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NATIONAL-SCALE IMPACT-BASED FORECASTING OF FLOOD RISK IN UGANDA (NIMFRU)

乌干达全国范围基于影响的洪水风险预测 (NIMFRU)

基本信息

批准号：
NE/S00596X/1
负责人：
Rosalind Cornforth
金额：
$ 40万
依托单位：
University of Reading
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2018
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2018 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FS00596X%2F1
关键词：
NATIONAL SCALE IMPACT BASED FORECASTING

项目摘要

Despite significant investments in early warning systems, only limited progress has been made towards making flood prone communities safe (UN SDG Report, 2017). Forecast-based Financing is an initiative to enable humanitarian funds for early action to be released before a disaster on the basis of a forecast. The initial Forecast-based Financing pilot (FbF) project in North Eastern Uganda has highlighted the complexity in establishing vulnerability and response thresholds (Coughlan de Perez et al. 2016) to guide interventions. Scaling-up FbF across a nation is therefore a grand challenge due to the complexity of environmental, climatic and socio-economic factors affecting flood risk, the multi-sectoral (health, environment, water, transport) impacts and the range of factors affecting response at community level. Understanding the specific vulnerabilities of communities at different seasons, and their exposure to different types of flood threat is key to improving physical and livelihood risk assessment, preparedness, communication and response, The demand from the FbF community for impact-based forecasts at a national scale in Uganda therefore drives the need for a new approach that synthesises evidence from different disciplines including climate science, hydrology, and livelihoods. The NIMFRU project responds to this need, through a new approach that will provide comprehensive flood impact assessments for FbF across all areas of Uganda, complementing the SHEAR-FATHUM project's outputs on forecast skill with basic household economy/socio-economic information, to guide preparedness, protection and response. FATHUM's approach is the basis for NIMFRU's overarching aim, which is to improve the targeting, relevance and communication of flood warning and response in Uganda, through better integration and analysis of information on the sensitivities and vulnerabilities of different population groups to flood events across the agricultural year. Through linking with the FbF initiative, NIMFRU's research outcomes will inform developments for impact-based forecasting beyond Uganda.We will achieve this new synthesis of climate science and livelihoods analysis through our well established consortium of globally recognised leaders in hydrology, climate science and livelihoods research and practice, together with long standing stakeholder networks and existing, strong and equitable relationships with our project partners. With wide ranging and extensive local and regional knowledge of policy processes, our team has the critical capacity to ensure NIMRFU's work is fully embedded within national agencies including NECOC's flood information system, its humanitarian relief database and its emergency response mechanisms. This will ensure the project's long term legacy, its sustainability and its extensibility beyond the pilot districts, across Uganda, and to Sub-Saharan Africa and beyond.

尽管对预警系统进行了大量投资，但在确保洪水易发社区安全方面仅取得有限进展（联合国可持续发展目标报告，2017）。基于预测的融资是一项倡议，旨在根据预测在灾害发生前释放用于早期行动的人道主义资金。乌干达东北部最初的基于预测的融资试点 (FbF) 项目强调了建立脆弱性和响应阈值以指导干预措施的复杂性（Coughlan de Perez 等，2016）。因此，由于影响洪水风险的环境、气候和社会经济因素的复杂性、多部门（健康、环境、水、交通）影响以及影响社区一级响应的因素的范围，在全国范围内推广 FbF 是一项巨大的挑战。了解社区在不同季节的具体脆弱性以及他们遭受不同类型洪水威胁的风险是改善实体和生计风险评估、准备、沟通和响应的关键。因此，FbF 社区对乌干达全国范围内基于影响的预报的需求推动了对新方法的需求，该方法综合了来自包括气候科学、水文学和生计在内的不同学科的证据。 NIMFRU 项目通过一种新方法满足了这一需求，该方法将为乌干达所有地区的 FbF 提供全面的洪水影响评估，用基本的家庭经济/社会经济信息补充 SHEAR-FATHUM 项目的预测技能成果，以指导备灾、保护和应对。 FATHUM 的方法是 NIMFRU 总体目标的基础，即通过更好地整合和分析不同人口群体对整个农业年度洪水事件的敏感性和脆弱性的信息，提高乌干达洪水预警和响应的针对性、相关性和沟通。通过与 FbF 倡议的联系，NIMFRU 的研究成果将为乌干达以外基于影响的预测的发展提供信息。我们将通过由全球公认的水文学、气候科学和生计研究与实践领导者组成的完善联盟，以及长期的利益相关者网络以及与项目合作伙伴现有的、牢固和公平的关系，实现气候科学和生计分析的新综合。凭借对当地和区域政策流程的广泛了解，我们的团队拥有关键能力，可确保 NIMRFU 的工作完全融入国家机构，包括 NECOC 的洪水信息系统、人道主义救援数据库及其应急响应机制。这将确保该项目的长期遗产、可持续性和可扩展性，超越试点地区、整个乌干达、撒哈拉以南非洲及其他地区。