Space Weather Impacts on Ground-based Systems (SWIGS)

空间天气对地面系统的影响 (SWIGS)

基本信息

批准号：
NE/P016715/1
负责人：
James Wild
金额：
$ 44.59万
依托单位：
Lancaster University
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2017
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2017 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FP016715%2F1
关键词：
Space Weather Impacts Ground based

项目摘要

Space weather describes the changing properties of near-Earth space, which influences the flow of electrical currents in this region, particularly within the ionosphere and magnetosphere. Space weather results from solar magnetic activity, which waxes and wanes over the Sunspot cycle of 11 years, due to eruptions of electrically charged material from the Sun's outer atmosphere. Particularly severe space weather can affect ground-based, electrically conducting infrastructures such as power transmission systems (National Grid), pipelines and railways. Ground based networks are at risk because rapidly changing electrical currents in space, driven by space weather, cause rapid geomagnetic field changes on the ground. These magnetic changes give rise to electric fields in the Earth that act as a 'battery' across conducting infrastructures. This 'battery' causes geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) to flow to or from the Earth, through conducting networks, instead of in the more resistive ground. These GIC upset the safe operation of transformers, risking damage and blackouts. GIC also cause enhanced corrosion in long metal pipeline networks and interfere with railway signalling systems.Severe space weather in March 1989 damaged power transformers in the UK and caused a long blackout across Quebec, Canada. The most extreme space weather event known - the 'Carrington Event' of 1859 - caused widespread failures and instabilities in telegraph networks, fires in telegraph offices and auroral displays to low latitudes. The likelihood of another such extreme event is estimated to be around 10% per decade. Severe space weather is therefore recognised in the UK government's National Risk Register as a one-in-two to one-in-twenty year event, for which industry and government needs to plan to mitigate the risk. Some studies have estimated the economic consequence of space weather and GIC to run to billions of dollars per day in the major advanced economies, through the prolonged loss of electrical power.There are mathematical models of how GIC are caused by space weather and where in the UK National Grid they may appear (there are no models of GIC flow in UK pipelines or railway networks). However these models are quite limited in what they can do and may therefore not provide a true picture of GIC risk in grounded systems, for example highlighting some locations as being at risk, when in fact any problems lie elsewhere. The electrical model that has been developed to represent GIC at transformer substations in the National Grid misses key features, such as a model of the 132kV transmission system of England and Wales, or any model for Northern Ireland. The conductivity of the subsurface of the UK is known only partly and in some areas not at all well. (We need to know the conductivity in order to compute the electric field that acts as the 'battery' for GIC.) The UK GIC models only 'now-cast', at best, and they have no forecast capability, even though this is a stated need of industry and government. We do not have tried and tested now-cast models, or even forecast models, of magnetic variations on the ground. This is because of our under-developed understanding of how currents flow in the ionosphere and magnetosphere, how these interconnect and how they relate to conditions in the solar wind. In this project we will therefore upgrade existing or create new models that relate GIC in power, pipe and railway networks to ionospheric, magnetospheric and solar wind conditions. These models will address the issues we have identified with the current generation of models and their capabilities and provide accurate data for industry and governments to assess our risk from space weather. In making progress on these issues we will also radically improve on our physical understanding of the way electrical currents and electromagnetic fields interact near and in the Earth and how they affect the important technologies we rely on.

