Combination Hazard of Extreme rainfall, storm Surge & high Tide on estuarine infrastructure (CHEST)

极端降雨、风暴潮的组合危害

• 批准号: NE/R009007/1
• 负责人: Thomas Coulthard
• 金额: $ 13.45万
• 依托单位: University of Hull
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2017 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FR009007%2F1
• 关键词: Combination; Hazard; Extreme; rainfall; storm

Background and challenges: UK estuaries are at risk from combination flooding. Sea-level rise and predicted changes to UK storm patterns (affecting both surge and river flows) will alter the joint probability of multiple hazard events, making previous understanding of risk, and mitigation measures, potentially obsolete. Existing probabilistic methods for assessing combination hazard (e.g. FD2308) provide only water level hazards, with limited detail on where and when issues may occur, and vitally cannot readily accommodate revised estimates of event distributions due to sea-level rise and climate change. Combination hazards, therefore, present a clear risk to project partner's infrastructure in estuaries (e.g. Flood defences, railways, roads, water treatment works, nuclear power stations), both under present conditions - and more with greater uncertainty in the future. The ability to better forecast the specific locations and timings of such combination hazards will enable effective planning and timely warnings to industry operators, partners and the public. All of our project partners have considerable investments in areas prone to estuarine flooding including flood defences (EA), rail networks (Network Rail), water supplies (Welsh Water) and nuclear power stations (EDF Energy). The scale of national exposure to combination hazard is phenomenal. Taking the Humber alone, the projected economic costs of the 2015 surge tide occurring with 0.3m of sea level rise would be £12.5bn in direct flood damage and £10.8bn in consequential losses. Quite simply, our project partners cannot ignore how combination hazard may increase with climate change. Aims & Objectives: CHEST will assess if the management of combined river-surge-wave-tide flooding in UK estuaries (and surrounding low-lying areas) needs to be amended, especially in the light of sea-level rise and changing climates. This leads to three objectives:1. Establish if the interaction between the combination hazards of rivers, surge, waves and tides is important to resolve for estuarine flood risk.2. Determine which of these factors and in what combination pose the greatest risk. i.e. What is the sensitivity to the different hazards and does it differ in different locations (a) within an estuary (b) between different estuaries?3. With sea-level rise and climate change - ascertain whether the relative importance of the combination hazards change or shift. i.e. with SLR do surges become more dominant?To achieve these objectives, CHEST will use novel, fast numerical models (developed in previous NERC and EA funded projects) to simulate the combination hazard for two contrasting pilot studies (Humber and Dyfi estuaries) where the primary project partners have particular concerns. In a second phase the CHEST modelling framework will be documented, packaged and where necessary tailored to a wider group of additional project partners allowing the application to estuaries around the UK. Deliverables will be predictions in pilot basins of 'worst case' scenarios, system sensitivity to different combination hazards and for the impacts of climate change (Milestones 1, 3 & 4). As requested by PP's these will be in the form of digital maps/data of flood inundation areas, max depth, max velocities, water surface (AOD), flood duration, and a matrix/look up table for combination hazard sensitivity. For the model roll out phase, deliverables will be the software (source and exe) along with documentation and tutorials (Milestone 5). This may also involve tutorials/webinars - as requested by PP's at meetings C and D. Project duration is 10 months involving researchers from the University of Hull and Bangor University. Cost is £104 700 (80%) including 10 months PDRA (Hull); CoI and PI costs and travel for meetings. Lewis' contribution is in kind (20% for 10 months), as a Ser Cymru NRN-LCEE Research Fellow on the QUOTIENT project.

