Determining and understanding substorm energy loss and partitioning

亚暴是对近地空间的一种可重复的类似地震的扰动，它显然是不可预测的，在2小时到1天或更长时间后会再次出现，并向高层大气中倾倒通常为10亿焦耳的能量，相当于10个俄克拉荷马州龙卷风或美国武器库中最大的核武器。亚暴的不稳定性和可变的大小使其成为预测高层大气状态的最大不确定性来源。它最明显的影响是极光，这将是很高兴知道它何时发生，以便我们可以计划我们的北极假期，但亚暴预测对于减轻高层大气自然变化对地球静止卫星通信和导航，低空卫星轨道和遥感，电网以及石油和矿产勘探的影响也很重要。预测也是对我们科学理解的终极考验。要取得进展，就需要测量和分析亚暴的变化，以便测试和开发基于数学和物理的模型。我们已经知道亚暴时间的统计数据，并且已经用一个简单的数学模型解释了这一点（这个模型也被用来理解大脑中的神经元放电！）。然而，了解和理解亚暴大小的变化要困难得多，因为它需要同时测量极地高层大气的大片区域和进入太空。在这个项目中，我们建议通过使用航天器以及北极和南极的磁强计（复杂的科学罗盘）和雷达网络来检查十多年来的大量亚暴来尝试这一点。由此产生的统计数据将与我们从更有限的观测中所知道的数据以及新的和现有的亚暴理论和模型的预测进行比较。其结果将是知道像一个真正的大亚暴是多么可能，可能会把事情搞砸，以及模型来解释为什么，并希望何时可能发生。

The substorm is a repeatable earthquake-like disturbance to near-Earth Space, which, apparently unpredictably, recurs after anything from 2 hours to a day or more and dumps typically one thousand million million Joules of energy into the upper atmosphere equivalent to ten Oklahoma tornados or the largest nuclear weapon in the US arsenal. The substorm's intermittency and variable size makes it arguably the greatest source of uncertainty in predicting the state of the upper atmosphere. Its most obvious effect is the aurora, which would be nice to know when its happening so that we could plan our Arctic holidays, but substorm prediction is also important for mitigating the effects of natural changes in the upper atmosphere on geostationary satellite communications and navigation, low-altitude satellite orbits and remote sensing, electricity power grids, and oil and mineral prospecting. Prediction is also the ultimate test for our scientific understanding. Progress requires measuring and analysing substorm variability in order to test and develop models based on maths and physics. We already know the statistics of substorm timing and have explained this with a simple mathematical model (that has also been used for understanding neuron firing in the brain!). However, knowing and understanding the variability of substorm size is much harder because it requires to measure simultaneously over large regions of the polar upper atmosphere and out into Space.In this project, we propose to attempt this by examining lots of substorms over more than a decade using spacecraft together with networks of magnetometers (sophisticated scientific compasses) and radars in both the Arctic and Antarctic. The resulting stats will be compared with what we already know from much more limited observations and with the predictions of new and existing substorm theories and models. The outcomes will be knowing things like how likely a really big substorm is that could mess things up, as well as models to explain why and hopefully when that might occur.