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CURB CO2: Carbon Uptake Revisited - Biases Corrected using Ocean Observations

遏制二氧化碳：重新审视碳吸收——利用海洋观测纠正偏差

基本信息

批准号：
NE/P015042/1
负责人：
Paul Halloran
金额：
$ 12.84万
依托单位：
UNIVERSITY OF EXETER
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2016
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2016 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FP015042%2F1
关键词：
CURB CO2 Carbon Uptake Revisited

项目摘要

When we emit carbon dioxide (CO2) to the atmosphere through industrial activity, only around half of that CO2 remains in the atmosphere, with the remainder being taken up approximately equally through photosynthesis by plants on land and being absorbed by the oceans. These anthropogenic CO2 'sinks' are essentially saving us from a large part of the global warming that we would otherwise be experiencing. New evidence suggests that our estimates of how this fraction of CO2 that stays in the atmosphere is changing, and will continue to change, may be too high, meaning that there may be more hope that we can prevent atmospheric CO2 concentrations rising too high than was previously thought.Whilst we can estimate how much CO2 we are presently emitting, and can measure the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere, and therefore work out how strong these sinks are (i.e. how much CO2 they are taking out of the atmosphere), we must calculate how this number will change in the future if we are to determine how much CO2 we can emit as a society without exceeding dangerous CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere. This project aims to give us a better understanding of what this future change in the fraction of CO2 staying in the atmosphere is, by correcting a bias we have identified in the models we use to make these projections.We make projections of how the land and ocean CO2 sinks may change in the future using increasingly comprehensive Earth System Models (which are climate modes which also contain a representation of additional processes such as the carbon cycle). While these models are the best possible tools we have to simulate future climate change, they are still far from perfect. We have shown that in the North Atlantic, which is the most intense ocean CO2 sink, these models underestimate how quickly the CO2 absorption is increasing, and have identified what the models are doing wrong. This project will extend this work from the North Atlantic to the full ocean, and by correcting for the biases that cause the models to under-predict this change, produce new and improved future estimates of ocean CO2 absorption.One we have our improved estimates of future changes in the strength of the ocean carbon sink, we will account for how the land CO2 sink responds to this, and produce a set of new scenarios describing how much CO2 can be emitted through human activity through time if we are not to exceed the atmospheric CO2 concentrations linked to global warming of 1.5 to 2 degrees C above preindustrial temperatures.The overarching aim of this project is to provide UK and international governments with the best possible impartial information from which they can plan how best to work towards the global warming targets (the 'Paris Agreement') set at the Paris Climate Conference in December 2015.

当我们通过工业活动向大气中排放二氧化碳时，只有大约一半的二氧化碳留在大气中，其余部分通过陆地上植物的光合作用和海洋吸收而被吸收。这些人为的CO2“汇”基本上是从我们将经历的全球变暖的很大一部分中拯救我们。新的证据表明，我们对留在大气中的二氧化碳比例如何变化的估计可能太高，并将继续变化，这意味着我们可能有更多的希望防止大气中二氧化碳浓度上升得比以前认为的更高。虽然我们可以估计我们目前排放的二氧化碳量，并可以测量大气中二氧化碳的浓度，因此，计算出这些汇的强度（即它们从大气中吸收了多少二氧化碳），如果我们要确定我们作为一个社会可以排放多少二氧化碳而不超过大气中危险的二氧化碳浓度，我们必须计算出这个数字在未来会如何变化。这个项目旨在让我们更好地了解留在大气中的二氧化碳比例的未来变化，通过修正我们在进行这些预测的模型中发现的偏差，我们使用日益全面的地球系统模型来预测陆地和海洋CO2汇在未来可能如何变化（这些气候模式还包含碳循环等其他过程的代表）。虽然这些模型是我们模拟未来气候变化的最佳工具，但它们还远远不够完美。我们已经表明，在北大西洋，这是最强烈的海洋二氧化碳汇，这些模型低估了二氧化碳吸收的速度增加，并确定了模型的错误。该项目将把这项工作从北大西洋扩展到整个海洋，并通过纠正导致模型低估这种变化的偏差，产生新的和改进的海洋二氧化碳吸收的未来估计。我们对海洋碳汇强度的未来变化有了改进的估计，我们将解释陆地二氧化碳汇对此的反应，并产生一组新的情景，描述如果我们不想超过与工业化前温度以上1.5至2摄氏度的全球变暖相关的大气二氧化碳浓度，那么随着时间的推移，人类活动可以排放多少二氧化碳。该项目的首要目标是为英国和国际政府提供最好的可能的公正信息，从中他们可以计划如何最好地实现2015年12月巴黎气候大会上设定的全球变暖目标（“巴黎宣言”）。