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Impact of atmospheric pollutants on the current and future status of protected habitats.

大气污染物对受保护栖息地当前和未来状况的影响。

基本信息

批准号：
NE/M019888/1
负责人：
Christopher David Field
金额：
$ 7.2万
依托单位：
Manchester Metropolitan University
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Fellowship
财政年份：
2015
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2015 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FM019888%2F1
关键词：
Impact atmospheric pollutants current future

项目摘要

The Environment Agency has a statutory duty to ensure that operations carried out by industrial operations do not have an unacceptable impact on habitats and species protected under the EU Habitats Directive 1992 and the Conservation of Habitats & Species Regulations 2010. Intensive livestock units are a particular type of industrial process that are required to apply to the Environment Agency for a permit under the Environmental Permitting Regulations (England and Wales, 2010). Natural England, Natural Resources Wales, and SEPA are consultees in this process. Much research has linked ecosystem damage to nitrogen deposition from agriculture and fossil fuels with demonstrated impacts on biodiversity, ecosystem services, N saturation and the onset of leaching to freshwaters, in experiments and spatial surveys (Phoenix et al 2012; Stevens et al 2010). Currently, around 60% of UK protected sites are expected to exceed their critical load (RoTAP 2012), yet at many there are limited obvious signs of direct impact from N.This contradiction between the science and site based evidence creates a legislative problem for regulatory bodies with confusion in the dose-response relationships between vegetation and pollution. Modelling based around contemporary pollution suggests a curvi-linear (Field et al 2014), linear (Maskill et al 2010), and threshold responses (Tipping et al 2013). However, the effects of N deposition are thought to be cumulative over time (Phoenix et al 2012) and when species richness values from spatial surveys are modelled using cumulative N, the relationship becomes more linear. It is not clear if this change in relationship type is ecological or mathematical and the legitimacy of either needs further investigation.The use of cumulative N as an alternative to contemporary pollution deposition also raises questions due to the assumption of a blanket, cross-habitat response to cumulative N. Different habitats and the plant functional groups within those habitats respond to long-term pollution over different timescales ranging from a few years to centuries (Evans et al 2006; Posch et al 2011). There are also issues in accurately calculating cumulative deposition, with estimates of long-term pollution to areas which have experienced increases in N deposition over recent decades likely to be too high, whilst estimates for areas with historically high pollution likely to be too low (Fowler et al 2005). The NERC funded Long term Large Scale Project is attempting to more accurately model 200 year cumulative deposition. Dynamic modelling using models incl. MAGIC, GBMOVE and For-SAFE VEG may also offer some solutions to this problem by enabling specific habitat "N-limits" to be calculated, thereby, customising the N response through the addition of a temporal element (Evans et al 2006). Recent testing of models highlights their potential to predict plants species occurrence (Rowe et al 2011) and cover (De Vries et al 2010). An interesting application of dynamic modelling is the reverse calculation of critical loads from modelled vegetation data, with the advantage that future scenarios can be considered (e.g. pollutant reduction). Disadvantages of dynamic modelling include poor forecasting of lower plants that respond directly to N (Smart et al 2005), and a lack of consideration of the different forms of N, particularly the high concentrations of ammonia around intensive farming units (Sheppard et al 2011).Recent research has also suggested that an absolute ecosystem critical load is unlikely, proposing instead ranges of deposition that drive soil properties into optimum zones for plant species (Posch et al 2011). There is some evidence that this has occurred in surveys, with sites resting on a pH threshold, vulnerable to a step-changes (Field et al 2014), and many species occurring over a deposition range though appearing to decline above a change point (Payne et al 2013).

环境署有法定责任确保工业运营不会对受1992年《欧盟鱼类指令》和2010年《鱼类和物种保护条例》保护的栖息地和物种产生不可接受的影响。集约化畜牧业单位是一种特殊类型的工业流程，需要根据《环境许可条例》向环境署申请许可证（英格兰和威尔士，2010年）。英格兰自然资源部、威尔士自然资源部和SEPA是这一过程的咨询对象。在实验和空间调查中，许多研究将生态系统损害与农业和化石燃料的氮沉积联系起来，并证明了对生物多样性、生态系统服务、氮饱和度和淡水浸出的影响（Phoenix等人，2012年; Stevens等人，2010年）。目前，大约60%的英国受保护的网站，预计将超过其临界负荷（RotAP 2012），但在许多有有限的明显的迹象，直接影响从N.这种科学和基于现场的证据之间的矛盾创建了一个立法问题的监管机构在植被和污染之间的剂量-反应关系的混乱。基于当代污染的建模表明了曲线线性（Field et al 2014），线性（Maskill et al 2010）和阈值响应（Tipping et al 2013）。然而，氮沉降的影响被认为是随着时间的推移而累积的（Phoenix等人，2012年），当使用累积氮对空间调查的物种丰富度值进行建模时，这种关系变得更加线性。目前还不清楚这种关系类型的变化是生态学的还是数学的，两者的合理性都需要进一步调查。使用累积氮作为当代污染沉积的替代方案也提出了问题，由于假设一个毯子，跨栖息地响应累积氮。不同的生境和这些生境中的植物功能群在不同的时间尺度上对长期污染作出反应，从几年到几个世纪不等（Evans等人，2006年; Posch等人，2011年）。准确计算累积沉积也存在问题，对近几十年来氮沉积增加的地区的长期污染估计可能过高，而对历史上污染严重的地区的估计可能过低（Fowler et al 2005）。NERC资助的长期大规模项目试图更准确地模拟200年的累积沉积。使用模型进行动态建模，包括MAGIC、GBMOVE和For-SAFE VEG也可以通过计算特定生境的“N限制”来解决这个问题，从而通过添加时间元素来定制N响应（Evans等人，2006年）。最近对模型的测试突出了它们预测植物物种出现（Rowe等人，2011年）和覆盖（De弗里斯等人，2010年）的潜力。动态建模的一个有趣应用是从模拟的植被数据反向计算临界负荷，其优点是可以考虑到未来的情景（例如减少污染物）。动态模拟的缺点包括对直接响应氮的低等植物的预测不佳（Smart et al 2005），以及缺乏对不同形式的N的考虑，特别是集约化农业单元周围的高浓度氨（Sheppard等人，2011年）。最近的研究还表明，绝对的生态系统临界负荷是不可能的，相反，提出了沉积范围，将土壤性质推向植物物种的最佳区域（Posch等人，2011年）。有一些证据表明，这已经发生在调查中，与网站休息的pH阈值，易受阶跃变化（Field等人，2014年），许多物种出现在沉积范围内，但似乎下降到变化点以上（Payne等人，2013年）。