Keeping the Midlands Engine running: a blueprint for next generation weather and climate services for transport

可靠和有弹性的运输系统对于维持国家生产力和竞争力至关重要。它们通过机场等国际门户，使货物在整个英国地区和全球范围内日益复杂和时间敏感的供应链中流动。因此，交通运输是工业战略“升级基础设施”支柱的一个关键特征。然而，影响交通可靠性的一个关键因素是恶劣天气的影响，这在《战略》中没有得到解决。恶劣天气会对关键资产造成破坏，并对企业和旅行公众造成广泛的破坏和经济和社会后果。重要的是，运输系统的复杂性及其许多不同的组成部分、相互依赖性和关键位置，为基础设施管理者和气象服务提供商提供了一个独特的挑战环境，他们的任务是减少天气的破坏性影响。该项目旨在为运输部门制定下一代天气服务的蓝图，可用于在极端事件期间做出有针对性的前瞻性决策，以保持系统正常运行。它将利用英国气象局最近升级的高性能计算（HPC）能力，基于对这些资产对天气的反应的深刻理解，生成特定资产的预测。此外，它寻求促进动态资产关键性（DAC）的概念，根据在给定事件中预测的失败风险以及该失败对更广泛系统的潜在后果对资产进行优先排序。这将在米德兰兹引擎的案例研究区域进行开发，米德兰兹引擎是一个价值2300亿英镑的经济体，是工业战略的一部分。它是先进制造业的全国领导者，这是一个依赖于弹性供应链的行业。该项目包括以下工作包：工作包1：创建创新生态系统，提高与天气有关的运输韧性。将整理Midlands引擎的天气与资产故障、资产相互依赖性和网络临界性之间的定量关系的独特、全面的概要。这将以协作在线资源的形式出现，来自基础设施管理者和运输运营商的专家指导将补充现有的学术文献和对优先研究差距的定制分析。这些涉众社区资源被设计为在项目持续时间之外存在和发展，创造影响的遗产。工作包2：制定和展示一种有针对性的方法，优先考虑极端天气事件期间的运输弹性响应。在这里，来自工作包1的资产漏洞信息将通知一套新的定制的以资产为中心的天气预报和风险预警，利用气象局尖端的高性能计算能力。这些将被创建为一些案例研究集中在米德兰兹发动机运输网络的关键位置。将在模拟试验环境中，与运输运营商和基础设施管理人员一起评估DAC方法的输出结果，以评估该方法对事件管理的影响。工作包三：制订新一代运输气象服务的蓝图。根据工作包1和工作包2的研究结果和建议，以及运输部门的预期发展及其对未来提供以运输为重点的天气服务的影响的路线图研讨会，将编写一份白皮书。David Jaroszweski博士是一位国际公认的、有影响力的天气和气候相关交通弹性领域的早期职业研究员。他在工业界和学术界的界面上表现出强大的智力领导能力，得到了国际最高水平的认可。

Reliable and resilient transport systems are crucial for sustaining national productivity and competiveness. They enable the movement of goods in increasingly complex and time-sensitive supply chains throughout the regions of the UK and globally via international gateways such as airports. As such, transport is a key feature of the Industrial Strategy's 'Upgrading Infrastructure' pillar. However, a crucial determinant of the reliability of transport which is not addressed in the Strategy is the impact of severe weather, which can cause damage to critical assets and result in widespread disruption and economic and social consequences for businesses and the travelling public. Importantly, the complex nature of the transport system with its many different components, interdependencies and critical locations poses a uniquely challenging environment for the infrastructure mangers and meteorological service providers who are tasked with reducing the disruptive impact of weather. This project aims to formulate a blueprint for the next generation of weather services for the transport sector, which can be used to make targeted proactive decisions during extreme events to keep the system functioning. It will make use of the Met Office's recently upgraded High Performance Computing (HPC) capabilities to produce asset-specific forecasts, based on a deep understanding of how these assets react to weather. Moreover, it seeks to promote the concept of Dynamic Asset Criticality (DAC), to prioritise assets according to their forecasted risk of failure in a given event and the potential consequences of that failure on the wider system. This will be developed in the case study region of the Midlands Engine, a £230 billion economy that forms part of the Industrial Strategy. It is the national leader in advanced manufacturing, a sector which relies on resilient supply chains. The project has the following work packages: Work package 1: Creation of an Innovation Ecosystem for weather-related transport resilience. Unique, comprehensive compendia of the quantitative relationships between weather and asset failure, asset interdependencies and network criticality for the Midlands Engine will be collated. This will be in the form of collaborative online resources, where expert guidance from infrastructure managers and transport operators will supplement existing academic literature and bespoke analysis of priority research gaps. These stakeholder community resources are designed to exist and evolve beyond the duration of the project, creating a legacy of impact. Work package 2: Developing and demonstrating a targeted approach for prioritising transport resilience responses during extreme weather events. Here the asset vulnerability information from work package 1 will inform a new suite of bespoke asset-focused weather forecasts and risk warnings utilising the Met Office's cutting-edge HPC capabilities. These will be created for a number of case studies centred on critical locations in the Midlands Engine transport network. The output of the DAC approach will be evaluated for severe weather events in a simulated trial environment with operational staff from transport operators and infrastructure managers to assess the implications of the approach for event management. Work package 3: Formulating the blueprint for next generation weather services for transport. A White Paper will be created based on the findings and recommendations emanating from work packages 1 and 2, as well as a roadmapping workshop on anticipated developments in the transport sector and their implications for the future provision of transport-focussed weather services. Dr David Jaroszweski is an internationally recognised, influential early career researcher in weather and climate-related transport resilience. He has demonstrated strong intellectual leadership at the interface of industry and academia which has been recognised at the highest international level.