Combination Hazard of Extreme rainfall, storm Surge & high Tide on estuarine infrastructure (CHEST)

极端降雨、风暴潮的组合危害

• 批准号: NE/R009007/1
• 负责人: Thomas Coulthard
• 金额: $ 13.45万
• 依托单位: University of Hull
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2017 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FR009007%2F1
• 关键词: Combination; Hazard; Extreme; rainfall; storm

Background and challenges: UK estuaries are at risk from combination flooding. Sea-level rise and predicted changes to UK storm patterns (affecting both surge and river flows) will alter the joint probability of multiple hazard events, making previous understanding of risk, and mitigation measures, potentially obsolete. Existing probabilistic methods for assessing combination hazard (e.g. FD2308) provide only water level hazards, with limited detail on where and when issues may occur, and vitally cannot readily accommodate revised estimates of event distributions due to sea-level rise and climate change. Combination hazards, therefore, present a clear risk to project partner's infrastructure in estuaries (e.g. Flood defences, railways, roads, water treatment works, nuclear power stations), both under present conditions - and more with greater uncertainty in the future. The ability to better forecast the specific locations and timings of such combination hazards will enable effective planning and timely warnings to industry operators, partners and the public. All of our project partners have considerable investments in areas prone to estuarine flooding including flood defences (EA), rail networks (Network Rail), water supplies (Welsh Water) and nuclear power stations (EDF Energy). The scale of national exposure to combination hazard is phenomenal. Taking the Humber alone, the projected economic costs of the 2015 surge tide occurring with 0.3m of sea level rise would be £12.5bn in direct flood damage and £10.8bn in consequential losses. Quite simply, our project partners cannot ignore how combination hazard may increase with climate change. Aims & Objectives: CHEST will assess if the management of combined river-surge-wave-tide flooding in UK estuaries (and surrounding low-lying areas) needs to be amended, especially in the light of sea-level rise and changing climates. This leads to three objectives:1. Establish if the interaction between the combination hazards of rivers, surge, waves and tides is important to resolve for estuarine flood risk.2. Determine which of these factors and in what combination pose the greatest risk. i.e. What is the sensitivity to the different hazards and does it differ in different locations (a) within an estuary (b) between different estuaries?3. With sea-level rise and climate change - ascertain whether the relative importance of the combination hazards change or shift. i.e. with SLR do surges become more dominant?To achieve these objectives, CHEST will use novel, fast numerical models (developed in previous NERC and EA funded projects) to simulate the combination hazard for two contrasting pilot studies (Humber and Dyfi estuaries) where the primary project partners have particular concerns. In a second phase the CHEST modelling framework will be documented, packaged and where necessary tailored to a wider group of additional project partners allowing the application to estuaries around the UK. Deliverables will be predictions in pilot basins of 'worst case' scenarios, system sensitivity to different combination hazards and for the impacts of climate change (Milestones 1, 3 & 4). As requested by PP's these will be in the form of digital maps/data of flood inundation areas, max depth, max velocities, water surface (AOD), flood duration, and a matrix/look up table for combination hazard sensitivity. For the model roll out phase, deliverables will be the software (source and exe) along with documentation and tutorials (Milestone 5). This may also involve tutorials/webinars - as requested by PP's at meetings C and D. Project duration is 10 months involving researchers from the University of Hull and Bangor University. Cost is £104 700 (80%) including 10 months PDRA (Hull); CoI and PI costs and travel for meetings. Lewis' contribution is in kind (20% for 10 months), as a Ser Cymru NRN-LCEE Research Fellow on the QUOTIENT project.

