VIET NAM: Slow Onset Hazard Interactions with Enhanced Drought and Flood Extremes in an At-Risk Mega-Delta

越南：在危险的巨型三角洲地区，缓慢发生的灾害与干旱和洪水极端事件的相互作用

• 批准号: NE/S002847/1
• 负责人: Stephen Darby
• 金额: $ 50.79万
• 依托单位: University of Southampton
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2019 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FS002847%2F1
• 关键词: VIET; NAM; Slow; Onset; Hazard

Layperson Summary (4000 characters max.)The world's major river deltas are hotspots of agricultural production that support rural livelihoods and feed much of the global population, but as 'climate change hot spots' deltas are facing a major sustainability crisis. Specifically, there are concerns that many deltas may in the coming decades be 'drowned' by rising sea levels as the oceans warm (up to 20% of land is projected to be lost in the major deltas of south and southeast Asia alone). The process of delta 'drowning' is a slow onset hazard where relative sea-level rise progressively exacerbates fluvial and coastal flood risk while simultaneously enhancing saline intrusion. However, progressive environmental change is punctuated by the occurrence of extreme weather events such as droughts or extreme rainfall and climate models project that these will occur more frequently. The co-occurrence of slow onset hazards with extreme events creates a 'perfect storm' that makes agriculture ever more challenging, but we have almost no insight into how slow onset changes interact with extreme events. A key question is the extent (much like a boxer 'softening up' her opponent with repeated body blows before landing the knockout punch) to which, in systems facing progressive reductions in resilience as a result of ongoing change, the additional burdens caused by occasional but damaging climatic extremes may cause a 'tipping point' to be crossed which makes it difficult for agricultural production to recover after severe episodes of drought or flooding. This is a critical issue because if we cannot correctly attribute the cause of major change we run the risk that 'solutions' will also be applied incorrectly. In this project we will develop a new model to examine how agricultural production and livelihoods are affected by combinations of progressive environmental change punctuated by extreme weather events. In particular we will focus on episodes of drought and flooding. Flooding is the most dangerous and costly of natural hazards, accounting for over 500,000 fatalities and economic losses of more than $1 trillion since 1980. Their low lying nature, alongside their location at the interface between coastal and fluvial environments means that deltas are disproportionately exposed to these risks. However, in the developing world, where agricultural production forms the mainstay of national economies and is central to livelihoods, drought can be a key driver of water and food (in)security, but we know significantly less about how droughts develop, persist and recover. We will further our understanding of the vulnerability of delta systems to extreme events by exploring how crop production and livelihoods are affected by the interplay between episodes of drought and flooding and ongoing environmental stress linked to upstream catchment management and climate change. Our project is focused on the world's third largest delta, the Mekong. The Mekong delta is SE Asia's rice basket and home to almost 20 million people, but it is exposed to severe environmental risks as a result of climate change and rapid economic development. We will collaborate with our Vietnamese partners, including in key government agencies, to bring UK expertise in (i) the modelling of droughts and floods; (ii) agricultural livelihoods; (iii) participatory stakeholder engagement processes and (iv) social-ecological systems dynamics to bear on this challenge. We will define policy relevant scenarios of future change and quantify the links between drought and flooding and agricultural livelihoods, delivering an integrated assessment of the factors driving changes to livelihoods and explore the effects that adaptations could make to help make the Mekong delta more resilient to climatic extremes. This will be done within a globally significant, iconic, delta, providing a template for similar analyses in other vulnerable deltas of the Global South.

