Better understanding of Interregional Teleconnections for prediction in the Monsoon and Poles

更好地了解区域间遥相关以预测季风和极地

• 批准号: NE/P006795/1
• 负责人: Andrew Turner
• 金额: $ 39.05万
• 依托单位: University of Reading
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2016 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FP006795%2F1
• 关键词: Better; understanding; Interregional; Teleconnections; prediction

BITMAP is an Indo-UK-German project to develop better understanding of processes linking the Arctic and Asian monsoon, leading to better prospects for prediction on short, seasonal and decadal scales in both regions. Recent work has suggested that the pole-to-equator temperature difference is an essential ingredient driving variations in the monsoon. BITMAP's initial focus will be on the impact of the temperature difference between pole and equator on the establishment and variation of regional circulations. We will use existing databases of multiple climate models to unpack the impact of different forcing agents (e.g. greenhouse gases and polluting aerosols) on the relative warming of the northern and southern hemispheres and pole-to-equator temperature gradients. Next we will relate the gradient to position of the strongest rainfall and strength and position of monsoon circulation. We will also examine the impact of different pole-to-equator temperatures on hydroclimates of the vulnerable Hindu Kush-Himalaya (HKH) region in High Asia. Next we will test the impact on Arctic circulation patterns of "diabatic" heating arising from the monsoon rainfall (via waves in the atmosphere) by conducting novel experiments with climate models. This will also help us evaluate and improve these models by determining the problems caused by typical monsoon errors (e.g. misplaced tropical rainfall) on simulation of polar climates; we will also explore how errors in model Arctic sea-ice distribution affect the monsoon. Finally we will analyze effects of variations in climate. We will measure and model the impact of typical strong and weak Asian monsoon summers on atmospheric waves that travel to the poles and thereby develop a better understanding of the pathways to Arctic circulation, with implications for predicting sea-ice extent. In the other direction, we will use observations and models to assess the role of the changing Arctic temperatures on the jetstream and on the regularity of heavy rainfall and flooding events that affect South Asia.

BITMAP是一个印度-英国-德国项目，旨在更好地了解北极和亚洲季风之间的联系过程，从而改善这两个区域短期、季节和十年尺度预测的前景。最近的研究表明，两极到赤道的温差是驱动季风变化的一个重要因素。BITMAP最初的重点将是极地和赤道之间的温差对区域环流的建立和变化的影响。我们将使用现有的多个气候模型数据库来揭示不同强迫因子（例如温室气体和污染性气溶胶）对北方和南半球相对变暖以及极地到赤道温度梯度的影响。其次，我们将把梯度与最强降水的位置和季风环流的强度和位置联系起来。我们还将研究不同的极地到赤道温度对高亚洲脆弱的兴都库什-喜马拉雅（HKH）地区水文气候的影响。接下来，我们将通过气候模型进行新的实验，测试季风降雨（通过大气中的波）引起的“非绝热”加热对北极环流模式的影响。这也将有助于我们评估和改进这些模型，通过确定典型的季风误差（例如错位的热带降雨）对极地气候模拟造成的问题，我们还将探讨模型北极海冰分布的误差如何影响季风。最后，我们将分析气候变化的影响。我们将测量和模拟典型的强和弱亚洲季风夏季对大气波的影响，这些大气波传播到两极，从而更好地了解北极环流的途径，并对预测海冰范围产生影响。在另一个方向，我们将利用观测和模型来评估北极温度变化对急流的作用，以及对影响南亚的暴雨和洪水事件的规律性的作用。

项目成果

The 2018 Kerala floods: a climate change perspective

• DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05123-7
• 发表时间: 2020-02-01
• 期刊: CLIMATE DYNAMICS
• 影响因子: 4.6
• 作者: Hunt, Kieran M. R.;Menon, Arathy
• 通讯作者: Menon, Arathy

Extreme Daily Rainfall in Pakistan and North India: Scale Interactions, Mechanisms, and Precursors

• DOI: 10.1175/mwr-d-17-0258.1
• 发表时间: 2018-04-01
• 期刊: MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW
• 影响因子: 3.2
• 作者: Hunt, Kieran M. R.;Turner, Andrew G.;Shaffrey, Len C.
• 通讯作者: Shaffrey, Len C.

Falling Trend of Western Disturbances in Future Climate Simulations

• DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-18-0601.1
• 发表时间: 2019-08-01
• 期刊: JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
• 影响因子: 4.9
• 作者: Hunt, Kieran M. R.;Turner, Andrew G.;Shaffrey, Len C.
• 通讯作者: Shaffrey, Len C.

Dominant patterns of interaction between the tropics and mid-latitudes in boreal summer: causal relationships and the role of timescales

• DOI: 10.5194/wcd-1-519-2020
• 发表时间: 2020-10-15
• 期刊: WEATHER AND CLIMATE DYNAMICS
• 作者: Di Capua, Giorgia;Runge, Jakob;Coumou, Dim
• 通讯作者: Coumou, Dim

A case-study of land-atmosphere coupling during monsoon onset in northern India

印度北部季风爆发期间陆地-大气耦合的案例研究

• DOI: 10.1002/qj.3538
• 发表时间: 2019
• 期刊: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
• 影响因子: 8.9
• 作者: Barton E