NATIONAL-SCALE IMPACT-BASED FORECASTING OF FLOOD RISK IN UGANDA (NIMFRU)

尽管在早期预警系统方面进行了大量投资，但在使易受洪水影响的社区安全方面取得的进展有限（联合国可持续发展目标报告，2017年）。基于预测的融资是一项倡议，目的是在灾害发生前根据预测发放用于早期行动的人道主义资金。乌干达东北部最初的基于预测的融资试点（FbF）项目强调了建立脆弱性和响应阈值以指导干预措施的复杂性（Coughlan de Perez et al. 2016）。因此，由于影响洪水风险的环境、气候和社会经济因素、多部门（卫生、环境、水、运输）影响以及影响社区一级应对措施的各种因素的复杂性，在全国范围内扩大FbF是一项重大挑战。了解不同季节社区的具体脆弱性及其面临不同类型洪水威胁的程度是改善物质和生计风险评估、准备、沟通和响应的关键。因此，乌干达FbF社区对全国范围内基于影响的预测的需求推动了对一种新方法的需求，该方法综合了来自不同学科的证据，包括气候科学、水文学和生计。NIMFRU项目响应了这一需求，通过一种新方法，为乌干达所有地区的FbF提供全面的洪水影响评估，用基本的家庭经济/社会经济信息补充SHEAR-FATHUM项目在预测技能方面的产出，以指导备灾、保护和应对。FATHUM的方法是NIMFRU总体目标的基础，该目标是通过更好地整合和分析整个农业年不同人口群体对洪水事件的敏感性和脆弱性的信息，改善乌干达洪水预警和响应的针对性、相关性和沟通。通过与FbF倡议的联系，NIMFRU的研究成果将为乌干达以外基于影响的预报的发展提供信息。我们将通过由全球公认的水文、气候科学和生计研究与实践领域的领导者组成的成熟联盟，以及长期存在的利益相关者网络，以及与项目合作伙伴之间现有的、牢固和公平的关系，实现气候科学和生计分析的新综合。我们的团队拥有广泛的地方和区域政策流程知识，具有确保NIMRFU的工作完全融入国家机构的关键能力，包括NECOC的洪水信息系统、人道主义救济数据库和应急响应机制。这将确保项目的长期遗产、可持续性和可扩展性，使其超越乌干达的试点地区，扩展到撒哈拉以南非洲和其他地区。

Despite significant investments in early warning systems, only limited progress has been made towards making flood prone communities safe (UN SDG Report, 2017). Forecast-based Financing is an initiative to enable humanitarian funds for early action to be released before a disaster on the basis of a forecast. The initial Forecast-based Financing pilot (FbF) project in North Eastern Uganda has highlighted the complexity in establishing vulnerability and response thresholds (Coughlan de Perez et al. 2016) to guide interventions. Scaling-up FbF across a nation is therefore a grand challenge due to the complexity of environmental, climatic and socio-economic factors affecting flood risk, the multi-sectoral (health, environment, water, transport) impacts and the range of factors affecting response at community level. Understanding the specific vulnerabilities of communities at different seasons, and their exposure to different types of flood threat is key to improving physical and livelihood risk assessment, preparedness, communication and response, The demand from the FbF community for impact-based forecasts at a national scale in Uganda therefore drives the need for a new approach that synthesises evidence from different disciplines including climate science, hydrology, and livelihoods. The NIMFRU project responds to this need, through a new approach that will provide comprehensive flood impact assessments for FbF across all areas of Uganda, complementing the SHEAR-FATHUM project's outputs on forecast skill with basic household economy/socio-economic information, to guide preparedness, protection and response. FATHUM's approach is the basis for NIMFRU's overarching aim, which is to improve the targeting, relevance and communication of flood warning and response in Uganda, through better integration and analysis of information on the sensitivities and vulnerabilities of different population groups to flood events across the agricultural year. Through linking with the FbF initiative, NIMFRU's research outcomes will inform developments for impact-based forecasting beyond Uganda.We will achieve this new synthesis of climate science and livelihoods analysis through our well established consortium of globally recognised leaders in hydrology, climate science and livelihoods research and practice, together with long standing stakeholder networks and existing, strong and equitable relationships with our project partners. With wide ranging and extensive local and regional knowledge of policy processes, our team has the critical capacity to ensure NIMRFU's work is fully embedded within national agencies including NECOC's flood information system, its humanitarian relief database and its emergency response mechanisms. This will ensure the project's long term legacy, its sustainability and its extensibility beyond the pilot districts, across Uganda, and to Sub-Saharan Africa and beyond.