外行摘要（最多4000个字符）世界主要河流三角洲是农业生产热点，支持农村生计并养活全球大部分人口，但作为“气候变化热点”，三角洲正面临着重大的可持续发展危机。具体而言，人们担心，随着海洋变暖，许多三角洲可能在未来几十年内被海平面上升所“淹没”（仅在南亚和东南亚的主要三角洲，预计就将失去多达20%的土地）。三角洲“溺水”的过程是一个缓慢发生的危险，相对海平面上升逐步加剧河流和沿海洪水的风险，同时提高盐水入侵。然而，环境的逐步变化不时出现干旱或极端降雨等极端天气事件，气候模型预测这些事件将更频繁地发生。缓慢发生的灾害与极端事件的共同发生创造了一个“完美风暴”，使农业更具挑战性，但我们几乎没有洞察到缓慢发生的变化如何与极端事件相互作用。一个关键问题是（很像一个拳击手在击倒对手之前用反复的身体打击来“软化”对手），在由于持续的变化而面临弹性逐渐降低的系统中，偶尔但具有破坏性的极端气候造成的额外负担可能会导致越过一个“临界点”，使农业生产在严重的气候变化之后难以恢复。干旱或洪水。这是一个关键问题，因为如果我们不能正确地归因于重大变化的原因，我们就有可能错误地应用“解决方案”。在这个项目中，我们将开发一个新的模型来研究农业生产和生计如何受到极端天气事件所打断的渐进环境变化的影响。特别是，我们将重点关注干旱和洪水。洪水是最危险和代价最高的自然灾害，自1980年以来造成50多万人死亡，经济损失超过1万亿美元。它们地势低洼，又位于沿海和河流环境的交界处，这意味着三角洲不成比例地面临这些风险。然而，在发展中国家，农业生产是国民经济的支柱，是生计的核心，干旱可能是水和粮食安全的关键驱动因素，但我们对干旱如何发展、持续和恢复的了解要少得多。我们将进一步了解三角洲系统对极端事件的脆弱性，探索作物生产和生计如何受到干旱和洪水事件以及与上游集水管理和气候变化相关的持续环境压力之间相互作用的影响。我们的项目集中在世界第三大三角洲湄公河。湄公河三角洲是东南亚的稻米篮子，拥有近2000万人口，但由于气候变化和快速的经济发展，它面临着严重的环境风险。我们将与越南的合作伙伴，包括主要政府机构合作，将英国在以下方面的专业知识用于应对这一挑战：（i）干旱和洪水建模;（ii）农业生计;（iii）参与性利益相关者参与进程;（iv）社会生态系统动态。我们将确定未来变化的政策相关情景，量化干旱和洪水与农业生计之间的联系，对推动生计变化的因素进行综合评估，并探索适应措施可能产生的影响，以帮助湄公河三角洲更好地抵御极端气候。这将在一个具有全球意义的标志性三角洲内进行，为全球南方其他脆弱三角洲的类似分析提供模板。

项目成果

Streamflow Prediction in Highly Regulated, Transboundary Watersheds Using Multi-Basin Modeling and Remote Sensing Imagery.

• DOI: 10.1029/2021wr031191
• 发表时间: 2022-03
• 期刊: WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH
• 影响因子: 5.4
• 作者: Du, Tien L. T.;Lee, Hyongki;Bui, Duong D.;Graham, L. Phil;Darby, Stephen D.;Pechlivanidis, Ilias G.;Leyland, Julian;Biswas, Nishan K.;Choi, Gyewoon;Batelaan, Okke;Bui, Thao T. P.;Do, Son K.;Tran, Tinh, V;Hoa Thi Nguyen;Hwang, Euiho
• 通讯作者: Hwang, Euiho

The Pace of Human-Induced Change in Large Rivers: Stresses, Resilience, and Vulnerability to Extreme Events.

人类引起的大河流变化的速度：极端事件的压力、恢复力和脆弱性。

• DOI: 10.1016/j.oneear.2020.05.021
• 发表时间: 2020
• 期刊: One earth (Cambridge, Mass.)
• 作者: Best J

Dynamics of salt intrusion in the Mekong Delta: results of field observations and integrated coastal-inland modelling

湄公河三角洲盐分入侵动态：实地观测结果和沿海内陆综合模型

• DOI: 10.5194/esurf-9-953-2021
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: Earth Surface Dynamics
• 影响因子: 3.4
• 作者: Eslami S

Willingness to Pay for Improved Urban Domestic Water Supply System: The Case of Hanoi, Vietnam

• DOI: 10.3390/w14142161
• 发表时间: 2022-07
• 期刊: Water
• 影响因子: 3.4
• 作者: Nuong Thi Bui;S. Darby;Trang Quynh Vu;Jean Margaret R. Mercado;T. T. P. Bui-T.;Komali Kantamaneni;T. T. Nguyen-T.;T. Truong;Hue Thi Hoang;D. Bui

Harmonization of Landsat and Sentinel 2 for Crop Monitoring in Drought Prone Areas: Case Studies of Ninh Thuan (Vietnam) and Bekaa (Lebanon)

• DOI: 10.3390/rs12020281
• 发表时间: 2020-01-01
• 期刊: REMOTE SENSING
• 影响因子: 5
• 作者: Nguyen, Minh D.;Baez-Villanueva, Oscar M.;Ribbe, Lars
• 通讯作者: Ribbe, Lars