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Actively anticipating the unintended consequences on air quality of future public policies (ANTICIPATE)

积极预测未来公共政策对空气质量的意外影响（ANTICIPATE）

基本信息

批准号：
NE/T001739/1
负责人：
Sarah Moller
金额：
$ 2.46万
依托单位：
University of York
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2019
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2019 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FT001739%2F1
关键词：
Actively anticipating unintended consequences air

项目摘要

UK public policies have significant environmental, economic, social and political consequences over both near and distant time horizons, with potential impacts for years to come. Policy decisions are therefore required to be resilient to a wide range of future scenarios, necessitating an integrated approach to policy appraisal beyond the confines of single Departments, and across all tiers of national and local Government. ANTICIPATE will address this need, contributing to more robust and resilient policy making through improved awareness of the positive and negative consequences outwith the core areas of intended impact. Poor air quality is considered by the UK Government to be "the largest environmental risk to public health in the UK". As well as human health, air pollution also has wider implications for the natural environment and for the economy. The draft Clean Air Strategy outlines ambitions for tackling this public health challenge by reducing UK air pollution, improving the environment and achieving economic growth. In recognition of the multiple interrelated sectors and transboundary relationships, its strategic goals are explicitly aligned for co-delivery with three core Government strategies: UK Industrial Strategy, Clean Growth Strategy, and 25 Year Environment Plan.ANTICIPATE will enable an in-depth and systems based analysis of four policies selected from these headline Government Strategies, as well as a key health strategy, the NHS Long Term Plan. A horizon scanning exercise, followed by scoping discussions with policy makers, will be used to identify suitable policies, that is, those that are at an early stage in development and that are likely to have implications for air quality. We will aim to include a broad range of policies, from those with clear links to air quality to those whose impact is less obvious, and include both nationally and locally focused ones. For each of the selected policies, workshops will be organised with participation from policy analysts, stakeholders, and air quality researchers to explore the policy proposals and their potential impacts on air quality, either perverse or beneficial or both, with an emphasis on identifying implications that had previously been unremarked or under emphasised. The workshops will also identify synergies and conflicts with other policies with implications for air quality. Through these workshops, ANTICIPATE will investigate novel applications of social science tools and techniques to enable rethinking and improvement of prospective policy ideas at the appraisal stage. The process will build a diverse, interdisciplinary network of stakeholders to apply a wide range of perspectives and expertise to the policies, probing implementation, possible outcomes, and the potential mitigation of adverse impacts and realisation of beneficial outcomes. The workshops may reveal issues and evidence gaps which will be shared with other researchers engaged in the Clean Air Programme and more widely to enable the academic research community to respond. A set of briefing papers focused on the conclusions from each individual policy exploration will be proactively disseminated to stakeholders from across the UK policy and research landscape.Throughout the project, activities will be monitored and evaluated, enabling improvement of the process on subsequent iterations as well as feeding into the production of guidance on applying an effective policy exploration process. At the end of the project a Manual will be produced providing guidance on appropriate use of methods for assessing the implications of future policy, bridging the gap between academic research and policy formulation. This will be available in multiple formats to ensure it is accessible to a range of potential beneficiaries ranging from other academics to local and national decision makers.

英国的公共政策在近期和远期都会产生重大的环境、经济、社会和政治后果，并在未来几年产生潜在影响。因此，政策决策需要能够适应各种未来情景，从而需要超越单一部门、跨国家和地方政府各级的综合政策评估方法。预期将满足这一需求，通过提高对预期影响的核心领域之外的积极和消极后果的认识，促进更加稳健和有弹性的政策制定。英国政府认为空气质量差是“英国公共卫生面临的最大环境风险”。除了人类健康之外，空气污染还对自然环境和经济产生更广泛的影响。清洁空气战略草案概述了通过减少英国空气污染、改善环境和实现经济增长来应对这一公共卫生挑战的雄心。认识到多个相互关联的部门和跨境关系，其战略目标明确与三项核心政府战略共同实施：英国工业战略、清洁增长战略和 25 年环境计划。ANTICIPATE 将对从这些政府战略中选出的四项政策以及一项关键的健康战略（NHS 长期计划）进行深入和系统的分析。将进行地平线扫描练习，然后与政策制定者进行范围讨论，以确定合适的政策，即那些处于制定早期阶段且可能对空气质量产生影响的政策。我们的目标是纳入广泛的政策，从与空气质量有明显联系的政策到影响不太明显的政策，并包括以国家和地方为重点的政策。对于每项选定的政策，将组织由政策分析师、利益相关者和空气质量研究人员参加的研讨会，以探讨政策提案及其对空气质量的潜在影响，无论是有害的还是有益的，或两者兼而有之，重点是确定以前未被注意到或低估的影响。研讨会还将确定与其他政策对空气质量影响的协同作用和冲突。通过这些研讨会，ANTICIPATE 将研究社会科学工具和技术的新颖应用，以便在评估阶段重新思考和改进前瞻性政策理念。该过程将建立一个多元化、跨学科的利益相关者网络，将广泛的观点和专业知识应用于政策、探索实施、可能的结果以及潜在的不利影响缓解和实现有益结果。研讨会可能会揭示问题和证据差距，这些问题和证据差距将与参与清洁空气计划的其他研究人员分享，并更广泛地让学术研究界做出回应。一组侧重于每个政策探索结论的简报将主动分发给英国政策和研究领域的利益相关者。在整个项目中，将对活动进行监测和评估，从而改进后续迭代的流程，并为应用有效的政策探索流程提供指导。项目结束时，将编写一份手册，为评估未来政策影响的适当使用方法提供指导，弥合学术研究和政策制定之间的差距。该信息将以多种形式提供，以确保从其他学者到地方和国家决策者等一系列潜在受益者都可以使用它。