Analysis of historic drought and water scarcity in the UK: a systems-based study of drivers, impacts and their interactions

干旱和水资源短缺（D & WS）是许多国家（包括英国）生计和福祉的重大威胁。英国部分地区已经面临水资源紧张，并面临着广泛的压力，包括人口增长和日益有限的水资源开采加剧。此外，由于环境变化，许多区域今后可能会变得更加干旱，所有这些都意味着对水资源管理的重大挑战。然而，D & WS不仅仅是自然灾害。还有一系列社会经济和监管因素可能影响干旱的进程，如用水做法和取水许可制度。因此，如果要更好地管理干旱和缺水问题，就需要更详细地了解干旱期间水文气象系统与社会系统之间的联系。 基于对来自广泛部门（水文气象、环境、农业、监管、社会和文化）的信息的分析，该项目将记录和量化自19世纪末以来干旱和水资源短缺的历史，并将编制英国干旱的第一个系统账户（英国干旱清单）。该清单构成了对干旱驱动因素及其影响进行新的水文气象和社会经济联合分析的基础，重点是寻找典型的系统相互作用。预计加强基于系统的理解将改善未来干旱管理和规划的决策，包括与干旱和水资源相关的更知情、因而更有效的公共讨论。因此，第一项任务将开发一个新的基于系统的干旱和水服务概念，用于调查干旱驱动因素、影响及其相互依存关系。第二项任务将建立知识库，供项目和更广泛的NERC英国干旱和水资源短缺方案使用。它涉及汇编数据集和元数据，包括选定的D & WS案例研究事件的数据和信息。D & WS的社会和文化方面的信息将通过口述历史和整理历史上和最近的印刷和广播媒体的报道进行汇编，并将对2010 - 12年干旱的社交媒体进行首次分析。第三项任务将通过将干旱时间表、突出重点事件的部门叙述性年表和新的跨部门干旱指标结合起来，编制干旱清单。为了了解D & WS事件期间社会和环境系统之间的相互作用，第四项任务将：确定一系列干旱中的重要系统相互作用;确定干旱的关键触发因素和阈值;并描述历史记录中干旱系统相互作用变化背后的原因。最后一项也是第五项任务审查了社会经济背景和水资源管理做法如何在历史记录中促进对D & WS事件的复原力，并考虑了未来干旱管理规划变化的影响。它还评估了公众与负责水资源管理的人之间最有效的对话和信息交流形式，这些形式可能有助于在未来的干旱和水资源危机期间取得有益的成果。改进建议和方法，以支持与干旱管理有关的决策;以及，新的战略，以重新构建与D & WS有关的公共话语。

Drought and water scarcity (D&WS) are significant threats to livelihoods and wellbeing in many countries, including the United Kingdom (UK). Parts of the UK are already water-stressed and are facing a wide range of pressures, including an expanding population and intensifying exploitation of increasingly limited water resources. In addition, many regions may become significantly drier in future due to environmental changes, all of which implies major challenges to water resource management. However, D&WS are not simply natural hazards. There are also a range of socio-economic and regulatory factors that may influence the course of droughts, such as water consumption practices and abstraction licensing regimes. Consequently, if drought and water scarcity are to be better managed, there is a need for a more detailed understanding of the links between hydrometeorological and social systems during droughts. Based on an analysis of information from a wide range of sectors (hydrometeorological, environmental, agricultural, regulatory, social and cultural), the project will characterise and quantify the history of drought and water scarcity (D&WS) since the late 19th century and will produce the first systematic account (UK Drought Inventory) of droughts in the UK. The Inventory forms the basis of a novel joint hydro-meteorological and socio-economic analysis of the drivers of drought and their impacts, with a focus on a search for characteristic systems interactions. The enhanced systems-based understanding is expected to improve decision-making for future drought management and planning, including more informed and thus effective public discourse related to D&WS. Currently there are no conceptual models of D&WS that describe interactions between hydrometerological and socio-economic drivers and environmental and societal impacts of droughts. The first task will therefore develop a new systems-based conceptualisation of D&WS. This will be used to investigate drought drivers, impacts and their interdependencies. The second task will produce the knowledge base for use within the project and the wider NERC UK Drought and Water Scarcity Programme. It involves the compilation of datasets and metadata, including data and information for selected case study episodes of D&WS. Information on the social and cultural aspects of D&WS will be compiled from oral histories and collation of reports in the historic and recent print and broadcast media, and the first analysis of social media from the 2010-12 drought will be carried out. The third task will develop the Drought Inventory by a novel combination of drought timelines, sector-specific narrative chronologies highlighting key events, and the production of new cross-sectoral drought indicators. To understand the interactions between social and environmental systems during D&WS episodes, the fourth task will: identify significant systems interactions across a range of droughts; identify key triggers and thresholds for droughts; and, describe the reasons behind any changes in systems interactions in droughts over the historic record. The final and fifth task examines how socio-economic context and water resource management practices contributed to resilience to episodes of D&WS in the historic record and considers the implications for changes in planning for the management of future droughts. It also provides an assessment of what are the most effective forms of dialogue and information exchange between the public and those responsible for water resource management that may contribute to beneficial outcomes during future episodes of D&WS. The key research outcomes will be: a systems-based understanding of D&WS in the context of multiple environmental and societal drivers; an accessible, integrated cross-sector UK Drought Inventory; improved advice and methods to support decision making related to drought management; and, new strategies to re-frame public discourse related to D&WS.