High Impact Weather Events in Eurasia: Selected, Simulated and Storified

欧亚大陆的高影响天气事件：精选、模拟和记录

基本信息

批准号：
NE/P006760/1
负责人：
James Screen
金额：
$ 42.08万
依托单位：
UNIVERSITY OF EXETER
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2016
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2016 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FP006760%2F1
关键词：
Impact Weather Events Eurasia Selected

项目摘要

HIWAVES3 facilitates a dialogue between climate modelers, impact modelers and partners in different geographical regions with knowledge of local societal relevant meteorological events to construct stories of selected high-impact extreme events, simulated for present-day and future climate conditions. The story includes the origin of the extreme event from a meteorological perspective, its inter-regional linkages, its predictability, its societal impact and how climate change affects its magnitude and probability. Such stories, made available for schools, the general public and governments, are effective communication means, more so than bare numbers about the expected mean temperature increase, precipitation changes in percentages and such. Based on surveys, extreme summer events with large societal impacts, like droughts and floods, will be selected from the recent past for China, India and Europe. Similar events will be identified in large ensembles of global climate simulations. The size of the ensembles allows an analysis of the inter-regional linkages between the Arctic, the Midlatitudes and the Indian Monsoon region through large-scale Rossby waves and other meteorological factors leading to the extreme, like soil-moisture and sea-surface temperature conditions. In addition, a one in a thousand year event in China, India and Europe, although not witnessed in the recent past, will be analysed. The predictability of the event, weeks to months in advance will be assessed through additional simulations. Using empirical methods and process-based models, the impact on crop yields and economy will be estimated as well as the number of premature deaths. Using large ensembles under projected 2050 conditions the effect of climate change on these extremes and their impacts will be analysed. This research material is translated into powerful stories about concrete events that illustrate how climate affects man, man affects climate, how different geographical regions are connected and how extreme the weather might get. The meteorological data of these events will be made available for further impact studies.

HIWAVES3促进了气候建模者，影响建模者和在不同地理区域的伙伴之间的对话，并了解当地社会相关的气象事件，以构建所选高影响力极端事件的故事，并为当今和未来的气候条件进行模拟。这个故事包括从气象的角度，区域间联系，其可预测性，社会影响以及气候变化如何影响其规模和概率的方式。这样的故事是为学校，公众和政府提供的，是有效的沟通手段，而不是预期的平均温度升高，百分比的降水变化等裸露的数字。根据调查，将从最近的中国，印度和欧洲选出具有巨大社会影响的极端夏季事件，例如干旱和洪水。在全球气候模拟的大集合中将确定类似的事件。合奏的大小允许分析北极，中低位和印度季风之间的区域间连接，通过大规模的罗斯比波和其他气象因素，导致极端，例如土壤 - 摩西裂和海面温度条件。此外，将分析在中国，印度和欧洲一千年的活动中，尽管最近没有见过，但仍将进行分析。事件的可预测性，将提前几周到几个月通过其他模拟评估。使用经验方法和基于过程的模型，将估计对农作物产量和经济的影响以及过早死亡的数量。使用大型合奏在预计的2050条件下，将分析气候变化对这些极端的影响及其影响。该研究材料被转化为有关具体事件的有力故事，这些故事说明了气候如何影响人类，人类影响气候，不同地理区域的联系方式以及天气的极端情况。这些事件的气象数据将用于进一步的影响研究。