Volcanic plume understanding and forecasting: Integrating remote-sensing, in-situ observations and models (V-PLUS)

火山羽流理解和预测：整合遥感、现场观测和模型 (V-PLUS)

• 批准号: NE/S004106/1
• 负责人: Mike Burton
• 金额: $ 50.49万
• 依托单位: University of Manchester
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2019 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FS004106%2F1
• 关键词: Volcanic; plume; understanding; forecasting; Integrating

The 2010 Eyjafjallajökull and 2011 Grimsvötn eruptions in Iceland were stark reminders that society is increasingly vulnerable to volcanic hazards. Since 2012, volcanic eruptions are listed in the UK National Risk Register for Civil Emergencies, recognising the high potential for societal disruption and economic loss. Volcano observatories and regulatory bodies, including the nine Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres (VAACs), use a variety of tools and data to mitigate the impacts of eruptions, and ensure aviation safety. Some of the most important tools are atmospheric models that simulate the atmospheric transport and removal of volcanic plume constituents and form the backbone of the regulatory response. The accuracy of these model predictions relies on:i) accurate input data, mainly derived from ground-based measurements and satellites; ii) the accuracy of the model representation of volcanic plume transport and plume processes. The overarching aims of V-PLUS are to transform our understanding of volcanic plumes and deliver methods and tools that enhance monitoring and forecasting capabilities in the UK and beyond. Our project partners and subcontractor include the Icelandic Met Office, the UK Met Office and Etna volcano observatory, which ensures that our new research breakthroughs will be used operationally by VAACs and volcano observatories. This will enhance our capabilities to mitigate the economic and societal hazards posed by volcanic eruptions.To achieve our aims, V-PLUS will exploit data from a recently launched satellite sensor called TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI). The exceptional spectral and spatial resolution of TROPOMI, 12 times better than the previous generation of instruments, is for the first time comparable to ground-based measurements, and will be a game-changer in volcanology, providing an unprecedented opportunity to characterise and track volcanic plumes. V-PLUS will combine this new data with ground-based and other satellite data, as well as atmospheric modelling to study volcanic plumes with unprecedented fidelity. To improve our ability to measure volcanic ash from satellite imagery we will conduct experiments on volcanoes, directly sampling volcanic ash during volcanic explosions using unmanned aerial vehicles, and test numerical models of volcanic activity.Aside from volcanic ash hazards, toxic volcanic sulphur species can degrade air quality, negatively affect human health, and potentially increase the cost of ownership of aircraft engines due to an increase in maintenance cycles. However, there is at present extremely limited knowledge of exposure thresholds and durations at which negative human health effects occur and the functioning of aircraft engines is compromised. While none of the VAACs are currently required to forecast the dispersion of volcanic sulphur, there is increasing recognition of the potential hazards from volcanic gases and their chemical conversion products. Thus, the requirement for VAACs could change in future. The chemical evolution of gases and aerosol particles controls the health and climatic impact of eruptions, and we will study this chemical evolution through experiments in accessible volcanic gas plumes. In summary, the new atmospheric models and tools created by the V-PLUS will be rigorously tested using case study eruptions and translated into tools for direct use by VAACs and volcano observatories. Therefore, the V-PLUS project will have societal and economic benefits primarily through creating enhanced national and international capability to predict the dispersion of volcanic ash and gas plumes including their impacts on air quality, human health, climate and aviation.