背景和挑战：英国河口面临洪水泛滥的风险。海平面上升和英国风暴模式的预测变化（影响浪涌和河流流量）将改变多个灾害事件的联合概率，使以前对风险的理解和缓解措施可能过时。现有的用于评估组合危害的概率方法（例如FD 2308）仅提供水位危害，关于问题可能发生的地点和时间的细节有限，并且很难适应由于海平面上升和气候变化而对事件分布的修订估计。因此，组合灾害对项目合作伙伴在河口的基础设施（如防洪、铁路、公路、水处理工程、核电站）构成了明显的风险，无论是在当前条件下，还是在未来更大的不确定性下。更好地预测这种组合危害的具体位置和时间的能力将使有效的规划和及时向行业运营商，合作伙伴和公众发出警告。我们所有的项目合作伙伴都在容易发生河口洪水的地区进行了大量投资，包括防洪（EA），铁路网络（Network Rail），供水（Welsh Water）和核电站（EDF Energy）。各国遭受综合危害的程度是惊人的。仅以亨伯为例，预计2015年发生的涌潮导致海平面上升0. 3米的经济成本将是125亿英镑的直接洪水损失和108亿英镑的间接损失。很简单，我们的项目合作伙伴不能忽视组合危害如何随着气候变化而增加。宗旨和目标：CHEST将评估英国河口（及周围低洼地区）的河流涌浪潮汐洪水管理是否需要修改，特别是考虑到海平面上升和气候变化。这导致三个目标：1。确定河流、涌浪、波浪和潮汐的组合灾害之间的相互作用对于解决河口洪水风险是否重要。确定这些因素中的哪些以及哪些组合构成了最大的风险。即，对不同危害的敏感度是多少？不同河口之间的不同位置（a）河口（B）的敏感度是否不同？3.随着海平面上升和气候变化-确定组合危害的相对重要性是否发生变化或转移。也就是说，单反相机的浪涌会变得更占主导地位吗？为了实现这些目标，CHEST将使用新的、快速的数值模型（在先前NERC和EA资助的项目中开发）来模拟两个对比试点研究（亨伯和Dyfi河口）的组合危害，其中主要项目合作伙伴有特别的关注。在第二阶段，CHEST模型框架将被记录，打包，并在必要时针对更广泛的其他项目合作伙伴，允许应用到英国各地的河口。可预测性将是在试点流域中对“最坏情况”情景、系统对不同组合危害的敏感性以及对气候变化影响的预测（千年发展目标1、3和4）。根据PP的要求，这些将以洪水淹没区、最大深度、最大流速、水面（AOD）、洪水持续时间的数字地图/数据以及组合灾害敏感性矩阵/查找表的形式提供。对于模型推出阶段，交付件将是软件（源代码和exe）沿着文档和教程（里程碑5）。这也可能涉及辅导/网络研讨会--如PP在会议C和D上所要求的。项目持续时间为10个月，涉及船体大学和班戈尔大学的研究人员。费用为104 700英镑（80%），包括10个月的PDRA（船体）; CoI和PI费用以及会议差旅费。刘易斯的贡献是实物（20%，10个月），作为一个爵士Cymru NRN-LCEE研究员的报价项目。

项目成果

Using historic records of compound flood events to identify site-specific thresholds for flooding in UK estuaries

利用复合洪水事件的历史记录来确定英国河口特定地点的洪水阈值

• DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12938
• 发表时间: 2022
• 作者: Robins P

Development and validation of flood inundation models for estuaries

河口洪水淹没模型的开发和验证

• DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu23-5858
• 发表时间: 2023
• 作者: Vasilopoulos G

Knickpoints in Martian channels indicate past ocean levels

• DOI: 10.1038/s41598-019-51574-2
• 发表时间: 2019-10-22
• 期刊: SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
• 影响因子: 4.6
• 作者: Duran, Sergio;Coulthard, Tom J.;Baynes, Edwin R. C.
• 通讯作者: Baynes, Edwin R. C.

Historic Spatial Patterns of Storm-Driven Compound Events in UK Estuaries

• DOI: 10.1007/s12237-022-01115-4
• 发表时间: 2022-08-31
• 期刊: ESTUARIES AND COASTS
• 影响因子: 2.7
• 作者: Lyddon, C.;Robins, P.;Coulthard, T.
• 通讯作者: Coulthard, T.

Improving estuary models by reducing uncertainties associated with river flows

• DOI: 10.1016/j.ecss.2018.02.015
• 发表时间: 2018-07
• 期刊: Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science
• 作者: P. Robins;M. Lewis;J. Freer;D. Cooper;C. Skinner;T. Coulthard