Actively anticipating the unintended consequences on air quality of future public policies (ANTICIPATE)

积极预测未来公共政策对空气质量的意外影响（ANTICIPATE）

基本信息

批准号：
NE/T001739/1
负责人：
Sarah Moller
金额：
$ 2.46万
依托单位：
University of York
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2019
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2019 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FT001739%2F1
关键词：
Actively anticipating unintended consequences air

项目摘要

UK public policies have significant environmental, economic, social and political consequences over both near and distant time horizons, with potential impacts for years to come. Policy decisions are therefore required to be resilient to a wide range of future scenarios, necessitating an integrated approach to policy appraisal beyond the confines of single Departments, and across all tiers of national and local Government. ANTICIPATE will address this need, contributing to more robust and resilient policy making through improved awareness of the positive and negative consequences outwith the core areas of intended impact. Poor air quality is considered by the UK Government to be "the largest environmental risk to public health in the UK". As well as human health, air pollution also has wider implications for the natural environment and for the economy. The draft Clean Air Strategy outlines ambitions for tackling this public health challenge by reducing UK air pollution, improving the environment and achieving economic growth. In recognition of the multiple interrelated sectors and transboundary relationships, its strategic goals are explicitly aligned for co-delivery with three core Government strategies: UK Industrial Strategy, Clean Growth Strategy, and 25 Year Environment Plan.ANTICIPATE will enable an in-depth and systems based analysis of four policies selected from these headline Government Strategies, as well as a key health strategy, the NHS Long Term Plan. A horizon scanning exercise, followed by scoping discussions with policy makers, will be used to identify suitable policies, that is, those that are at an early stage in development and that are likely to have implications for air quality. We will aim to include a broad range of policies, from those with clear links to air quality to those whose impact is less obvious, and include both nationally and locally focused ones. For each of the selected policies, workshops will be organised with participation from policy analysts, stakeholders, and air quality researchers to explore the policy proposals and their potential impacts on air quality, either perverse or beneficial or both, with an emphasis on identifying implications that had previously been unremarked or under emphasised. The workshops will also identify synergies and conflicts with other policies with implications for air quality. Through these workshops, ANTICIPATE will investigate novel applications of social science tools and techniques to enable rethinking and improvement of prospective policy ideas at the appraisal stage. The process will build a diverse, interdisciplinary network of stakeholders to apply a wide range of perspectives and expertise to the policies, probing implementation, possible outcomes, and the potential mitigation of adverse impacts and realisation of beneficial outcomes. The workshops may reveal issues and evidence gaps which will be shared with other researchers engaged in the Clean Air Programme and more widely to enable the academic research community to respond. A set of briefing papers focused on the conclusions from each individual policy exploration will be proactively disseminated to stakeholders from across the UK policy and research landscape.Throughout the project, activities will be monitored and evaluated, enabling improvement of the process on subsequent iterations as well as feeding into the production of guidance on applying an effective policy exploration process. At the end of the project a Manual will be produced providing guidance on appropriate use of methods for assessing the implications of future policy, bridging the gap between academic research and policy formulation. This will be available in multiple formats to ensure it is accessible to a range of potential beneficiaries ranging from other academics to local and national decision makers.

英国的公共政策在近距离和遥远的时间范围内都具有重大的环境，经济，社会和政治后果，并在未来几年内产生了潜在的影响。因此，政策决策必须对各种未来的情况有弹性，这需要对单个部门以及国家和地方政府的所有层次进行综合的政策评估方法。预期将满足这一需求，从而通过提高对预期影响的核心领域的积极和负面后果的认识，从而有助于更强大和更有弹性的政策制定。英国政府认为空气质量差是“英国公共卫生最大的环境风险”。除人类健康外，空气污染还对自然环境和经济具有更大的影响。清洁空气战略草案概述了通过减少英国空气污染，改善环境并实现经济增长来应对这一公共卫生挑战的野心。为了认识到多个相互关联的部门和跨界关系，其战略目标与三种核心政府战略明确保持一致：英国工业战略，清洁增长战略和25年的环境计划。地平线扫描练习，然后与政策制定者进行范围的讨论，以确定合适的政策，即在开发早期阶段的政策，这些政策可能对空气质量产生影响。我们的目标是包括各种各样的政策，从与空气质量有明确的联系的政策到影响不太明显并包括全国和本地专注的政策。对于每个选定的政策，将在政策分析师，利益相关者和空气质量研究人员的参与下组织研讨会，以探索政策建议及其对空气质量的潜在影响，无论是不正当或有益或有益或两者兼而有之），重点是确定以前没有被强调或不强调的意义。这些研讨会还将确定与其他政策对空气质量的影响的协同作用和冲突。通过这些研讨会，预期将调查社会科学工具和技术的新应用，以使评估阶段重新思考和改进潜在的政策思想。该过程将建立一个多样化的利益相关者跨学科网络，以将广泛的观点和专业知识应用于政策，探查实施，可能的结果以及潜在的减轻不利影响和实现有益结果的潜在减轻。研讨会可能会揭示问题和证据差距，这些问题将与其他从事清洁空气计划的研究人员共享，并更广泛地使学术研究界做出回应。一系列关注每个单独政策探索结论的简报论文将被积极地传播给来自英国政策和研究格局的利益相关者。通过该项目，将对其进行监控和评估活动，从而改善随后的迭代过程，并进食有效的政策探索过程的指导。在项目结束时，将制作一本手册，以提供适当使用方法来评估未来政策含义的指导，从而弥合学术研究和政策制定之间的差距。这将以多种格式提供，以确保从其他学者到本地和国家决策者的一系列潜在受益人可以使用。