MaRIUS: Managing the Risks, Impacts and Uncertainties of droughts and water Scarcity

MaRIUS：管理干旱和缺水的风险、影响和不确定性

• 批准号: NE/L010399/1
• 负责人: Jim Freer
• 金额: $ 81.34万
• 依托单位: University of Bristol
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2014 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FL010399%2F1
• 关键词: MaRIUS; Managing; Risks; Impacts; Uncertainties

Impacts of water scarcity on the environment, society and the economy are complex. They are profoundly shaped by human choices and trade-offs between competing claims to water. Current practices for management of droughts in the UK have largely evolved from experience. Each drought tests institutions and society in distinctive ways. Yet it is questionable whether this empirical and heuristic approach is fit for purpose in the future, because the past is an incomplete guide to future conditions.The MaRIUS project will introduce and explore a risk-based approach to the management of droughts and water scarcity, drawing upon global experiences and insights from other hazards to society and the environment. MaRIUS will demonstrate, in the context of real case studies and future scenarios, how risk metrics can be used to inform management decisions and societal preparedness. Enquiry will take place at a range of different scales, from households and farms to river basins and national scales. Fine-scale granular analysis is essential for understanding drought impacts. Aggregation to broader scales provides evidence to inform critical decisions in water companies, national governments and agencies. Analysis on a range of timescales will demonstrate the interactions between long-term planning and short-term decision making, and the difference this makes to impacts and risks.Underpinning the risk-based approach to management of water scarcity, the MaRIUS project will develop an integrated suite of models of drought processes and impacts of water scarcity. A new 'event set' of past and possible future hydroclimatic drought conditions will enable extensive testing of drought scenarios. The representation of drought processes in hydrological models at catchment and national scales will be enhanced, enabling improved analysis of drought frequency, duration and severity. Models for assessment of the risks of harmful water quality, in rivers and reservoirs, will be developed. The representation of drought impacts in models of species abundance and biodiversity in rivers and wetland ecosystems, such as fens, lowland and upland bogs, will be enhanced. A model of agricultural practices and output will be used to analyse drought impacts on agriculture and investigate the benefits of preparatory steps that may be taken by farmers. The potential economic losses due to water scarcity will be analysed through a combination of 'bottom-up' study of households and businesses, and consideration of supply chain dependence on drought-sensitive industries.The environmental, economic and social dimensions of water scarcity will be synthesised into a computer visualisation tool (an 'impacts dashboard'). This will enable exploratory analysis of feedbacks between impacts. For example, agricultural land use changes, driven in part by drought frequency, will, in turn, influence water quality and ecosystems. The interdisciplinary analysis will enable comparison of likely outcomes arising from applying both pre-existing drought management arrangements (e.g. restrictions on water use, abstraction limits) and enhanced/innovative management strategies (e.g. use of outlook forecasts, dynamic tariffs).Social science and stakeholder engagement are deeply embedded in the MaRIUS project, which will be framed by a critical analysis of how impacts of droughts and water scarcity are currently understood and managed by key stakeholders, and how this is shaped by institutions, regulation and markets. First-hand experience and 'collective memory' of communities affected now, and historically, by water scarcity will provide new understandings of the social and cultural dimensions of droughts. On-going engagement between the project social scientists, natural scientists and stakeholders will help to ensure that the outputs from the MaRIUS project, including the 'impacts dashboard', are matched to their needs and to the evolving policy context.

