QUoRUM: QUantifying and Reducing Uncertainty in Multi-Decadal Projection of Ice Sheet-Sea Level Contribution

QUoRUM：量化和减少冰盖-海平面贡献的数十年预测的不确定性

• 批准号: NE/T001607/1
• 负责人: Daniel Goldberg
• 金额: $ 50.31万
• 依托单位: University of Edinburgh
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2020 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FT001607%2F1
• 关键词: QUoRUM; QUantifying; Reducing; Uncertainty; Multi

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet contains enough ice to cause 3.3 meters of sea level rise. The ice streams of its Amundsen Sea sector, which alone could contribute up to 1.2 meters of sea level rise, are thinning faster than in any other region on earth, and have the potential for rapid collapse due to inland-deepening bedrock. Using a combination of novel inverse modelling, a comprehensive ice-sheet model, and remote sensing we will: 1) Estimate the present state of the critical Amundsen sector2) Predict its future behaviour3) Quantify the uncertainty of these estimates and predictions The physics of ice-sheet retreat is qualitatively understood, but the detailed behaviour is dependent upon a very large number of parameters that cannot be measured directly (e.g, spatially-varying basal traction and ice stiffness). However, numerical ice sheet models have now evolved to the point where a number of relevant physical processes, such as grounding line movement and ice-sheet response to ocean forcing, can be represented accurately. Moreover, the satellite-observational record continues to grow, creating opportunities for assimilation of this new data into models. Such a model-data synthesis can allow key underlying and hidden physical parameters to be determined, facilitating data-driven prediction of future ice-sheet contribution to sea levels.However, techniques for the assimilation of data using ice sheet models remain at an early stage. A considerable amount of data remains unused and fundamental questions, such as the specific information required for reliable predictions, remain unanswered. Moreover, model simulations of future behaviour of ice sheets generally do not account for the uncertainty inherent in estimates of hidden parameters, which can potentially grow with forecast horizons. Accounting for these uncertainties is vital so that informed risk and cost-benefit analyses of sea-level rise protection and adaptation can be carried out.In the proposed project we will develop a model-based framework which will efficiently assimilate the data record for the Amundsen sector (Fig. 1), providing estimates of key physical quantities, and predictions of future behaviour. Crucially, measures of uncertainty will be provided for the estimate and predictions. We will further study the impact that different observations have on our model predictions and uncertainty therein, providing information that will be of value to future observational campaigns. While the Amundsen region is chosen as a focus in the interest of critical relevance and timeliness, the methodology can be applied more generally in other regions of Antarctica, or Greenland.

南极西部冰盖的冰量足以导致海平面上升3.3米。仅阿蒙森海域的冰流就可能导致海平面上升1.2米，其变薄的速度比地球上任何其他地区都要快，并且由于内陆基岩的加深，有可能迅速崩塌。结合使用新的逆建模、综合冰盖模型和遥感，我们将：1)估计关键阿蒙森扇区的现状；2)预测其未来行为；3)量化这些估计和预测的不确定性。冰盖退缩的物理性质已被定性地理解，但详细的行为依赖于大量不能直接测量的参数（例如，空间变化的基础牵引和冰刚度）。然而，现在的数值冰盖模式已经发展到可以精确地表示一些相关的物理过程，如接地线移动和冰盖对海洋强迫的响应。此外，卫星观测记录继续增长，为将这些新数据同化到模式中创造了机会。这种模式-数据综合可以确定关键的潜在和隐藏的物理参数，促进数据驱动的未来冰盖对海平面贡献的预测。然而，利用冰盖模式同化数据的技术仍处于初级阶段。相当数量的数据仍未得到利用，诸如可靠预测所需的具体资料等基本问题仍未得到解答。此外，对冰盖未来行为的模式模拟一般不考虑隐藏参数估计中固有的不确定性，这些不确定性可能随着预测范围的扩大而增加。考虑到这些不确定性至关重要，这样才能对海平面上升的保护和适应进行知情的风险和成本效益分析。在拟议的项目中，我们将开发一个基于模型的框架，该框架将有效地吸收Amundsen部门的数据记录（图1），提供关键物理量的估计，并预测未来的行为。至关重要的是，将为估计和预测提供不确定性的度量。我们将进一步研究不同观测对我们模式预测的影响以及其中的不确定性，为未来的观测活动提供有价值的信息。虽然选择阿蒙森地区作为重点是为了重要的相关性和及时性，但这种方法可以更普遍地适用于南极洲或格陵兰岛的其他地区。

项目成果

A comparison of the performance of depth-integrated ice-dynamics solvers

深度集成冰动力学求解器的性能比较

• DOI: 10.5194/tc-2021-239
• 发表时间: 2021
• 作者: Robinson A

The Relative Impacts of Initialization and Climate Forcing in Coupled Ice Sheet-Ocean Modeling: Application to Pope, Smith, and Kohler Glaciers

冰盖-海洋耦合模型中初始化和气候强迫的相对影响：在 Pope、Smith 和 Kohler 冰川中的应用

• DOI: 10.1029/2021jf006570
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Earth Surface
• 作者: Goldberg D

Results of the third Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (MISMIP+)

第三次海洋冰盖模型比对项目（MISMIP）的结果

• DOI: 10.5194/tc-2019-326
• 发表时间: 2020
• 作者: Cornford S

The relative impacts of initialisation and climate forcing in coupled ice sheet-ocean modelling: application to Pope, Smith and Kohler glaciers

冰盖-海洋耦合模型中初始化和气候强迫的相对影响：在波普冰川、史密斯冰川和科勒冰川中的应用

• DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1125
• 发表时间: 2022
• 作者: Goldberg D

The Non-Local Impacts of Antarctic Subglacial Runoff

南极冰下径流的非局部影响

• DOI: 10.1029/2023jc019823
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Oceans
• 作者: Goldberg D