气候在季节性到年际时间表上的能力。北极预测对在北极地区生活和工作的人们以及为该地区的重要政策决定提供了巨大的价值。另外，北极地区对北极以外的气候产生影响。因此，改善对北极气候的预测可能会提高我们在范围内的纬度区域预测气候的能力，例如欧洲，在类似的季节性与年度时间尺度上。建立此类北极预测系统将是一项复杂的任务，这将是一项复杂的任务，涉及构建详细的观察系统以监控北极气候的模型，以增强这些观察的模型。在进行这样的计划之前，重要的第一步是评估这种系统可能带来的可能收益。专门设计的是通过回答四个关键问题来提供此评估：1）我们可以预测北极气候的哪些方面？ 2）我们可以提前多远预测这些方面？这取决于季节吗？ 3）哪些物理过程和机制负责这种可预测性？ 4）应该优先考虑预测模型的哪些方面？这些问题的答案将构成在国内和国际上的季节性到未来北极预测系统的未来发展的关键部分。