Desperately Seeking Space for Nature: a spatial analysis of biodiversity in changing landscape

面对不断变化的自然环境，了解人类活动对环境的影响以及环境变化对人类福祉的影响是很重要的。生物多样性——生物体、生态系统和基因的多样性——是一个特别值得关注的问题，因为它在生态系统吸收外部冲击和变化（例如与气候变化有关的极端事件）并在这些冲击下继续发挥功能方面发挥着作用。生物多样性本身对参观自然保护区寻找稀有和独特物种（如鸟类）的人很有价值。它还在生态系统为人类提供利益的能力方面发挥了一些作用，但尚未得到充分理解，例如支持提供食物和木材，或生态系统净化水和调节洪水和空气质量的能力。作为NERC创新实习的一部分，该项目将由英国鸟类学信托基金会（BTO）的研究人员进行。该项目的重点是将BTO/JNCC/RSPB繁殖鸟类调查（BBS）的数据与研究人员可以从其家乡机构访问的详细的英国数据集结合起来。这包括一个大型的、可理解的英国空间数据集，包括环境、大气、土地利用和土地覆盖数据，以前用于英国国家生态系统评估（UK NEA）。研究人员将与英国生物多样性研究所合作，开发一套新的预测模型，目的是在一个单一的模型框架内，了解鸟类数量变化的驱动因素，即土地利用和其他环境和经济变量的变化。该项目特别关注林地和农田鸟类指标的物种。有意选择这些物种和相关指标，以提供土地利用变化对生物多样性总体影响的指标。英国政府使用这些指标来报告其对保护目标的国际和国家承诺，例如英国生物多样性2020计划或生物多样性公约的生物多样性战略计划。与一般BTO的工作不同的是，该研究侧重于将鸟类建模与经济分析相结合，为BBS数据提供了一个新的视角。这种集成有两种类型。首先，将鸟类模型与研究人员的博士研究结合起来，研究土地利用变化对鸟类多样性和丰度的影响。将这两种分析结合起来，就可以了解有限的公共资源可以分配给哪些土地利用变化干预措施，以在环境和经济方面提供最大的利益。其次，鸟类模型将包括一个新的生物多样性模块，用于研究人员所在机构开发的一系列生态系统服务的综合模型（TIM），该模型以前用于为英国政策提供建议。新的模块将扩展之前在英国国家环境局背景下完成的工作，并将更好地理解五组生态系统服务与生物多样性的相互作用，并/或允许限制TIM的结果与给定的生物多样性目标（例如，不损失当地鸟类多样性）。作为NERC创新实习的一部分所进行的研究旨在在政策和学术方面产生重大影响。鉴于将生态分析与经济数据结合起来的目的，这项研究将有助于现有的政策咨询，并与国家政策有关。考虑到这项研究的跨学科性质以及相关研究人员以前的记录，这项研究很可能有可能在《美国国家科学院院刊》（PNAS）或《科学》（Science）等主要学术期刊上发表。这项工作将主要在英国医学研究所位于塞特福德的办公室进行，由英国医学研究所的Gavin Siriwardena博士、东安格利亚大学的Silvia Ferrini博士和埃克塞特大学的Bateman教授监督。预计实习时间为6个月。

In face of changing natural environment it is important to understand the impact of human activities on the environment and, in turn, the impact of changing environment on human well-being. Biodiversity - the diversity of living organisms, ecosystems and genes - is of a particular interest, as it plays a role in the way ecosystems can absorb external shocks and changes, such as the extremes associated with climate change, and continue their functioning despite these shocks. Biodiversity itself is of value to people visiting nature reserves in search of rare and unique species such as birds. It also plays some, yet not fully understood, role in ecosystems' ability to provide benefits to people - for example to support provision of food and timber or ecosystems' ability to purify water and regulate floods and air quality.The project undertaken as part of the NERC innovation internship will be conducted by the researcher at the British Trust of Ornithology (BTO). The project will focus on combining the BTO/JNCC/RSPB Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data with a detailed UK dataset to which the researcher has access from his home institutions. This comprise a large and comprehensible spatial UK dataset of environmental, atmospheric and land use and land cover data previously employed for UK National Ecosystem Assessment (UK NEA). Working with the BTO, the researcher will develop a new set of predictive models, aiming to provide an understanding of the drivers of change in bird abundance as results of changes in land use and other environmental and economic variables in a single modelling framework.In particular the project focuses on species comprising Woodland and Farmland bird indicators. These species and associated indicators are purposely chosen to provide indications of the impacts that land use change has on biodiversity in general. The UK government uses these indicators for reporting on its international and national commitments to conservation targets, such as UK Biodiversity 2020 plan or CBD's Strategic Plan for Biodiversity.The distinguishing factor from general BTO's work is the focus on integration of the bird modelling with economic analyses, providing a novel perspective on the BBS data. This integration will be of two types. Firstly, the bird models will be integrated with the researcher's PhD work on valuing preferences for land use change impacting on birds' diversity and abundance. The integration of the two analyses will allow an understanding of where limited public resources can be allocated for land use change interventions to provide greatest benefits in both environmental and economic terms. Secondly, the bird modelling will comprise a new biodiversity module for The Integrated Model (TIM) of a range of ecosystems services that was developed at researcher's home institution and was previously used to advise UK policy. The new module will expand on the previous work, which was done in the context of UK NEA, and will allow better understanding of the interplay of five sets of ecosystem services with biodiversity and/or allow restricting the TIM's outcomes with given biodiversity targets (e.g. no loss of local bird diversity).The research undertaken as part of the NERC innovation internship is aiming to have a high impact both in terms of policy and academia. Given the aim of integrating the ecological analyses with economic data, the research will contribute to existing policy advice and is of relevance to national policy. The research is likely to have a potential for publication in leading academic journals, such as PNAS or Science, given the interdisciplinary nature of the research and the previous track of records of the researchers involved.This work will be conducted predominantly at the BTO's offices in Thetford, under the supervision of Dr. Gavin Siriwardena at BTO, Dr. Silvia Ferrini at UEA and Prof. Bateman at the University of Exeter. The internship is projected to last 6 months.