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Mechanistic controls of surface warming by ocean heat and carbon uptake

海洋热量和碳吸收对地表变暖的机械控制

基本信息

批准号：
NE/N009789/1
负责人：
Richard Williams
金额：
$ 51.61万
依托单位：
University of Liverpool
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2016
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2016 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FN009789%2F1
关键词：
Mechanistic controls surface warming ocean

项目摘要

We are all aware of how carbon emissions are leading to concern about a warming of the planet. In our view, the climate response to carbon emissions can be divided into the following stages: 1. Past and on going increases in atmospheric CO2 are leading to a global warming of up to 0.6C over the last 50 years. The regional variability is though much larger than this global signal. 2. Continuing emissions are increasing atmospheric CO2 and driving a heat flux into the ocean, leading to ocean warming. The amount of warming is sensitive to the carbon emission scenario, as well as the rate of carbon uptake by the ocean and terrestrial system. 3. The regional distribution of warming and carbon drawdown is sensitive to how the ocean interior takes up heat and carbon, involving the transfer of surface properties into the thermocline and deep ocean. 4. In the future, after emissions cease may be after many hundreds of years, the atmosphere and ocean will approach an equilibrium with each other. At this point, the final atmospheric CO2 and the amount of climate warming is simply related to cumulative sum of all the previously carbon emitted.One of the key findings of the latest IPCC report is how climate model projections suggest that global warming varies nearly linearly with cumulative carbon emissions. This response is not fully explained or understood, in terms of the essential underlying mechanisms or why different climate models reveal a different amount of warming to each other.We have established a new theory to explain how surface warming varies in time with carbon emissions. The aim of the proposal is to investigate the climate warming in the following manner:(i) apply our new theory of how surface warming compares to cumulative carbon emissions, modified from an equilibrium response by the transient uptake of heat and carbon by the ocean and terrestrial systems;(ii) conduct diagnostics of how the ocean is taking up heat, examining how the ocean is ventilated in terms of volumetric changes in ocean density classes;(iii) develop ocean ventilation experiments with a range of ocean and climate models on timescales of decades to a thousand years, designed to explore the extent that the ocean uptake of heat and carbon are similar to each other, and assess their partly compensating effects on how surface warming links to carbon emissions; (iv) compare with and analyse diagnostics of state of the art climate models, integrated for a century, including climate models driven by emissions, terrestrial uptake of heat and carbon, and radiative forcing from non-CO2 greenhouse gases and aerosols. Our new theoretical framework has the potential to provide (i) improved understanding of the mechanisms controlling the relationship between surface warming and carbon emissions, particularly focusing on the role of the ocean; (ii) traceability between different ocean and climate models, identifying clearly which factors are leading to different climate responses; (iii) reconcile Earth System model investigations over a wider parameter regime with IPCC class climate models.This study is relevant for policy makers interested in different energy policies, and a link to end users is provided via the collaboration with the Hadley Centre and NOAA GFDL. The study emphases the importance of engaging with the wider public by developing 4 targeted short and accessible videos on the climate problem, emphasising our new viewpoint.

我们都知道碳排放如何导致对地球变暖的担忧。在我们看来，气候对碳排放的反应可以分为以下几个阶段：1。在过去的50年里，大气中二氧化碳的增加导致全球变暖高达0.6摄氏度。然而，区域变化性比全球信号大得多。2.持续的排放正在增加大气中的二氧化碳，并将热通量带入海洋，导致海洋变暖。变暖的程度对碳排放情景以及海洋和陆地系统的碳吸收率很敏感。3.变暖和碳减少的区域分布对海洋内部如何吸收热量和碳很敏感，涉及到将表面特性转移到温跃层和深海。4.在未来，在排放停止后可能是数百年后，大气和海洋将相互接近平衡。在这一点上，最终的大气CO2和气候变暖的量只是与所有先前排放的碳的累积总和有关。IPCC最新报告的关键发现之一是气候模型预测如何表明全球变暖与累积碳排放量几乎呈线性变化。这种反应还没有得到充分的解释或理解，在基本的基本机制方面，或者为什么不同的气候模型揭示了彼此不同的变暖量。我们建立了一个新的理论来解释地表变暖如何随着碳排放的时间而变化。该提案的目的是以下列方式调查气候变暖：㈠应用我们关于表面变暖如何与累积碳排放量相比较的新理论，该理论是根据海洋和陆地系统瞬时吸收热量和碳的平衡反应修正的; ㈡对海洋如何吸收热量进行诊断，根据海洋密度等级的体积变化研究海洋如何通风; ㈢利用一系列海洋和气候模型开展海洋通风实验，时间跨度从几十年到一千年，旨在探索海洋吸收热量和碳的相似程度，并评估它们对地表变暖与碳排放之间联系的部分补偿效应; ㈣比较和分析世纪最先进的综合气候模型的诊断，包括由排放、陆地吸收热量和碳驱动的气候模型，以及来自非二氧化碳温室气体和气溶胶的辐射强迫。我们的新理论框架有可能提供（i）更好地了解控制地表变暖和碳排放之间关系的机制，特别是关注海洋的作用;（ii）不同海洋和气候模型之间的可追溯性，明确识别哪些因素导致不同的气候响应;（iii）使地球系统模式研究在较广泛的参数范围内与政府间气候变化专门委员会的气候模式相一致。并通过与哈德利中心和NOAA GFDL的合作提供了与最终用户的链接。这项研究强调了与更广泛的公众接触的重要性，通过开发4个关于气候问题的有针对性的短片和可访问的视频，强调了我们的新观点。