Cities and Sea Level Rise: Flood Hazard Assessment and Adaptation Toolkits

城市和海平面上升：洪水灾害评估和适应工具包

• 批准号: NE/N00471X/1
• 负责人: Nigel Wright
• 金额: $ 6.34万
• 依托单位: University of Leeds
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2015 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FN00471X%2F1
• 关键词: Cities; Sea; Level; Rise; Flood

In a world with continuously increasing urban population, much of which concentrates in coastal cities, the predictions of sea level rise resulting from climate change pose an additional - and at times dramatic - threat not just to sustainability but also to cities' survival. Arup has a wealth of experience and expertise in many of the areas related to coastal flooding and climate change around the world. However, there is a need for creating a consistent approach to such studies, taking advantage of the excellent work that Arup already produces in individual cases, founded on solid scientific knowledge and delivered efficiently. Arup teams in Water, Planning, GIS, Safety Critical Design and Engineering and Arup International Development have been developing processes and tools that share a common agenda, ie resilience to future shocks and challenges. Sea level rise is one of the most prominent challenges faced by cities around the world and is an area where Arup has not only a proven track record but also a clear market interest.In the UK, Arup has been a leading supplier on the Environment Agency and other agencies' flood risk management frameworks, working on several significant coastal flood risk projects such as Hull (the 2nd largest flood risk area in the UK after London with over 100,000 properties at risk) and Bristol (where significant economic growth is proposed on flood vulnerable land). We are working in both these cities on long term planning for sea level rise. The Water team within Infrastructure has developed market-leading tools and knowledge in the assessment of economic damage (using the internationally renowned UK Flood Hazard Research Centre depth damage data), risks to life from flooding, flood modelling, defence design and environmental and social issues in option appraisal. Alongside this, the Arup Water team has recently delivered a report for CIRIA on infrastructure vulnerability to climate change. The global threat of sea level rise, emphasised by the latest IPCC report (AR5), demands an integrated approach not just to the protection of properties and businesses but also urban infrastructure and services. Within Arup there are many tools that exist that can be useful to this end, such as methods for assessing the risks to interconnected infrastructure, hazard and risk assessment methods from the Sellafield resilience team, approaches to value environmental capital and novel engineering techniques to adapt to a changing environment. However, these tools and approaches currently sit within different teams across Arup's international multi-disciplinary teams and offices. This project aims to bring them together into a comprehensive, accessible and project delivery focussed methodology that can be applied by any Arup team in any office around the world.To complement Arup's wealth of knowledge we have teamed up with the University of Leeds and Birkbeck College (University of London) to enhance knowledge and verify our work. Our association with Birkbeck also includes Old Dominion University in the USA, which has strong links with Norfolk, Virginia, the second largest city at sea level rise risk in the USA. These universities have agreed to share their existing knowledge and contacts, including a sea level rise vulnerability assessment tool already tested internationally by Leeds University and the contacts and experience with Norfolk and the various interconnected authorities trying to deal with the issues of sea level rise.The project recognises that tools, methods and theories have true value when they are applied successfully in the real world. To this end, we have established commitments from key cities around the world facing serious challenges from sea level rise to share data and allow Arup to bench test our tools and methods. These cities include: Norfolk (USA), Hull and Bristol and possibly New York and Hong Kong, where Arup has experience in coastal management.

