Desperately Seeking Space for Nature: a spatial analysis of biodiversity in changing landscape

面对不断变化的自然环境，重要的是要了解人类活动对环境的影响，进而了解环境变化对人类福祉的影响。生物多样性--生物有机体、生态系统和基因的多样性--特别令人感兴趣，因为它在生态系统如何吸收外部冲击和变化，如与气候变化相关的极端情况，并在这些冲击下继续发挥作用方面发挥着作用。生物多样性本身对于前往自然保护区寻找珍稀和独特物种(如鸟类)的人们来说是有价值的。它还在生态系统为人类提供利益的能力方面发挥了一些尚未完全了解的作用，例如，支持提供食物和木材，或支持生态系统净化水、调节洪水和空气质量的能力。作为NERC创新实习的一部分，该项目将由英国鸟类学信托基金(BTO)的研究人员进行。该项目将专注于将BTO/JNCC/RSPB繁殖鸟类调查(BBS)数据与研究人员可以从其家乡机构获得的详细的英国数据集相结合。这包括一个大型的、可理解的英国空间数据集，其中包括以前用于英国国家生态系统评估(UK NEA)的环境、大气和土地利用和土地覆盖数据。研究人员将与BTO合作，开发一套新的预测模型，旨在通过一个单一的建模框架，了解由于土地利用和其他环境和经济变量的变化而导致鸟类数量变化的驱动因素。该项目特别关注由林地和农田鸟类指标组成的物种。这些物种和相关指标是特意选择的，目的是说明土地利用变化对生物多样性的总体影响。英国政府使用这些指标来报告其对保护目标的国际和国家承诺，如英国生物多样性2020计划或CBD的生物多样性战略计划。与一般BTO的工作不同的是，BTO专注于将鸟类建模与经济分析相结合，为BBS数据提供了一个新的视角。这一整合将分为两种类型。首先，鸟类模型将与研究人员的博士工作相结合，评估土地利用变化对鸟类多样性和丰富度的影响偏好。这两项分析的结合将使人们能够了解在哪里可以将有限的公共资源分配给土地利用变化干预措施，从而在环境和经济方面提供最大的效益。其次，鸟类模型将包括一个新的生物多样性模块，用于研究人员所在机构开发的一系列生态系统服务的综合模型(TIM)，以前曾用于为英国的政策提供建议。新模块将在英国国家能源署背景下完成的先前工作的基础上进行扩展，并将允许更好地了解五套生态系统服务与生物多样性的相互作用，和/或允许限制TIM的结果与给定的生物多样性目标(例如，不损失当地鸟类多样性)。作为NERC创新实习的一部分进行的研究旨在在政策和学术方面产生重大影响。鉴于将生态分析与经济数据相结合的目的，这项研究将有助于现有的政策建议，并与国家政策相关。鉴于这项研究的跨学科性质和之前参与研究人员的记录，这项研究很可能有可能发表在领先的学术期刊上，如PNAS或Science。这项工作将主要在BTO的办公室进行，BTO的Gavin Siriwardena博士、UEA的Silvia Ferrini博士和Exeter大学的贝特曼教授将监督这项工作。预计实习将持续6个月。

In face of changing natural environment it is important to understand the impact of human activities on the environment and, in turn, the impact of changing environment on human well-being. Biodiversity - the diversity of living organisms, ecosystems and genes - is of a particular interest, as it plays a role in the way ecosystems can absorb external shocks and changes, such as the extremes associated with climate change, and continue their functioning despite these shocks. Biodiversity itself is of value to people visiting nature reserves in search of rare and unique species such as birds. It also plays some, yet not fully understood, role in ecosystems' ability to provide benefits to people - for example to support provision of food and timber or ecosystems' ability to purify water and regulate floods and air quality.The project undertaken as part of the NERC innovation internship will be conducted by the researcher at the British Trust of Ornithology (BTO). The project will focus on combining the BTO/JNCC/RSPB Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data with a detailed UK dataset to which the researcher has access from his home institutions. This comprise a large and comprehensible spatial UK dataset of environmental, atmospheric and land use and land cover data previously employed for UK National Ecosystem Assessment (UK NEA). Working with the BTO, the researcher will develop a new set of predictive models, aiming to provide an understanding of the drivers of change in bird abundance as results of changes in land use and other environmental and economic variables in a single modelling framework.In particular the project focuses on species comprising Woodland and Farmland bird indicators. These species and associated indicators are purposely chosen to provide indications of the impacts that land use change has on biodiversity in general. The UK government uses these indicators for reporting on its international and national commitments to conservation targets, such as UK Biodiversity 2020 plan or CBD's Strategic Plan for Biodiversity.The distinguishing factor from general BTO's work is the focus on integration of the bird modelling with economic analyses, providing a novel perspective on the BBS data. This integration will be of two types. Firstly, the bird models will be integrated with the researcher's PhD work on valuing preferences for land use change impacting on birds' diversity and abundance. The integration of the two analyses will allow an understanding of where limited public resources can be allocated for land use change interventions to provide greatest benefits in both environmental and economic terms. Secondly, the bird modelling will comprise a new biodiversity module for The Integrated Model (TIM) of a range of ecosystems services that was developed at researcher's home institution and was previously used to advise UK policy. The new module will expand on the previous work, which was done in the context of UK NEA, and will allow better understanding of the interplay of five sets of ecosystem services with biodiversity and/or allow restricting the TIM's outcomes with given biodiversity targets (e.g. no loss of local bird diversity).The research undertaken as part of the NERC innovation internship is aiming to have a high impact both in terms of policy and academia. Given the aim of integrating the ecological analyses with economic data, the research will contribute to existing policy advice and is of relevance to national policy. The research is likely to have a potential for publication in leading academic journals, such as PNAS or Science, given the interdisciplinary nature of the research and the previous track of records of the researchers involved.This work will be conducted predominantly at the BTO's offices in Thetford, under the supervision of Dr. Gavin Siriwardena at BTO, Dr. Silvia Ferrini at UEA and Prof. Bateman at the University of Exeter. The internship is projected to last 6 months.