背景和挑战：英国河口面临着洪水泛滥的风险。海平面上升和英国风暴模式的预测变化(同时影响涨潮和河流流量)将改变多重危险事件的联合概率，使之前对风险和缓解措施的理解可能过时。现有的评估综合危险的概率方法(如FD2308)仅提供水位危险，对问题可能发生的地点和时间的详细信息有限，而且极不容易适应海平面上升和气候变化引起的事件分布的修订估计。因此，综合灾害对项目合作伙伴在河口的基础设施(如防洪、铁路、公路、水处理厂、核电站)构成了明显的风险，无论是在目前的条件下，还是在未来更不确定的情况下都是如此。能够更好地预测此类组合危险的具体地点和时间，将能够有效地规划并及时向行业运营商、合作伙伴和公众发出警告。我们所有的项目合作伙伴都在容易发生河口洪水的地区进行了大量投资，包括防洪(EA)、铁路网(Network Rail)、供水(威尔士水)和核电站(EDF Energy)。全国暴露在联合危险中的规模是惊人的。仅以亨伯河为例，预计2015年海平面上升0.3米的潮汐造成的直接洪灾损失将达到125亿GB，相应损失将达到108亿GB。很简单，我们的项目合作伙伴不能忽视气候变化可能带来的综合危害的增加。目的和目标：英国环境保护协会将评估英国河口(和周围低洼地区)的河流-潮汐-波浪-洪水的综合管理是否需要修改，特别是在海平面上升和气候变化的情况下。这导致了三个目标：1.确定河流、潮汐、波浪和潮汐等复合灾害之间的相互作用对于解决河口洪水风险是否重要。确定这些因素中的哪些因素及其组合构成最大的风险。即对不同危害的敏感度是多少，在不同的位置是否有差异(A)在一个河口内，(B)在不同的河口之间？3.随着海平面上升和气候变化--确定综合危害的相对重要性是变化还是转移。也就是说，随着单反，浪涌是否变得更主要？为了实现这些目标，ROST将使用新的、快速的数值模型(在以前的NERC和EA资助的项目中开发)来模拟两个对比的先导研究(Humber和Dyfi河口)的组合危险，在这些研究中，主要项目合作伙伴有特别的担忧。在第二阶段，将对胸部建模框架进行记录、打包，并在必要时为更多的其他项目合作伙伴量身定做，从而使应用程序适用于英国各地的河口。可交付成果将是“最坏情况”情况下试点流域的预测、系统对不同组合灾害的敏感性以及气候变化的影响(里程碑1、3和4)。根据PP的要求，这些将以数字地图/洪水淹没区域、最大深度、最大流速、水面(AOD)、洪水持续时间和组合危险敏感性的矩阵/查找表的形式出现。在模型推出阶段，交付内容将是软件(源代码和可执行文件)以及文档和教程(里程碑5)。这也可能包括教程/网络研讨会--正如方案规划人员在会议C和D上所要求的那样，项目持续时间为10个月，由赫尔大学和班戈大学的研究人员参与。费用为GB 104700(80%)，其中包括10个月的PDRA(船体)；COI和PI费用以及会议旅费。刘易斯的贡献是实物(10个月20%)，作为Ser Cymru NRN-LCEE商项目的研究员。

项目成果

Using historic records of compound flood events to identify site-specific thresholds for flooding in UK estuaries

利用复合洪水事件的历史记录来确定英国河口特定地点的洪水阈值

• DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12938
• 发表时间: 2022
• 作者: Robins P

Development and validation of flood inundation models for estuaries

河口洪水淹没模型的开发和验证

• DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu23-5858
• 发表时间: 2023
• 作者: Vasilopoulos G

Knickpoints in Martian channels indicate past ocean levels

• DOI: 10.1038/s41598-019-51574-2
• 发表时间: 2019-10-22
• 期刊: SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
• 影响因子: 4.6
• 作者: Duran, Sergio;Coulthard, Tom J.;Baynes, Edwin R. C.
• 通讯作者: Baynes, Edwin R. C.

Historic Spatial Patterns of Storm-Driven Compound Events in UK Estuaries

• DOI: 10.1007/s12237-022-01115-4
• 发表时间: 2022-08-31
• 期刊: ESTUARIES AND COASTS
• 影响因子: 2.7
• 作者: Lyddon, C.;Robins, P.;Coulthard, T.
• 通讯作者: Coulthard, T.

Improving estuary models by reducing uncertainties associated with river flows

• DOI: 10.1016/j.ecss.2018.02.015
• 发表时间: 2018-07
• 期刊: Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science
• 作者: P. Robins;M. Lewis;J. Freer;D. Cooper;C. Skinner;T. Coulthard