DEVELOPING A DROUGHT NARRATIVE RESOURCE IN A MULTI-STAKEHOLDER DECISION-MAKING UTILITY FOR DROUGHT RISK MANAGEMENT

这个创新的跨学科项目旨在开发一种易于使用、以证据为基础的资源，可用于干旱风险管理的决策。为了实现这一目标，我们将把来自干旱科学和情景建模（使用数学模型预测干旱影响）的信息与利益相关者的参与和叙事结合起来。虽然以前的干旱影响研究往往侧重于使用数学模型，但这个项目非常不同。该项目将通过多方合作，整合艺术、人文和社会科学的研究方法，以及水文、气象、农业和生态科学知识。将选择英格兰、威尔士和苏格兰的七个案例研究集水区（由共同水资源连接的地区）来反映英国的水文、社会经济和文化差异。对干旱影响的研究将在不同的尺度上进行——从小块试验到局部流域尺度。将利用公民科学和利益攸关方参与城市和农村地区的小区试验，促进有关干旱风险及其缓解措施的对话。该项目将：(i)调查不同利益相关者对何时发生干旱和需要采取行动的看法；（ii）研究水位和温度如何影响对干旱的感知；探讨政策决定对干旱管理的影响；（iv）考虑对人类和生态系统造成不利干旱影响的用水者行为；利用以往的干旱经验和社区知识，评价用水冲突、协同作用和权衡。该项目涉及多个领域，包括供水；卫生、商业、农业/园艺、建筑环境、采掘业和生态系统服务，在7个案例研究集水区内。通过讲故事的方法，科学家将与不同的干旱利益相关者交流前沿科学，而这些利益相关者将反过来交流他们的知识。利益相关者包括：建筑业；园丁及土地分配人；小型和大型企业；地方政府;紧急规划者;康乐用水者；生物多样性经理;公共卫生专业人员——身体和精神卫生；以及当地社区/公众。利益攸关方会议将收集各种数据，包括：-不同利益攸关方对干旱及其原因的看法-关于干旱发生和缓解战略的当地知识（例如，对节水的态度，对可用水量减少的反应）-关于如何应对干旱和提高个人/社区抗旱能力的见解-洪水和干旱交替的影响。案例研究中的利益相关者群体以及其他使用社交媒体的群体。这些信息将被分析，并与干旱科学相结合，以开发一种创新的基于网络的决策工具。这些数据将反馈到干旱建模和未来情景构建中，以期探索各种政策选择。这将有助于确定现在和未来的水资源可用性，重点关注南北和南北气候梯度过去、现在和未来的干旱期。该项目将尽可能成为“开放科学”——通过项目网站保持对研究问题、数据、结果、方法、叙述、出版物和其他产出的开放、实时访问，并随着项目的进展而更新。项目产出将包括：纳入科学叙述资源的决策支助效用；7个案例研究流域的水文模型；一个共享项目资源的社交媒体网络平台；在不同尺度上缓解干旱/干旱后恢复的物种响应/管理方案数据库，以及在不同尺度上应对干旱/缺水的管理指南。

This innovative interdisciplinary project aims to develop an easy-to-use, evidence-based resource which can be used in decision-making in drought risk management. To achieve this, we will bring together information from drought science and scenario-modelling (using mathematical models to forecast the impacts of drought) with stakeholder engagement and narrative storytelling. While previous drought impact studies have often focused on using mathematical modelling, this project is very different. The project will integrate arts, humanities and social science research methods, with hydrological, meteorological, agricultural and ecological science knowledge through multi-partner collaboration. Seven case study catchments (areas linked by a common water resource) in England, Wales and Scotland will be selected to reflect the hydrological, socio-economic and cultural contrasts in the UK. Study of drought impacts will take place at different scales - from small plot experiments to local catchment scale. Citizen science and stakeholder engagement with plot experiments in urban and rural areas will be used as stimuli for conversations about drought risk and its mitigation. The project will: (i) investigate different stakeholder perceptions of when drought occurs and action is needed; (ii) examine how water level and temperature affect drought perception; (iii) explore the impact of policy decisions on drought management; (iv) consider water users' behaviours which lead to adverse drought impacts on people and ecosystems and; (v) evaluate water-use conflicts, synergies and trade-offs, drawing on previous drought experiences and community knowledge.The project spans a range of sectors including water supply; health, business, agriculture/horticulture, built environment, extractive industries and ecosystem services, within 7 case-study catchments. Through a storytelling approach, scientists will exchange cutting edge science with different drought stakeholders, and these stakeholders will, in turn, exchange their knowledge. Stakeholders include those in: construction; gardeners and allotment holders; small and large businesses; local authorities; emergency planners; recreational water users; biodiversity managers; public health professionals - both physical and mental health; and local communities/public. The stakeholder meetings will capture various data including:- different stakeholder perceptions of drought and its causes- local knowledge around drought onset and strategies for mitigation (e.g. attitudes to water saving, responses to reduced water availability)- insights into how to live with drought and increase individual/community drought resilience- the impact of alternating floods and droughtsThe information will be shared within, and between, stakeholder groups in the case-studies and beyond using social media. This information will be analysed, and integrated with drought science to develop an innovative web-based decision-making utility. These data will feedback into the drought modelling and future scenario building with a view to exploring a variety of policy options. This will help ascertain present and future water resources availability, focusing on past, present and future drought periods across N-S and W-E climatic gradients. The project will be as far as possible be 'open science' - maintaining open, real-time access to research questions, data, results, methodologies, narratives, publications and other outputs via the project website, updated as the project progresses.Project outputs will include: the decision-making support utility incorporating science-narrative resources; hydrological models for the 7 case-study catchments; a social media web-platform to share project resources; a database of species responses/management options to mitigate drought/post-drought recovery at different scales, and management guidelines on coping with drought/water scarcity at different scales.