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How does ocean warming and steric sea level rise depend on carbon emissions?

海洋变暖和海平面上升如何取决于碳排放？

基本信息

批准号：
NE/K012789/1
负责人：
Richard Williams
金额：
$ 30.8万
依托单位：
University of Liverpool
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2014
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2014 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FK012789%2F1
关键词：
How does ocean warming steric

项目摘要

There is widespread concern about how climate is responding to the on going rise in atmospheric CO2 from carbon emissions and land use changes. In our view, the climate response can be divided into the following stages: 1. Past and on going increases in atmospheric CO2 are leading to a global warming of up to 0.6C over the last 50 years. The regional variability is though much larger than this global signal. 2. Continuing emissions are increasing atmospheric CO2 and driving a heat flux into the ocean, leading to ocean warming and steric sea level rise. The amount of warming is sensitive to the carbon emission scenario, as well as the rate of carbon uptake by the ocean and terrestrial system. 3. The regional distribution of warming and steric sea level rise is sensitive to how the ocean interior takes up heat, involving the transfer of surface properties into the thermocline and deep ocean. 4. After emissions cease, there will be a thermal adjustment of the lower atmosphere, and the net heat flux into the ocean will cease, and so ocean warming and steric sea level will eventually likewise cease. 5. As well as a thermal equilibrium being reached, the atmosphere and ocean approach a carbon equilibrium after emissions cease, on a timescale of perhaps several hundred years to a thousand years. At this equilibrium, the final atmospheric CO2 and the amount of climate warming is related to cumulative carbon emissions based on our idealised theory.The climate warming and steric sea level rise will be investigated using diagnostics of (i) present day temperature and salinity observations, allowing the steric sea level to be diagnosed;(ii) thought experiments with a range of ocean and climate models on timescales of centuries to several thousand years, designed to explore how the ocean warming spreads from the sea surface into the ocean interior, which ultimately determines the steric sea level rise;(iii) comparison with diagnostics of state of the art climate models, integrated for a century;(iv) comparison with idealised theory, relevant for when emissions cease;and (iv) finally a down scaling to provide bounds on the steric sea level response on a regional scale.This combination of the theory and Earth System models of intermediate complexity will allow a wide parameter space to be explored for a range of emission scenarios, much broader than that usually employed within IPCC assessments for the next 100 years. The study has the potential to provide accessible bounds for steric sea level rise, relevant for policy makers interested in different energy policies, and a link to end users is provided via the collaboration with the Hadley Centre.

人们普遍关注气候如何应对碳排放和土地利用变化造成的大气二氧化碳持续上升。在我们看来，气候应对可以分为以下几个阶段：1。在过去的50年里，大气中二氧化碳的增加导致全球变暖高达0.6摄氏度。然而，区域变化性比全球信号大得多。2.持续的排放正在增加大气中的二氧化碳，并将热通量推入海洋，导致海洋变暖和海平面上升。变暖的程度对碳排放情景以及海洋和陆地系统的碳吸收率很敏感。3.变暖和空间海平面上升的区域分布对海洋内部如何吸收热量很敏感，涉及到表面性质向温跃层和深海的转移。4.排放停止后，低层大气将进行热调整，进入海洋的净热通量将停止，因此海洋变暖和空间海平面最终也将停止。5.在达到热平衡的同时，大气和海洋在排放停止后也会接近碳平衡，这可能需要几百年到一千年的时间。根据我们的理想理论，在这个平衡下，最终的大气CO2和气候变暖的量与累积的碳排放量有关。气候变暖和空间海平面上升将通过以下诊断来研究：（i）目前的温度和盐度观测，允许诊断空间海平面; ㈡用一系列海洋和气候模型进行思想实验，时间跨度从几百年到几千年，目的是探索海洋变暖如何从海面蔓延到海洋内部，最终决定空间海平面上升;（三）与综合了一个世纪的最新气候模式的诊断比较;（四）与与排放停止时相关的理想化理论比较;和（四）最后是一个缩小尺度，以提供在区域尺度上的空间海平面响应的界限。中等复杂性将允许为一系列排放情景探索更广泛的参数空间，比气专委今后100年评估中通常使用的参数空间要广泛得多。该研究有可能提供空间海平面上升的可访问边界，与对不同能源政策感兴趣的决策者相关，并通过与哈德利中心的合作提供与最终用户的联系。