水资源短缺对环境、社会和经济的影响是复杂的。它们受到人类的选择和对水的相互竞争之间的权衡的深刻影响。英国当前的干旱管理实践很大程度上是根据经验发展而来的。每一次干旱都以不同的方式考验着机构和社会。然而，这种经验和启发式的方法是否适合未来的目的是值得怀疑的，因为过去并不能完全指导未来的情况。MaRIUS 项目将引入和探索基于风险的干旱和水资源短缺管理方法，借鉴全球经验以及对社会和环境的其他危害的见解。 MaRIUS 将在真实案例研究和未来情景的背景下展示如何使用风险指标为管理决策和社会准备提供信息。调查将在一系列不同的范围内进行，从家庭和农场到流域和国家范围。精细粒度分析对于了解干旱影响至关重要。更广泛范围内的汇总为水务公司、国家政府和机构的关键决策提供了依据。对一系列时间尺度的分析将展示长期规划和短期决策之间的相互作用，以及这对影响和风险的影响。MaRIUS 项目将开发一套干旱过程和水资源短缺影响的综合模型，以基于风险的水资源短缺管理方法为基础。过去和未来可能的水文气候干旱条件的新“事件集”将使对干旱情景的广泛测试成为可能。将加强流域和国家尺度水文模型中干旱过程的表征，从而改进对干旱频率、持续时间和严重程度的分析。将开发河流和水库有害水质风险评估模型。将加强河流和湿地生态系统（如沼泽、低地和高地沼泽）的物种丰富度和生物多样性模型中干旱影响的代表性。将使用农业实践和产出模型来分析干旱对农业的影响，并调查农民可能采取的准备措施的好处。将通过对家庭和企业的“自下而上”研究以及考虑供应链对干旱敏感行业的依赖相结合的方式来分析缺水造成的潜在经济损失。缺水的环境、经济和社会层面将被综合到计算机可视化工具（“影响仪表板”）中。这将使对影响之间的反馈进行探索性分析成为可能。例如，部分由干旱频率驱动的农业土地利用变化将反过来影响水质和生态系统。跨学科分析将能够比较应用现有干旱管理安排（例如用水限制、取水限制）和增强/创新管理策略（例如使用前景预测、动态关税）可能产生的结果。社会科学和利益相关者参与深深植根于 MaRIUS 项目中，该项目将通过对干旱如何影响的批判性分析来构建。 目前，主要利益攸关方已了解和管理干旱和水资源短缺问题，以及机构、监管和市场如何影响这一问题。现在和历史上受缺水影响的社区的第一手经验和“集体记忆”将为干旱的社会和文化层面提供新的理解。该项目社会科学家、自然科学家和利益相关者之间的持续参与将有助于确保 MaRIUS 项目的产出（包括“影响仪表板”）符合他们的需求和不断变化的政策背景。

项目成果

Process-based modelling to evaluate simulated groundwater levels and frequencies in a Chalk catchment in south-western England

基于过程的建模，用于评估英格兰西南部 Chalk 流域的模拟地下水位和频率

• DOI: 10.5194/nhess-18-445-2018
• 发表时间: 2018
• 期刊: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
• 影响因子: 4.6
• 作者: Brenner S

Quantifying local rainfall dynamics and uncertain boundary conditions into a nested regional-local flood modeling system

将局部降雨动态和不确定边界条件量化到嵌套的区域-局部洪水建模系统中

• DOI: 10.1002/2016wr019903
• 发表时间: 2017
• 期刊: Water Resources Research
• 影响因子: 5.4
• 作者: Bermúdez M

A novel framework for discharge uncertainty quantification applied to 500 UK gauging stations.

• DOI: 10.1002/2014wr016532
• 发表时间: 2015-07
• 期刊: Water resources research
• 影响因子: 5.4
• 作者: Coxon G;Freer J;Westerberg IK;Wagener T;Woods R;Smith PJ
• 通讯作者: Smith PJ

CAMELS-GB: hydrometeorological time series and landscape attributes for 671 catchments in Great Britain

• DOI: 10.5194/essd-2020-49
• 发表时间: 2020-04
• 期刊: Earth System Science Data
• 影响因子: 11.4
• 作者: G. Coxon;N. Addor;J. Bloomfield;J. Freer;M. Fry;J. Hannaford;N. Howden;Rosanna A. Lane;M. Lewis;E. Robinson;T. Wagener;R. Woods

Improving the theoretical underpinnings of process‐based hydrologic models

• DOI: 10.1002/2015wr017910
• 发表时间: 2016-03
• 期刊: Water Resources Research
• 影响因子: 5.4
• 作者: M. Clark;B. Schaefli;S. Schymanski;L. Samaniego;C. Luce;B. Jackson;J. Freer;J. Arnold;R. Moore-R.