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High Impact Weather Events in Eurasia: Selected, Simulated and Storified

欧亚大陆的高影响天气事件：精选、模拟和记录

基本信息

批准号：
NE/P006760/1
负责人：
James Screen
金额：
$ 42.08万
依托单位：
UNIVERSITY OF EXETER
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2016
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2016 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FP006760%2F1
关键词：
Impact Weather Events Eurasia Selected

项目摘要

HIWAVES3 facilitates a dialogue between climate modelers, impact modelers and partners in different geographical regions with knowledge of local societal relevant meteorological events to construct stories of selected high-impact extreme events, simulated for present-day and future climate conditions. The story includes the origin of the extreme event from a meteorological perspective, its inter-regional linkages, its predictability, its societal impact and how climate change affects its magnitude and probability. Such stories, made available for schools, the general public and governments, are effective communication means, more so than bare numbers about the expected mean temperature increase, precipitation changes in percentages and such. Based on surveys, extreme summer events with large societal impacts, like droughts and floods, will be selected from the recent past for China, India and Europe. Similar events will be identified in large ensembles of global climate simulations. The size of the ensembles allows an analysis of the inter-regional linkages between the Arctic, the Midlatitudes and the Indian Monsoon region through large-scale Rossby waves and other meteorological factors leading to the extreme, like soil-moisture and sea-surface temperature conditions. In addition, a one in a thousand year event in China, India and Europe, although not witnessed in the recent past, will be analysed. The predictability of the event, weeks to months in advance will be assessed through additional simulations. Using empirical methods and process-based models, the impact on crop yields and economy will be estimated as well as the number of premature deaths. Using large ensembles under projected 2050 conditions the effect of climate change on these extremes and their impacts will be analysed. This research material is translated into powerful stories about concrete events that illustrate how climate affects man, man affects climate, how different geographical regions are connected and how extreme the weather might get. The meteorological data of these events will be made available for further impact studies.

HIWAVES3促进了气候模型师、影响模型师和不同地理区域的伙伴之间的对话，他们了解当地的社会相关气象事件，以构建针对当前和未来气候条件模拟的选定的高影响极端事件的故事。故事包括从气象角度来看极端事件的起源、其区域间联系、其可预测性、其社会影响以及气候变化如何影响其规模和概率。这些向学校、公众和政府提供的故事是有效的沟通手段，而不是关于预期平均气温上升、降水量百分比变化等的简单数字。根据调查，中国、印度和欧洲将从最近几年选出具有重大社会影响的极端夏季事件，如干旱和洪水。类似的事件将在全球气候模拟的大型集合中确定。集合的规模使得可以通过大规模的Rossby波和导致极端情况的其他气象因素，如土壤水分和海面温度条件，分析北极、中纬度和印度季风地区之间的区域间联系。此外，还将分析在中国、印度和欧洲发生的千年一遇的事件，尽管最近没有目睹这一事件，但将对其进行分析。将通过额外的模拟来评估提前几周到几个月发生的事件的可预测性。利用经验方法和基于过程的模型，将估计对作物产量和经济的影响以及过早死亡的人数。利用预测的2050年条件下的大型集合，将分析气候变化对这些极端情况的影响及其影响。这些研究材料被翻译成关于具体事件的强有力的故事，展示了气候如何影响人类，人类如何影响气候，不同地理区域是如何联系在一起的，以及天气可能会变得多么极端。这些事件的气象数据将提供给进一步的影响研究。