在一个城市人口不断增加的世界里，大部分城市集中在沿海城市，气候变化导致海平面上升的预测不仅对可持续性，而且对城市的生存构成额外的--有时是戏剧性的--威胁。奥雅纳在世界各地与沿海洪灾和气候变化相关的许多领域拥有丰富的经验和专业知识。然而，有必要为此类研究创造一种一致的方法，利用奥雅纳已经在个别案例中做出的出色工作，建立在扎实的科学知识基础上，并有效地交付。奥雅纳在水、规划、地理信息系统、安全关键设计和工程以及奥雅纳国际开发方面的团队一直在开发具有共同议程的流程和工具，即应对未来冲击和挑战的能力。海平面上升是世界各地城市面临的最突出的挑战之一，奥雅纳在这一领域不仅有良好的记录，而且有明确的市场利益。在英国，奥雅纳一直是环境局和其他机构洪水风险管理框架的领先供应商，参与了几个重要的沿海洪水风险项目，如赫尔(英国第二大洪水风险地区，仅次于伦敦，有超过10万处房产面临风险)和布里斯托尔(在洪水脆弱的土地上计划大幅增长经济)。我们正在这两个城市制定海平面上升的长期规划。基础设施内的水务团队开发了市场领先的工具和知识，用于评估经济损失(使用国际知名的英国洪水灾害研究中心深度损害数据)、洪水对生命的风险、洪水模型、防御设计以及方案评估中的环境和社会问题。与此同时，奥雅纳水务团队最近为CIRIA提交了一份关于基础设施易受气候变化影响的报告。政府间气候变化专门委员会的最新报告(AR5)强调了海平面上升的全球威胁，这不仅需要采取综合方法来保护财产和企业，还需要采取综合方法来保护城市基础设施和服务。在奥雅纳内部，有许多工具可以帮助实现这一目标，例如评估互联基础设施风险的方法、Sellafield Resilience团队的危险和风险评估方法、评估环境资本的方法以及适应不断变化的环境的新工程技术。然而，这些工具和方法目前存在于奥雅纳国际多学科团队和办公室的不同团队中。该项目旨在将它们结合在一起，形成一种全面的、可访问的、以项目交付为重点的方法，可以被世界各地任何办公室的任何奥雅纳团队应用。为了补充奥雅纳丰富的知识，我们与利兹大学和伯克贝克学院(伦敦大学)合作，以增强知识并验证我们的工作。我们与Birkbeck的合作还包括美国的Old Dominion大学，该大学与美国海平面上升风险第二大城市弗吉尼亚州的诺福克有着密切的联系。这些大学同意分享他们现有的知识和联系，包括利兹大学已经在国际上测试的海平面上升脆弱性评估工具，以及与诺福克和试图处理海平面上升问题的各种相互关联的当局的联系和经验。该项目认识到，当工具、方法和理论成功应用于现实世界时，它们具有真正的价值。为此，我们已向世界各地面临海平面上升严重挑战的主要城市承诺共享数据，并允许奥雅纳对我们的工具和方法进行试验性测试。这些城市包括：诺福克(美国)、赫尔和布里斯托尔，可能还有纽约和香港，奥雅纳在这些城市拥有沿海管理经验。

项目成果

Cities and sea level rise: a roadmap for flood hazard adaptation.

城市和海平面上升：洪水灾害适应路线图。

• 发表时间: 2015
• 作者: Horn DP

Sea level rise, coastal flood hazard and adaptation assessment toolkit for cities

海平面上升、沿海洪水灾害和城市适应评估工具包

• 发表时间: 2016
• 作者: Donald Daly

Investigating the flood responsiveness of small and medium enterprises using agent-based modelling and simulation

使用基于代理的建模和仿真研究中小企业的洪水响应能力

• DOI: 10.2495/safe-v6-n3-627-635
• 发表时间: 2016
• 期刊: International Journal of Safety and Security Engineering
• 作者: Coates G

Bottom-up multilevel flood hazard mapping by integrated inundation modelling in data scarce cities

• DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129114
• 发表时间: 2023-02
• 期刊: Journal of Hydrology
• 影响因子: 6.4
• 作者: M. Guan;Kaihua Guo;Haochen Yan;N. Wright

Comparison of sustainable flood risk management by four countries - the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, the United States, and Japan - and the implications for Asian coastal megacities

• DOI: 10.5194/nhess-22-2567-2022
• 发表时间: 2022-08-12
• 期刊: NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES
• 影响因子: 4.6
• 作者: Chan, Faith Ka Shun;Yang, Liang Emlyn;Adekola, Olalekan
• 通讯作者: Adekola, Olalekan