太空天气描述了近地空间的变化，这会影响该区域的电流流动，尤其是在电离层和磁层内。太阳天气是由太阳能磁性活动引起的，太阳能磁活动在11年的黑子周期中蜡和减弱，这是由于来自太阳外部大气中电荷材料的喷发。特别严重的太空天气会影响地面，电力传导基础设施，例如电力传输系统（国家电网），管道和铁路。基于地面的网络处于危险之中，因为由太空天气驱动的太空中的迅速变化的电流会导致地面的快速地磁场变化。这些磁变化会导致地球上的电场，这些电场在导电基础设施中充当“电池”。这种“电池”导致地磁诱导的电流（GIC）通过导电网络而不是在更具电阻的地面上流向或从地球流过。这些GIC破坏了变形金刚的安全操作，风险损坏和停电。 GIC还会导致长金属管道网络的腐蚀增强，并干扰铁路信号系统。1989年3月，Severe Space天气损坏了英国的电源变压器，并在加拿大魁北克省造成了长时间的停电。最极端的太空天气事件 - 1859年的“卡林顿活动” - 在电报网络中引起了广泛的故障和不稳定性，电报办公室的火灾和极光陈列的火灾造成了低纬度。据估计，另一项极端事件的可能性约为每十年10％。因此，在英国政府的国家风险登记册中认可了严重的太空天气是二分之一年的二十分之一的活动，行业和政府需要计划降低风险。一些研究估计，通过长时间的电力损失，主要发达经济体的太空天气和GIC每天的经济后果每天达到数十亿美元。但是，这些模型在他们可以做的事情上非常有限，因此可能无法提供地面系统中GIC风险的真实情况，例如强调某些位置处于风险中，而实际上任何问题都在其他地方。已经开发出来代表GIC在国家电网中代表GIC的电气模型错过了关键特征，例如英格兰和威尔士的132KV传输系统的模型，或任何北爱尔兰的模型。英国地下的电导率仅在某些地区被众所周知，在某些地区根本不太熟悉。（我们需要知道电导率才能计算充当GIC的电场。）仅英国GIC模型“现在已经播种”，并且它们没有预测能力，即使这是对工业和政府的既需需求。我们没有尝试和测试过地面上磁性变化的现已播种模型，甚至预测模型。这是因为我们对电离层和磁层中的电流如何流动如何相互连接以及它们如何与太阳风中的条件联系起来的欠发达。因此，在这个项目中，我们将升级现有的或创建将GIC，管道和铁路网络与电离层，磁层和太阳风条件相关联的新模型。这些模型将解决我们与当前的模型及其功能相关的问题，并为行业和政府提供准确的数据，以评估我们从太空天气中的风险。在这些问题上取得进展时，我们还将从根本上改善我们对电流和电磁场在地球附近和地球上相互作用的方式以及它们如何影响我们依赖的重要技术的方式的物理理解。

项目成果

期刊论文数量（10）

专著数量（0）

科研奖励数量（0）

会议论文数量（0）

专利数量（0）

Modeling "Wrong Side" Failures Caused by Geomagnetically Induced Currents in Electrified Railway Signaling Systems in the UK

DOI：
10.1029/2023sw003625
发表时间：
2023-12-01
期刊：
SPACE WEATHER-THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND APPLICATIONS
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Patterson, C. J.;Wild, J. A.;Boteler, D. H.
通讯作者：
Boteler, D. H.

Assessing the Impact of Weak and Moderate Geomagnetic Storms on UK Power Station Transformers

DOI：
10.1029/2021sw003021
发表时间：
2022-04-01
期刊：
SPACE WEATHER-THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND APPLICATIONS
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Lewis, Z. M.;Wild, J. A.;Walach, M-T
通讯作者：
Walach, M-T

The ground effects of severe space weather

恶劣太空天气的地面影响

DOI：
10.1093/astrogeo/aty194
发表时间：
2018
期刊：
Astronomy & Geophysics
影响因子：
0.8
作者：
Beggan C
通讯作者：
Beggan C

Summary of space weather worst-case environments (2nd revised edition)

太空天气最坏情况环境总结（第二修订版）

DOI：
发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
0
作者：
Hapgood, M. A.
通讯作者：
Hapgood, M. A.

Modeling the Impact of Geomagnetically Induced Currents on Electrified Railway Signaling Systems in the United Kingdom

DOI：
10.1029/2022sw003385
发表时间：
2023-03-01
期刊：
SPACE WEATHER-THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND APPLICATIONS
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Patterson, C. J.;Wild, J. A.;Boteler, D. H.
通讯作者：
Boteler, D. H.

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James Wild其他文献

Brain energy metabolism in ALS: A phosphorus-31 magnetic resonance spectroscopy study

DOI：
10.1016/j.jns.2021.119412
发表时间：
2021-10-01
期刊：
Conference abstract
影响因子：
作者：
Matilde Sassani;James Alix;Christopher Mcdermott;Kathleen Baster;Nigel Hoggard;James Wild;Heather Mortiboys;Pamela Shaw;Iain Wilkinson;Thomas Jenkins
通讯作者：
Thomas Jenkins