Arctic Climate Change and its Mid-latitude Impacts

北极气候变化及其对中纬度地区的影响

• 批准号: NE/J019585/1
• 负责人: James Screen
• 金额: $ 29.06万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF EXETER
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Fellowship
• 财政年份: 2013
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2013 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FJ019585%2F1
• 关键词: Arctic; Climate; Change; its; Mid

The Arctic climate is changing fast and its sea ice is melting at an increasing rate. Since 1979, perennial sea ice cover has shrunk by nearly half. Continuing this trend, 2011 witnessed near record losses of summer sea ice. The last five years have had the five lowest amounts of September sea ice in the modern record. This inexorable retreat of sea ice may have far reaching repercussions for the global climate system. There is an urgent need for scientific projections of future Arctic sea ice conditions to inform policy decisions. The aim of this project is to improve our understanding of Arctic climate change and its impacts on weather and climate in the northern hemisphere mid-latitudes (including the United Kingdom), and of the physical processes that govern these interactions. This objective will be achieved through complementary analyses of observations and state-of-the-art climate model experiments.Changes in the Arctic sea ice impact the atmosphere above it, and can cause large-scale shifts in weather patterns that "communicate" Arctic change to distant regions. The abnormally cold UK winters of 2009/10 and 2010/11 provide good examples of how the climates of the Arctic and the United Kingdom are connected. In these winters, unusual large-scale weather patterns led to exceptionally warm conditions in the Arctic whereas in the UK there were persistent cold temperatures, heavy snowfall and freezing rain. These resulted in disruptions to transport, energy supply and power transmission, and agricultural damage; all with significant economic costs. These record-breaking winters were preceded by reductions in summer and autumn Arctic sea ice cover. Whilst a number of studies have proposed possible connections between these, the physical processes that could explain such a connection remain unclear. Furthermore, it is unclear how future projected sea ice loss will effect the UK weather and climate. This research will use climate models to gain insight into these critical issues. In a model setting, the sea ice cover can be manipulated in a controlled manner to reveal how and by what processes it effects the wider climate system. This research aims to provide an improved understanding of the local and remote climate responses to changing sea ice conditions, and the mechanisms that govern these responses. It will shed light on whether the recent winters are relatively isolated and random events, or instead are a consequence of the dwindling Arctic ice cover. Improving our understanding and modeling of the factors affecting the climate system response to Arctic sea ice loss will improve our ability to anticipate, mitigate and adapt to future climate change, and hence the potential environmental, socio-economic and political impacts that may result.The research will be undertaken at the University of Exeter, in partnership with the UK Meteorological Office Hadley Centre and the US National Center for Atmospheric Research. It complements and extends upon a NERC-funded 5-year intensive programme of Arctic Science within the UK.

北极的气候正在迅速变化，其海冰正在以越来越快的速度融化。自1979年以来，常年海冰覆盖面积已减少近一半。2011年，夏季海冰的损失接近历史最高纪录。在过去的五年里，九月份的海冰数量是现代记录中最低的五个。海冰的这种不可阻挡的退缩可能对全球气候系统产生深远的影响。迫切需要对未来北极海冰状况进行科学预测，以便为决策提供信息。该项目的目的是增进我们对北极气候变化及其对北方半球中纬度地区（包括联合王国）天气和气候的影响的了解，以及对支配这些相互作用的物理过程的了解。这一目标将通过对观测结果的补充分析和最先进的气候模型实验来实现，北极海冰的变化会影响其上方的大气，并可能导致天气模式的大规模变化，从而将北极的变化“传达”到遥远的地区。2009/10和2010/11年英国异常寒冷的冬天提供了北极和英国气候如何联系的很好的例子。在这些冬天，不寻常的大规模天气模式导致北极异常温暖，而在英国则持续寒冷，大雪和冻雨。这些灾害导致交通、能源供应和电力传输中断，农业遭受破坏;所有这些都造成了巨大的经济损失。在这些破纪录的冬季之前，夏季和秋季北极海冰覆盖面积减少。虽然一些研究提出了这些之间可能的联系，但可以解释这种联系的物理过程仍然不清楚。此外，目前还不清楚未来预计的海冰损失将如何影响英国的天气和气候。这项研究将使用气候模型来深入了解这些关键问题。在模式设置中，海冰覆盖可以以受控的方式进行操纵，以揭示它如何以及通过什么过程影响更广泛的气候系统。这项研究的目的是提供一个更好的了解当地和远程气候变化的海冰条件的反应，以及管理这些反应的机制。它将揭示最近的冬天是相对孤立和随机的事件，还是北极冰盖减少的结果。提高我们对影响气候系统对北极海冰损失响应的因素的理解和建模，将提高我们预测、缓解和适应未来气候变化的能力，从而提高可能产生的潜在环境、社会经济和政治影响。这项研究将在埃克塞特大学进行，与英国气象局哈德利中心和美国国家大气研究中心合作。它补充并扩展了英国NERC资助的为期5年的北极科学密集计划。

项目成果

Reply to 'Drivers of the 2013/14 winter floods in the UK'

• DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2613
• 发表时间: 2015-06
• 期刊: Nature Climate Change
• 影响因子: 30.7
• 作者: C. Huntingford;T. Marsh;Adam A. Scaife;E. Kendon;J. Hannaford;A. Kay;M. Lockwood;C. Prudhomme;N. Reynard;S. Parry;J. Lowe;J. Screen;H. C. Ward;M. Roberts;P. Stott;V. Bell;Mark J. Bailey;A. Jenkins;T. Legg;F. Otto;N. Massey;N. Schaller;J. Slingo;M. Allen

Modeling the Arctic freshwater system and its integration in the global system: Lessons learned and future challenges

• DOI: 10.1002/2015jg003120
• 发表时间: 2016-03
• 期刊: Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences
• 作者: C. Lique;M. Holland;Y. Dibike;D. Lawrence;J. Screen

Potential influences on the United Kingdom's floods of winter 2013/14

• DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2314
• 发表时间: 2014-09-01
• 期刊: NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
• 影响因子: 30.7
• 作者: Huntingford, Chris;Marsh, Terry;Allen, Myles R.
• 通讯作者: Allen, Myles R.

Projected changes in regional climate extremes arising from Arctic sea ice loss

• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/084006
• 发表时间: 2015-08
• 期刊: Environmental Research Letters
• 影响因子: 6.7
• 作者: J. Screen;C. Deser;Lantao Sun

Arctic amplification decreases temperature variance in northern mid- to high-latitudes

• DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2268
• 发表时间: 2014-07-01
• 期刊: NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
• 影响因子: 30.7
• 作者: Screen, James A.