Earthquakes without frontiers: a partnership for increasing resilience to seismic hazard in the continents

地震无国界：增强大陆抗震能力的伙伴关系

• 批准号: NE/J019771/1
• 负责人: John Young
• 金额: $ 42.24万
• 依托单位: Overseas Development Institute
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2012
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2012 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FJ019771%2F1
• 关键词: Earthquakes; without; frontiers; partnership; increasing

Between 2 and 2.5 million people have died in earthquakes since 1900, and approximately two-thirds of those deaths have occurred in the continental interiors, far from the plate boundaries. Over this time interval, advances in the scientific understanding of earthquakes have been translated into impressive resilience in regions where the hazard is well understood (eg California, Chile, and Japan). Here, resilience is defined as the ability of a community to resist, accommodate, or adapt to the effects of an earthquake, to maintain critical basic functions, and to recover after the event. Comparable advances have not, however, taken place in most parts of the continental interiors. Instead, many parts of the continental interiors, and particularly the Alpine-Himalayan belt, have seen a major increase in vulnerability to earthquakes in the last few decades, due to a wide range of social, economic, and governance issues. Increasing resilience to continental earthquakes and their related hazards is therfore an urgent scientific and societal priority. This goal requires a holistic view of earthquakes, and collaboration between physical scientists, social scientists, practitioners, and governments on a scale that has not yet been attempted. Our project knits together three groups with extensive and successful track records in (i) the science of earthquakes and related hazards [COMET+, the Dynamic Earth and Geohazards research group in the National Centre of Earth Observation, and the British Geological Survey Hazards Group] (ii) exploring the social science of resilience to emerging hazards and risks [Institute of Hazard, Risk and Resilience, University of Durham, and associated researchers] and (iii) the use of research to promote evidence-based policy [Overseas Development Institute].First, we shall establish a global partnership between researchers from six UK universities, two UK research centers, and representatives of a wide range of governmental and non-governmental organisations from countries across the Alpine-Himalayan belt. This partnership will be focused on communication and sharing of research needs and knowledge gaps, basic research findings and outputs, and new approaches for building resilience to earthquakes across the region.This partnership will carry out coupled physical- and social-science research in three case-study areas (China, central Asia, and the Himalayan front). Our understanding of earthquake occurrence across this large region is currently too poor to provide detailed estimates of likely earthquake probabilities and effects at the sub-national scales needed by communities - let alone to provide forecasts of earthquake occurrence. One component of the project involves research into the locations of active faults across the region, the rates at which they are currently deforming, and the ground shaking that they are likely to produce. This basic physical science research, which will also include the effects of secondary hazards such as landsliding, will provide baseline scenarios about the hazards in forms that are meaningful for, and usable by, the communities at risk.At the same time, we shall map and identify the societal factors that help or hinder the creation of resilience to those physical hazards. This holistic approach to resilience will include investigation of cultural practices and adaptations, economic considerations, social mechanisms, and the role that governance at all scales plays in determining how resilience communities are to earthquakes.The overall framework of this project, provided by the ODI's RAPID methodology, will allow us to draw upon the expertise of the partner organisations, and the research findings outlined above, to generate a set of evidence-based toolkits and policy recommendations that together will define the pathways by which resilience to earthquakes can best be increased, both in the case-study areas and across the entire partnership.

自1900年以来，有2至250万人在地震中死亡，其中约三分之二的死亡发生在大陆室内，远离板块边界。在此时间间隔中，对地震的科学理解的进步已转化为众所周知的危险区域的令人印象深刻的韧性（例如加利福尼亚，智利和日本）。在这里，弹性被定义为社区抵抗，适应或适应地震的影响，维持关键基本功能的能力，并在事件发生后恢复。但是，在大陆室内大部分地区的大部分地区都没有实现可比的进步。取而代之的是，由于广泛的社会，经济和治理问题，在过去的几十年中，大陆室内室内的许多部分，尤其是高山 - 希马拉亚带的地震脆弱性的大幅增加。因此，对大陆地震及其相关危害的韧性增加是紧迫的科学和社会优先事项。这个目标需要对尚未尝试的规模进行整体地震，社会科学家，从业人员和政府之间的合作。我们的项目编织三个小组，在（i）（i）地震和相关危害科学[Comet+，国家地球观察中心的动态地球和地球扎士研究小组以及英国地质调查危险小组中]（ii）探索对新兴危害和风险的恢复能力的社会科学（II I IMPERAINCE I I I I I I I I I MISSSICTION INSCARTION I I I I I I I I I I S SISCERATION [II I IMSSICATION），基于证据的政策[海外发展研究所]。首先，我们将建立来自英国六所大学，两个英国研究中心的研究人员之间的全球伙伴关系，以及来自高山 - 希马拉亚山带国家 /地区各国的众多政府和非政府组织的代表。该伙伴关系将集中在沟通和共享研究需求和知识差距，基础研究发现和成果以及建立对整个地区地震的韧性的新方法上。该合作伙伴将在三个案例研究区（中国，中亚和犹太人前沿）进行耦合的物理和社会科学研究。目前，我们对这个大区域的地震发生的理解太差了，无法在社区所需的次国国家范围内详细估计，更不用说提供地震发生的预测了。该项目的一个组成部分涉及对整个地区主动故障的位置的研究，当前变形的速度以及可能产生的地面震动。这项基本的物理科学研究还将包括诸如陆地滑动之类的次要危害的影响，将提供基线方案，以了解对处于风险的社区有意义和可用的形式的危害。在同一时间，我们将绘制并确定有助于或阻碍这些物理危害产生弹性的社会因素。这种弹性的整体方法将包括对文化实践和适应，经济考虑，社会机制的调查，以及治理在各种规模上的作用在确定弹性社区对地震中如何对地震进行的研究。将定义在案例研究区域和整个伙伴关系中，最好提高对地震的弹性的途径。

项目成果

Pathways to earthquake resilience in China

中国抗震救灾之路

• 发表时间: 2015
• 作者: ODI

Earthquake science in DRR policy and practice in Nepal

尼泊尔 DRR 政策和实践中的地震科学

• 发表时间: 2016
• 作者: Oven, K.J.