TESTING A CAUSAL MODEL OF COMMUNITY-LEVEL ALCOHOL USE, PROBLEMS, AND PREVENTION

第三代基于 PC 的酒精使用和滥用计算机模型是 正在中国开发。 该模型将重现复杂的 20 年历史 圣地亚哥县在酒类零售活动方面的历史， 酒精消费模式、饮酒和驾驶行为、社会规范、 和监管控制。 发表的研究成果、调查数据和 二次数据分析的结果用于定义和 以数学方式指定内部和外部变量之间的关系 模型子系统。 通过设计的迭代过程，一致性 测试和重新设计，模型正在朝着未来的方向进行完善 当它可以作为研究人员和预防专家提供时 用于了解复杂社区动态的可靠、全面的工具 以及估计旨在减少酒精的干预措施的影响 相关问题。 一旦模型结果与实际数据一致 已经实现，将使用圣地亚哥县模型来模拟 1992-2001年期间替代性可行预防措施的影响 干预措施。 当前项目（从1992年12月1日开始到11月30日结束， 1997）提出回答两个重要的研究问题：（1） 模型应用于其他社区时会产生一致的结果吗？和（2） 需要进行哪些结构性改变来确保可转移性 其他社区的榜样？ 第二个问题是：如果一致并且 可以建立可转移性，还有哪些额外的模型增强 需要（如果有）鼓励社区使用该模型作为工具 用于在实际计划之前评估替代预防方案 实施？ 这些问题将在第四代的努力中得到解决。 的 模型将在 12 个不同的社区进行测试和完善。 的 将根据三个标准选择社区： 当地 人口构成、国家酒精饮料控制结构，以及 专注于预防规划的社区组织类型。 每个 年，模型将首先使用来自三个的本地数据进行初始化 社区，然后进行一致性基准测试。 一旦模型 为目标社区、当地提供准确的执行结果 预防专家将接受其使用方面的培训。 后续本地使用 模型的过程将作为流程的一部分进行跟踪和记录 评估的目的是 (a) 确定模型适用于什么条件 最常用和最有效地使用，并且 (b) 确定方法 模型更加用户友好和有用，而不牺牲其一致性 和可转移性。

A third-generation PC-based computer model of alcohol use and abuse is being developed at PRC. The model will reproduce the complex, 20-year history of San Diego County with regard to alcohol retail activity, alcohol consumption patterns, drinking & driving behavior, social norms, and regulatory controls. Published research findings, survey data, and results from secondary data analyses are used to define and mathematically specify relationships among variables within and across the model subsystems. Through an iterative process of design, congruence testing, and redesign, the model is being refined toward the future point when it can be offered to researchers and prevention specialists as a reliable, comprehensive tool for understanding complex community dynamics and for estimating impacts of interventions intended to reduce alcohol- related problems. Once congruence between model results and actual data has been achieved, the San Diego County model will be used to simulate the impact over the period 1992-2001 of alternative feasible prevention interventions. The current project (beginning December 1, 1992 and ending November 30, 1997) proposes to answer two important research questions: (1) will the model yield congruent results when applied to other communities? and (2) what structural changes are needed to insure the transferability of the model to other communities? A secondary question is: if congruency and transferability can be established, what additional model enhancements are required, if any, to encourage communities to use the model as a tool for evaluating alternative prevention options prior to actual program implementation? These questions will be addressed in a fourth-generation effort. The model will be tested and refined in 12 diverse communities. the communities will be selected according to three criteria: local population composition, state alcohol beverage control structure, and type of community organization focused on prevention programming. Each year, the model will first be initialized with local data from three communities, then benchmark-tested for congruence. Once the model performs with demonstrated accuracy for a target community, local prevention specialists will be trained in its use. Subsequent local use of the model will be tracked and documented as part of a process evaluation aimed at (a) determining under what conditions the model is most frequently and effectively used and (b) identifying ways to make the model more user-friendly and useful, without sacrificing its congruency and transferability.