Arctic Climate Change and its Mid-latitude Impacts

北极气候变化及其对中纬度地区的影响

基本信息

批准号：
NE/J019585/1
负责人：
James Screen
金额：
$ 29.06万
依托单位：
UNIVERSITY OF EXETER
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Fellowship
财政年份：
2013
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2013 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FJ019585%2F1
关键词：
Arctic Climate Change its Mid

项目摘要

The Arctic climate is changing fast and its sea ice is melting at an increasing rate. Since 1979, perennial sea ice cover has shrunk by nearly half. Continuing this trend, 2011 witnessed near record losses of summer sea ice. The last five years have had the five lowest amounts of September sea ice in the modern record. This inexorable retreat of sea ice may have far reaching repercussions for the global climate system. There is an urgent need for scientific projections of future Arctic sea ice conditions to inform policy decisions. The aim of this project is to improve our understanding of Arctic climate change and its impacts on weather and climate in the northern hemisphere mid-latitudes (including the United Kingdom), and of the physical processes that govern these interactions. This objective will be achieved through complementary analyses of observations and state-of-the-art climate model experiments.Changes in the Arctic sea ice impact the atmosphere above it, and can cause large-scale shifts in weather patterns that "communicate" Arctic change to distant regions. The abnormally cold UK winters of 2009/10 and 2010/11 provide good examples of how the climates of the Arctic and the United Kingdom are connected. In these winters, unusual large-scale weather patterns led to exceptionally warm conditions in the Arctic whereas in the UK there were persistent cold temperatures, heavy snowfall and freezing rain. These resulted in disruptions to transport, energy supply and power transmission, and agricultural damage; all with significant economic costs. These record-breaking winters were preceded by reductions in summer and autumn Arctic sea ice cover. Whilst a number of studies have proposed possible connections between these, the physical processes that could explain such a connection remain unclear. Furthermore, it is unclear how future projected sea ice loss will effect the UK weather and climate. This research will use climate models to gain insight into these critical issues. In a model setting, the sea ice cover can be manipulated in a controlled manner to reveal how and by what processes it effects the wider climate system. This research aims to provide an improved understanding of the local and remote climate responses to changing sea ice conditions, and the mechanisms that govern these responses. It will shed light on whether the recent winters are relatively isolated and random events, or instead are a consequence of the dwindling Arctic ice cover. Improving our understanding and modeling of the factors affecting the climate system response to Arctic sea ice loss will improve our ability to anticipate, mitigate and adapt to future climate change, and hence the potential environmental, socio-economic and political impacts that may result.The research will be undertaken at the University of Exeter, in partnership with the UK Meteorological Office Hadley Centre and the US National Center for Atmospheric Research. It complements and extends upon a NERC-funded 5-year intensive programme of Arctic Science within the UK.

北极气候正在快速变化，其海冰正在以越来越多的速度融化。自1979年以来，多年生海冰覆盖量已缩小近一半。继续这种趋势，2011年见证了夏季海冰的创纪录损失。在过去的五年中，现代记录中有五个最低的九月海冰。这种无情的海冰撤退可能会对全球气候系统产生远距离影响。迫切需要对未来北极海冰条件的科学预测来为政策决定提供信息。该项目的目的是提高我们对北半球中期（包括英国）的天气和气候的影响以及对这些相互作用的身体过程的理解。这一目标将通过对观测和最新气候模型实验的互补分析来实现。北极海冰的变换会影响其上方的大气，并可能导致“传达”北极变化的天气模式的大规模变化。 2009/10和2010/11的异常寒冷的英国冬季提供了很好的例子，说明了北极和英国的气候如何连接。在这些冬季中，异常的大规模天气模式导致北极的温暖状况异常温暖，而在英国，有持续的寒冷温度，大雪和寒冷的降雨。这些导致了运输，能源供应和电力传输以及农业损害的中断；一切都有巨大的经济成本。在夏季和秋季北极海冰盖上，这些破纪录的冬季是减少的。尽管许多研究提出了它们之间的可能联系，但可以解释这种联系的物理过程尚不清楚。此外，目前尚不清楚未来预计的海冰损失将如何影响英国的天气和气候。这项研究将使用气候模型来深入了解这些关键问题。在模型设置中，可以以受控的方式操纵海冰覆盖物，以揭示其如何以及通过哪些过程影响更广泛的气候系统。这项研究旨在提高人们对不断变化的海冰状况的当地和遥远气候反应以及控制这些反应的机制的理解。它将阐明最近的冬季是相对孤立的和随机的事件，还是北极冰盖下降的结果。提高我们对影响气候系统对北极海冰损失反应的因素的理解和建模将提高我们的预期，减轻和适应未来的气候变化的能力，从而可能导致的潜在环境，社会经济和政治影响。这项研究将在埃克塞特大学与UK Setorological Office Office Office Office Office Office Office Centre Center Centern Centeric Centersic Centeric Centeric Centeric Centersic Centersic Centersic Centeric Centeric Centeric Centeric Centeric Centeric Centeric Centeric Centersic Centersic中心。它补充并扩展了由NERC资助的5年密集型北极科学计划。

项目成果

期刊论文数量（10）

专著数量（0）

科研奖励数量（0）

会议论文数量（0）

专利数量（0）

Modeling the Arctic freshwater system and its integration in the global system: Lessons learned and future challenges

DOI：
10.1002/2015jg003120
发表时间：
2016-03
期刊：
Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences
影响因子：
0
作者：
C. Lique;M. Holland;Y. Dibike;D. Lawrence;J. Screen
通讯作者：
C. Lique;M. Holland;Y. Dibike;D. Lawrence;J. Screen

Potential influences on the United Kingdom's floods of winter 2013/14

DOI：
10.1038/nclimate2314
发表时间：
2014-09-01
期刊：
NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
影响因子：
30.7
作者：
Huntingford, Chris;Marsh, Terry;Allen, Myles R.
通讯作者：
Allen, Myles R.

Reply to 'Drivers of the 2013/14 winter floods in the UK'

DOI：
10.1038/nclimate2613
发表时间：
2015-06
期刊：
Nature Climate Change
影响因子：
30.7
作者：
C. Huntingford;T. Marsh;Adam A. Scaife;E. Kendon;J. Hannaford;A. Kay;M. Lockwood;C. Prudhomme;N. Reynard;S. Parry;J. Lowe;J. Screen;H. C. Ward;M. Roberts;P. Stott;V. Bell;Mark J. Bailey;A. Jenkins;T. Legg;F. Otto;N. Massey;N. Schaller;J. Slingo;M. Allen
通讯作者：
C. Huntingford;T. Marsh;Adam A. Scaife;E. Kendon;J. Hannaford;A. Kay;M. Lockwood;C. Prudhomme;N. Reynard;S. Parry;J. Lowe;J. Screen;H. C. Ward;M. Roberts;P. Stott;V. Bell;Mark J. Bailey;A. Jenkins;T. Legg;F. Otto;N. Massey;N. Schaller;J. Slingo;M. Allen

Recent Arctic amplification and extreme mid-latitude weather