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NATIONAL-SCALE IMPACT-BASED FORECASTING OF FLOOD RISK IN UGANDA (NIMFRU)

乌干达全国范围基于影响的洪水风险预测 (NIMFRU)

基本信息

批准号：
NE/S00596X/1
负责人：
Rosalind Cornforth
金额：
$ 40万
依托单位：
University of Reading
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2018
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2018 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FS00596X%2F1
关键词：
NATIONAL SCALE IMPACT BASED FORECASTING

项目摘要

Despite significant investments in early warning systems, only limited progress has been made towards making flood prone communities safe (UN SDG Report, 2017). Forecast-based Financing is an initiative to enable humanitarian funds for early action to be released before a disaster on the basis of a forecast. The initial Forecast-based Financing pilot (FbF) project in North Eastern Uganda has highlighted the complexity in establishing vulnerability and response thresholds (Coughlan de Perez et al. 2016) to guide interventions. Scaling-up FbF across a nation is therefore a grand challenge due to the complexity of environmental, climatic and socio-economic factors affecting flood risk, the multi-sectoral (health, environment, water, transport) impacts and the range of factors affecting response at community level. Understanding the specific vulnerabilities of communities at different seasons, and their exposure to different types of flood threat is key to improving physical and livelihood risk assessment, preparedness, communication and response, The demand from the FbF community for impact-based forecasts at a national scale in Uganda therefore drives the need for a new approach that synthesises evidence from different disciplines including climate science, hydrology, and livelihoods. The NIMFRU project responds to this need, through a new approach that will provide comprehensive flood impact assessments for FbF across all areas of Uganda, complementing the SHEAR-FATHUM project's outputs on forecast skill with basic household economy/socio-economic information, to guide preparedness, protection and response. FATHUM's approach is the basis for NIMFRU's overarching aim, which is to improve the targeting, relevance and communication of flood warning and response in Uganda, through better integration and analysis of information on the sensitivities and vulnerabilities of different population groups to flood events across the agricultural year. Through linking with the FbF initiative, NIMFRU's research outcomes will inform developments for impact-based forecasting beyond Uganda.We will achieve this new synthesis of climate science and livelihoods analysis through our well established consortium of globally recognised leaders in hydrology, climate science and livelihoods research and practice, together with long standing stakeholder networks and existing, strong and equitable relationships with our project partners. With wide ranging and extensive local and regional knowledge of policy processes, our team has the critical capacity to ensure NIMRFU's work is fully embedded within national agencies including NECOC's flood information system, its humanitarian relief database and its emergency response mechanisms. This will ensure the project's long term legacy, its sustainability and its extensibility beyond the pilot districts, across Uganda, and to Sub-Saharan Africa and beyond.

尽管对预警系统进行了大量投资，但在使洪水易发社区安全方面取得的进展有限（联合国可持续发展目标报告，2017年）。基于预测的筹资是一项举措，目的是使人道主义资金能够在灾害发生前根据预测发放，用于早期行动。乌干达东北部的初步基于预测的融资试点项目（FbF）强调了建立脆弱性和响应阈值的复杂性（Coughlan de Perez et al. 2016），以指导干预措施。因此，由于影响洪水风险的环境、气候和社会经济因素的复杂性、多部门（卫生、环境、水、交通）影响以及影响社区一级响应的一系列因素，在全国范围内扩大FbF是一项巨大的挑战。了解社区在不同季节的具体脆弱性，以及他们面临不同类型洪水威胁的情况，是改善物质和生计风险评估、准备、沟通和应对的关键。和生计。NIMFRU项目通过一种新的方法来满足这一需求，该方法将为乌干达所有地区的FbF提供全面的洪水影响评估，以基本的家庭经济/社会经济信息补充SHEAR-FATHUM项目在预测技能方面的产出，以指导备灾、保护和应对。FATHUM的方法是NIMFRU总体目标的基础，即通过更好地整合和分析关于不同人口群体对整个农业年度洪水事件的敏感性和脆弱性的信息，改善乌干达洪水预警和应对的针对性、相关性和沟通。通过与FbF倡议的联系，NIMFRU的研究成果将为乌干达以外地区基于影响的预测的发展提供信息。我们将通过我们在水文学、气候科学和生计研究与实践方面的全球知名领导者组成的联盟，以及长期的利益相关者网络和与我们的项目合作伙伴现有的、牢固的和公平的关系，实现这种新的气候科学和生计分析的综合。我们的团队对当地和区域的政策进程有着广泛而深入的了解，因此具有关键能力，能够确保NIMRFU的工作完全融入国家机构，包括NECOC的洪水信息系统、人道主义救援数据库和应急机制。这将确保该项目的长期遗产、可持续性和可扩展性，使其超出试点地区，遍及乌干达，并扩展到撒哈拉以南非洲及其他地区。