Climate Risk Indicators: developing indicators of climate risk using UKCP18 to support risk assessments and enhance resilience

气候风险指标：使用 UKCP18 制定气候风险指标，以支持风险评估并增强抵御能力

• 批准号: NE/S016457/2
• 负责人: Alison Kay
• 金额: $ 3.99万
• 依托单位: UK CENTRE FOR ECOLOGY & HYDROLOGY
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2019 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FS016457%2F2
• 关键词: Climate; Risk; Indicators; developing; indicators

In order to enhance resilience to weather events and climate change, it is necessary to assess risk. This project provides first estimates of a series of indicators of climate risk, using UKCP18, relevant to climate risk assessments at national, devolved, and local levels, and over different time horizons. It will provide information valuable to the next Climate Change Risk Assessment, and help organisations understand their current and future risks.The project will also provide information about the relationship between future increases in temperature and future risk. For some indicators, risk will increase rapidly as temperature increases, but for others risk may only begin to increase significantly at higher temperature increases. Changes in risk will also be uncertain because we cannot yet predict future climate very precisely, so the project will also allow us to assess the confidence in projections of future risk.The project uses the new UKCP18 climate projections, and concentrates in the first instance on risks of weather extremes, floods and droughts, and risks to agricultural productivity.

为了增强对天气事件和气候变化的适应能力，有必要对风险进行评估。该项目使用UKCP18对一系列气候风险指标进行了首次估计，这些指标与国家、权力下放和地方各级以及不同时间范围内的气候风险评估有关。它将为下一次气候变化风险评估提供有价值的信息，并帮助组织了解它们当前和未来的风险。该项目还将提供有关未来气温上升和未来风险之间的关系的信息。对于一些指标，风险将随着气温的升高而迅速增加，但对其他指标来说，风险可能只有在温度升高时才会开始显著增加。风险的变化也将是不确定的，因为我们还不能非常准确地预测未来的气候，因此该项目还将使我们能够评估对未来风险预测的信心。该项目使用新的UKCP18气候预测，首先集中于极端天气、洪水和干旱的风险，以及对农业生产力的风险。

项目成果

Climate change effects on indicators of high and low river flow across Great Britain

气候变化对英国河流高流量和低流量指标的影响

• DOI: 10.1016/j.advwatres.2021.103909
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: Advances in Water Resources
• 影响因子: 4.7
• 作者: Kay A

Changing climate risk in the UK: A multi-sectoral analysis using policy-relevant indicators

• DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2020.100265
• 发表时间: 2021-01-20
• 期刊: CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT
• 影响因子: 4.4
• 作者: Arnell, N. W.;Kay, A. L.;Lowe, J. A.
• 通讯作者: Lowe, J. A.

Indicators of climate risk in the UK at different levels of warming

英国不同变暖程度的气候风险指标

• DOI: 10.1088/2515-7620/ac24c0
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: Environmental Research Communications
• 影响因子: 2.9
• 作者: Arnell N