West Antarctic Ice Sheet retreat in the context of ENSO variability

ENSO 变化背景下南极西部冰盖退缩

• 批准号: NE/S010475/1
• 负责人: Robert Arthern
• 金额: $ 99.77万
• 依托单位: British Antarctic Survey
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2019 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FS010475%2F1
• 关键词: West; Antarctic; Ice; Sheet; retreat

Satellite observations show rapid changes in the rate of ice loss from West Antarctica, but attribution of their cause is uncertain and requires modelling of the full ice-ocean system. Recent studies highlight the influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on this important contribution to sea level. The hypothesised mechanism is through changes in ice-shelf melting, attributed to wind-forced variation in the depth of the oceanic thermocline that separates cooler surface waters from warmer Circumpolar Deep Water beneath. To improve upon detailed forecasts of West Antarctic ice using steady climate forcing, we propose novel experiments using a new synchronously coupled ice/ocean model that can continuously compute the response of the ice sheet to highly-variable oceanic forcing driven by ENSO. We seek to quantify: (1) the probability that 20th Century retreat of West Antarctic ice was triggered by ENSO; (2) the probability that sequential strong La Niña events could halt the retreat happening now; (3) formal attribution of changes in the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to ENSO or anthropogenic trends in zonal winds; and (4) the impact of ENSO and anthropogenic trends on predicted extremes of 21st Century sea level used for coastal planning decisions.

卫星观测显示，南极洲西部的冰消失率变化很快，但其原因尚不确定，需要对整个冰-海系统进行建模。最近的研究突出了厄尔尼诺南方涛动(ENSO)对这一对海平面的重要贡献的影响。假设的机制是通过冰架融化的变化，归因于大洋温跃层深度的风力变化，海洋温跃层将较冷的表层水与较暖的绕极深层水分开。为了利用稳定的气候强迫改进对南极西部冰的详细预报，我们提出了一种新的实验，它使用了一个新的同步耦合的冰/海洋模式，该模式可以连续计算冰盖对ENSO驱动的高度可变的海洋强迫的响应。我们试图量化：(1)20世纪南极西部冰川退缩是由ENSO引发的概率；(2)相继发生的强烈拉尼娜事件可能阻止现在发生的退缩；(3)正式将西南极冰盖的变化归因于ENSO或纬向风的人为趋势；以及(4)ENSO和人类活动趋势对用于海岸规划决策的21世纪海平面预测极端的影响。

项目成果

Data for "A framework for estimating the anthropogenic part of Antarctica's sea level contribution in a synthetic setting" by Bradley et al.

Bradley 等人的“在合成环境中估计南极洲海平面贡献的人为部分的框架”的数据。

• DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.7900761
• 发表时间: 2023
• 作者: Alexander T Bradley

Asymptotic analysis of subglacial plumes in stratified environments

分层环境中冰下羽流的渐近分析

• DOI: 10.1098/rspa.2021.0846
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences
• 作者: Bradley A

The relative impacts of initialisation and climate forcing in coupled ice sheet-ocean modelling: application to Pope, Smith and Kohler glaciers

冰盖-海洋耦合模型中初始化和气候强迫的相对影响：在波普冰川、史密斯冰川和科勒冰川中的应用

• DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1125
• 发表时间: 2022
• 作者: Goldberg D

The Influence of Pine Island Ice Shelf Calving on Basal Melting

松岛冰架崩解对基底融化的影响

• DOI: 10.1029/2022jc018621
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Oceans
• 作者: Bradley A

The Influence of Pine Island Ice Shelf Calving on Melting

松岛冰架崩解对融化的影响

• DOI: 10.1002/essoar.10510805.1
• 发表时间: 2022
• 作者: Bradley A