2010年冰岛埃亚菲亚德拉火山喷发和2011年格里姆斯夫顿火山喷发清楚地提醒人们，社会越来越容易受到火山灾害的影响。自2012年以来，火山喷发被列入英国民用紧急情况国家风险登记册，承认其社会混乱和经济损失的高可能性。火山观测站和监管机构，包括九个火山灰咨询中心，使用各种工具和数据来减轻喷发的影响，确保航空安全。其中一些最重要的工具是大气模型，它模拟了火山羽流成分在大气中的传输和清除，构成了监管反应的支柱。这些模型预测的准确性取决于：1)准确的输入数据，主要来自地面测量和卫星；2)火山羽流输送和羽流过程的模型表示的准确性。V-plus的首要目标是改变我们对火山羽流的理解，并提供方法和工具，以增强英国和其他国家的监测和预报能力。我们的项目合作伙伴和分包商包括冰岛气象局、英国气象局和埃特纳火山观测站，这确保我们的新研究突破将被VAAC和火山观测站用于业务。这将增强我们减轻火山喷发造成的经济和社会危害的能力。为了实现我们的目标，V-plus将利用最近发射的名为对流层监测仪(Tropomi)的卫星传感器的数据。Tropomi的非凡光谱和空间分辨率比上一代仪器高12倍，首次可与地面测量相媲美，将改变火山学的游戏规则，为描述和跟踪火山羽流提供了前所未有的机会。V-plus将把这一新数据与地面和其他卫星数据以及大气模型结合起来，以前所未有的保真度研究火山羽流。为了提高我们从卫星图像测量火山灰的能力，我们将对火山进行实验，使用无人机直接对火山爆发期间的火山灰进行采样，并测试火山活动的数值模型。除了火山灰危害外，有毒的火山硫磺还会降低空气质量，对人体健康造成负面影响，并可能由于维护周期的增加而增加飞机发动机的拥有成本。然而，目前对暴露阈值和持续时间的了解极其有限，在这些暴露阈值和持续时间内，会对人类健康产生负面影响，飞机发动机的功能也会受到影响。虽然目前不需要任何VAAC来预测火山硫的扩散，但人们越来越多地认识到火山气体及其化学转化产物的潜在危险。因此，未来对VAAC的要求可能会发生变化。气体和气溶胶粒子的化学演化控制着喷发对健康和气候的影响，我们将通过可获得的火山气体羽流实验来研究这种化学演化。总而言之，V-plus创建的新大气模型和工具将使用案例研究喷发进行严格测试，并转化为VAAC和火山天文台直接使用的工具。因此，V-plus项目将主要通过建立增强的国家和国际能力来预测火山灰和气体羽流的扩散，包括它们对空气质量、人类健康、气候和航空的影响，从而产生社会和经济效益。

项目成果

Pre- and syn-eruptive conditions of a basaltic Plinian eruption at Masaya Volcano, Nicaragua: The Masaya Triple Layer (2.1 ka)

• DOI: 10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2019.106761
• 发表时间: 2020-02-15
• 期刊: JOURNAL OF VOLCANOLOGY AND GEOTHERMAL RESEARCH
• 影响因子: 2.9
• 作者: Bamber, Emily C.;Arzilli, Fabio;Burton, Mike R.
• 通讯作者: Burton, Mike R.

Highly Explosive Basaltic Eruptions: Magma Fragmentation Induced by Rapid Crystallisation

高爆炸性玄武岩喷发：快速结晶引起的岩浆破碎

• DOI: 10.46427/gold2020.85
• 发表时间: 2020
• 作者: Arzilli F

Dendritic crystallization in hydrous basaltic magmas controls magma mobility within the Earth's crust.

• DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-30890-8
• 发表时间: 2022-06-10
• 期刊: Nature communications
• 影响因子: 16.6

Understanding basaltic Plinian activity at Masaya caldera, Nicaragua

了解尼加拉瓜马萨亚火山口的玄武岩普林尼式活动

• DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-9513
• 发表时间: 2020
• 作者: Bamber E

Downward-propagating eruption following vent unloading implies no direct magmatic trigger for the 2018 lateral collapse of Anak Krakatau

• DOI: 10.1016/j.epsl.2021.117332
• 发表时间: 2021-12
• 期刊: Earth and Planetary Science Letters
• 影响因子: 5.3
• 作者: K. Cutler;S. Watt;M. Cassidy;A. Madden-nadeau;S. Engwell;M. Abdurrachman;Muhammad Edo Marshal Nurshal;D. Tappin;S. Carey;A. Novellino;C. Hayer;J. Hunt;S. Day;S. Grilli;I. A. Kurniawan;N. Kartadinata