Natural enemies, climate, and the maintenance of tropical tree diversity

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At least 50% of earth's plant and animal species is found in tropical rainforests, but this rich biodiversity is under threat from deforestation and climate change. Ecologists are interested in understanding why these habitats are so diverse, and how their diversity will change in the future. One leading explanation for high plant biodiversity in tropical forests is the Janzen-Connell Effect. This theory suggests that pests such as plant-feeding insects and fungal diseases can help maintain tropical biodiversity if (1) they specialise on particular plant species, and (2) they cause 'density-dependent' mortality (i.e., they kill more seeds and seedlings where these are locally abundant). This pest pressure acts as a negative feedback mechanism, putting locally rare plant species at an advantage and preventing any one species from reaching high abundance. Recent research shows that this form of density-dependence from both insects and fungi plays a key role in the maintenance of plant diversity in the tropics. We now want to discover how this process changes under different climatic regimes. Wetter tropical forests have more plant species than drier forest, and we will test the theory that more intense density-dependent pest pressure in these places is a factor behind these differences. We will also investigate whether future changes to the climate (higher or lower rainfall) are likely to alter the strength of the Janzen-Connell Effect, and consequently plant diversity. Our work will take place in Panama, where we will take advantage of a steep gradient in rainfall and soil humidity from the dry (Pacific) coast to the humid (Atlantic) coast to test our hypotheses. We will carry our experiments in the field and in controlled nursery conditions that manipulate the density of seeds and seedlings and the presence of fungal pathogens and plant-feeding insects, and we will analyse long-term data and build mathematical models to explore whether and to what extent climate change will alter tropical plant diversity.