Keeping the Midlands Engine running: a blueprint for next generation weather and climate services for transport

可靠和有弹性的运输系统对于维持国家生产力和竞争力至关重要。它们使货物能够在日益复杂和对时间敏感的供应链中通过机场等国际门户在英国各地区和全球范围内流动。因此，交通运输是“工业战略”“提升基础设施”支柱的一个主要特点。然而，《战略》没有涉及的运输可靠性的一个关键决定因素是恶劣天气的影响，恶劣天气可能对重要资产造成损害，并对企业和出行公众造成广泛的破坏以及经济和社会后果。重要的是，运输系统的复杂性质及其许多不同的组成部分、相互依存关系和关键位置给基础设施管理人员和气象服务提供者带来了独特的挑战环境，他们的任务是减少天气的破坏性影响。该项目旨在为运输部门制定下一代气象服务的蓝图，可用于在极端事件期间做出有针对性的主动决策，以保持系统的运行。它将利用气象局最近升级的高性能计算(HPC)能力，基于对这些资产如何对天气做出反应的深入了解，生成针对这些资产的预测。此外，它寻求推广动态资产关键程度(DAC)的概念，根据资产在特定事件中预测的故障风险以及该故障对更广泛系统的潜在后果来确定资产的优先顺序。这将在中部引擎的案例研究区域进行开发，该引擎是2300亿GB的经济体，构成了工业战略的一部分。它是先进制造业的全国领先者，先进制造业依赖于弹性供应链。该项目有以下工作包：工作包1：创建与天气有关的运输复原力的创新生态系统。将对米德兰引擎的天气和资产故障、资产相互依存性和网络关键程度之间的量化关系的独特、全面的概要进行整理。这将采取合作在线资源的形式，基础设施管理人员和运输运营商提供的专家指导将补充现有的学术文献，并针对优先研究差距进行分析。这些利益相关者社区资源被设计为在项目持续时间之后存在和发展，从而产生影响的遗产。工作包2：制定和展示一种有针对性的方法，确定极端天气事件期间交通复原力反应的优先次序。在这里，Work Package 1中的资产脆弱性信息将利用英国气象局的尖端HPC功能，为一套新的以资产为重点的定制天气预报和风险警告提供信息。将为以中部地区发动机运输网络的关键地点为中心的若干案例研究创建这些文件。将在模拟试验环境中评估发援会办法的产出，由运输运营商和基础设施管理人员的业务人员评估该办法对事件管理的影响。工作方案3：制定交通运输新一代气象服务蓝图。将根据工作方案1和2产生的结果和建议，以及关于运输部门预期发展及其对未来提供以运输为重点的天气服务的影响的路线图研讨会，编写一份白皮书。David Jaroszweski博士是国际公认的、在天气和气候相关的交通弹性方面具有影响力的早期职业研究人员。他在产业界和学术界之间表现出了强大的智力领导力，这一点在国际上得到了最高级别的认可。

Reliable and resilient transport systems are crucial for sustaining national productivity and competiveness. They enable the movement of goods in increasingly complex and time-sensitive supply chains throughout the regions of the UK and globally via international gateways such as airports. As such, transport is a key feature of the Industrial Strategy's 'Upgrading Infrastructure' pillar. However, a crucial determinant of the reliability of transport which is not addressed in the Strategy is the impact of severe weather, which can cause damage to critical assets and result in widespread disruption and economic and social consequences for businesses and the travelling public. Importantly, the complex nature of the transport system with its many different components, interdependencies and critical locations poses a uniquely challenging environment for the infrastructure mangers and meteorological service providers who are tasked with reducing the disruptive impact of weather. This project aims to formulate a blueprint for the next generation of weather services for the transport sector, which can be used to make targeted proactive decisions during extreme events to keep the system functioning. It will make use of the Met Office's recently upgraded High Performance Computing (HPC) capabilities to produce asset-specific forecasts, based on a deep understanding of how these assets react to weather. Moreover, it seeks to promote the concept of Dynamic Asset Criticality (DAC), to prioritise assets according to their forecasted risk of failure in a given event and the potential consequences of that failure on the wider system. This will be developed in the case study region of the Midlands Engine, a £230 billion economy that forms part of the Industrial Strategy. It is the national leader in advanced manufacturing, a sector which relies on resilient supply chains. The project has the following work packages: Work package 1: Creation of an Innovation Ecosystem for weather-related transport resilience. Unique, comprehensive compendia of the quantitative relationships between weather and asset failure, asset interdependencies and network criticality for the Midlands Engine will be collated. This will be in the form of collaborative online resources, where expert guidance from infrastructure managers and transport operators will supplement existing academic literature and bespoke analysis of priority research gaps. These stakeholder community resources are designed to exist and evolve beyond the duration of the project, creating a legacy of impact. Work package 2: Developing and demonstrating a targeted approach for prioritising transport resilience responses during extreme weather events. Here the asset vulnerability information from work package 1 will inform a new suite of bespoke asset-focused weather forecasts and risk warnings utilising the Met Office's cutting-edge HPC capabilities. These will be created for a number of case studies centred on critical locations in the Midlands Engine transport network. The output of the DAC approach will be evaluated for severe weather events in a simulated trial environment with operational staff from transport operators and infrastructure managers to assess the implications of the approach for event management. Work package 3: Formulating the blueprint for next generation weather services for transport. A White Paper will be created based on the findings and recommendations emanating from work packages 1 and 2, as well as a roadmapping workshop on anticipated developments in the transport sector and their implications for the future provision of transport-focussed weather services. Dr David Jaroszweski is an internationally recognised, influential early career researcher in weather and climate-related transport resilience. He has demonstrated strong intellectual leadership at the interface of industry and academia which has been recognised at the highest international level.