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VARIABLE RATES OF RESPONSE BY SPECIES TO CLIMATE CHANGE

物种对气候变化的不同反应率

基本信息

批准号：
NE/K00378X/1
负责人：
Tom Oliver
金额：
$ 15.71万
依托单位：
NERC CEH (Up to 30.11.2019)
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2013
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2013 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FK00378X%2F1
关键词：
VARIABLE RATES RESPONSE SPECIES CLIMATE

项目摘要

Recent research on the ecological consequences of climate warming has demonstrated that a wide range of vertebrate, invertebrate and plant species have, on average, shifted their distributions towards the poles and to higher elevations. However, individual species vary greatly in their rates of range expansion. The source of this variation is unknown, but is vital to study if we are to understand the fundamental limits on species' distributions, to identify those species that require conservation action, and thereby to devise evidence-based conservation strategies. The proposed research will evaluate why species vary in the rates and directions that their leading-edge (high latitude) range boundaries have shifted over the past 40 years. Our approach will be to focus first on whether climate factors explain most of the observed variation, and then consider habitat factors, using explanatory variables that can be computed and tested across many species and taxa. We will evaluate whether variation in range expansion is determined primarily by variation in the sensitivities of individual species to different components of local climate. We will then address whether suitable habitats are available to colonise, and hence whether this additionally affects species' rates of response. For any remaining unexplained variation, we will then consider dispersal and other species' attributes (body size, development patterns) that might affect the likelihood of species colonising climatically-suitable areas that contain appropriate habitats. We will capitalise on extensive data sets available to examine range changes over the past four decades of climate warming. Our research will primarily use Lepidoptera as our focal model taxon (~ 135 study species). We will test the broader significance of our findings by extending our studies to >300 species from ~14 vertebrate and invertebrate taxa, and by exploring sources of within-species variation in expansion rates (via project PhD studentships). The project has the potential to develop a novel level of fundamental understanding of the dynamics of species' range boundaries and to identify factors constraining species-specific responses to climate change. Outputs from this research will also lead to the development of evidence-based conservation strategies for biodiversity under future climate change.

最近关于气候变暖生态后果的研究表明，平均而言，大量脊椎动物、无脊椎动物和植物物种的分布已向两极和更高海拔地区转移。然而，各个物种的范围扩张速度差异很大。这种变异的来源尚不清楚，但如果我们要了解物种分布的基本限制，识别需要采取保护行动的物种，从而制定基于证据的保护策略，那么研究至关重要。拟议的研究将评估物种前沿（高纬度）范围边界在过去 40 年中变化的速度和方向的变化原因。我们的方法将首先关注气候因素是否解释了大部分观察到的变化，然后考虑栖息地因素，使用可以在许多物种和类群中计算和测试的解释变量。我们将评估范围扩大的变化是否主要由个体物种对当地气候不同组成部分的敏感性的变化决定。然后，我们将讨论是否有合适的栖息地可供殖民，以及这是否会额外影响物种的反应率。对于任何剩余的无法解释的变异，我们将考虑扩散和其他物种的属性（体型、发育模式），这些属性可能会影响物种在包含适当栖息地的气候适宜地区定居的可能性。我们将利用广泛的数据集来研究过去四十年气候变暖的范围变化。我们的研究将主要使用鳞翅目作为我们的焦点模型分类单元（约 135 个研究物种）。我们将通过将我们的研究扩展到约 14 个脊椎动物和无脊椎动物类群的超过 300 个物种，并探索物种内扩张率变异的来源（通过项目博士生奖学金）来测试我们的发现的更广泛意义。该项目有可能对物种范围边界的动态产生新的基本理解，并确定限制物种对气候变化的特定反应的因素。这项研究的成果还将有助于制定未来气候变化下基于证据的生物多样性保护战略。