QUoRUM: QUantifying and Reducing Uncertainty in Multi-Decadal Projection of Ice Sheet-Sea Level Contribution

QUoRUM：量化和减少冰盖-海平面贡献的数十年预测的不确定性

• 批准号: NE/T001607/1
• 负责人: Daniel Goldberg
• 金额: $ 50.31万
• 依托单位: University of Edinburgh
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2020 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FT001607%2F1
• 关键词: QUoRUM; QUantifying; Reducing; Uncertainty; Multi

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet contains enough ice to cause 3.3 meters of sea level rise. The ice streams of its Amundsen Sea sector, which alone could contribute up to 1.2 meters of sea level rise, are thinning faster than in any other region on earth, and have the potential for rapid collapse due to inland-deepening bedrock. Using a combination of novel inverse modelling, a comprehensive ice-sheet model, and remote sensing we will: 1) Estimate the present state of the critical Amundsen sector2) Predict its future behaviour3) Quantify the uncertainty of these estimates and predictions The physics of ice-sheet retreat is qualitatively understood, but the detailed behaviour is dependent upon a very large number of parameters that cannot be measured directly (e.g, spatially-varying basal traction and ice stiffness). However, numerical ice sheet models have now evolved to the point where a number of relevant physical processes, such as grounding line movement and ice-sheet response to ocean forcing, can be represented accurately. Moreover, the satellite-observational record continues to grow, creating opportunities for assimilation of this new data into models. Such a model-data synthesis can allow key underlying and hidden physical parameters to be determined, facilitating data-driven prediction of future ice-sheet contribution to sea levels.However, techniques for the assimilation of data using ice sheet models remain at an early stage. A considerable amount of data remains unused and fundamental questions, such as the specific information required for reliable predictions, remain unanswered. Moreover, model simulations of future behaviour of ice sheets generally do not account for the uncertainty inherent in estimates of hidden parameters, which can potentially grow with forecast horizons. Accounting for these uncertainties is vital so that informed risk and cost-benefit analyses of sea-level rise protection and adaptation can be carried out.In the proposed project we will develop a model-based framework which will efficiently assimilate the data record for the Amundsen sector (Fig. 1), providing estimates of key physical quantities, and predictions of future behaviour. Crucially, measures of uncertainty will be provided for the estimate and predictions. We will further study the impact that different observations have on our model predictions and uncertainty therein, providing information that will be of value to future observational campaigns. While the Amundsen region is chosen as a focus in the interest of critical relevance and timeliness, the methodology can be applied more generally in other regions of Antarctica, or Greenland.

南极西部冰盖含有足够的冰，可引起3.3米的海平面上升。其Amundsen Sea区的冰流可以造成高达1.2米的海平面上升，比地球上任何其他地区都要稀疏，并且由于内陆深层的基岩而有可能快速崩溃。结合新颖的逆建模，全面的冰单模型和遥感我们将：1）估计关键阿蒙森群体的当前状态2）预测其未来行为3）量化这些估计值的不确定性和预测物理的不确定性。冰单撤退的物理性质是定性地理解的，但是详细的行为是依赖详细的依赖性的，这是依赖的，这是依赖的，均可依赖于大量的参数。牵引力和冰刚度）。但是，数值冰盖模型现在已经演变为可以准确表示许多相关的物理过程，例如接地线移动和对海洋强迫的冰分响应。此外，卫星观察记录不断增长，为将该新数据吸收的机会创造了机会。这样的模型数据合成可以确定基础和隐藏的物理参数，从而促进数据驱动的未来冰盖对海平面的贡献的预测。大量数据仍未使用，基本问题，例如可靠预测所需的具体信息，尚未得到解决。此外，冰盖未来行为的模型模拟通常不能说明隐藏参数估计中固有的不确定性，这些不确定性可能会随着预测范围而增长。对这些不确定性的核算至关重要，因此可以对海平面上升保护和适应的知情风险和成本效益分析进行。在拟议的项目中，我们将开发一个基于模型的框架，该框架将有效地吸收Amundsen部门的数据记录（图1）（图1），从而估计了未来的关键物理量和预测未来的估计。至关重要的是，将为估计和预测提供不确定性的措施。我们将进一步研究不同的观察对我们的模型预测和不确定性的影响，从而提供对未来观察活动具有价值的信息。虽然将阿蒙森地区作为关注的重点，以临界相关性和及时性，但该方法可以更普遍地应用于南极或格陵兰岛的其他地区。

项目成果

A comparison of the performance of depth-integrated ice-dynamics solvers

深度集成冰动力学求解器的性能比较

• DOI: 10.5194/tc-2021-239
• 发表时间: 2021
• 作者: Robinson A

The Relative Impacts of Initialization and Climate Forcing in Coupled Ice Sheet-Ocean Modeling: Application to Pope, Smith, and Kohler Glaciers

冰盖-海洋耦合模型中初始化和气候强迫的相对影响：在 Pope、Smith 和 Kohler 冰川中的应用

• DOI: 10.1029/2021jf006570
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Earth Surface
• 作者: Goldberg D

Results of the third Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (MISMIP+)

第三次海洋冰盖模型比对项目（MISMIP）的结果

• DOI: 10.5194/tc-2019-326
• 发表时间: 2020
• 作者: Cornford S

The Non-Local Impacts of Antarctic Subglacial Runoff

南极冰下径流的非局部影响

• DOI: 10.1029/2023jc019823
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Oceans
• 作者: Goldberg D

The relative impacts of initialisation and climate forcing in coupled ice sheet-ocean modelling: application to Pope, Smith and Kohler glaciers

冰盖-海洋耦合模型中初始化和气候强迫的相对影响：在波普冰川、史密斯冰川和科勒冰川中的应用

• DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1125
• 发表时间: 2022
• 作者: Goldberg D