SMARTIES: Surveillance and Management of multiple Risks to Treescapes: Integrating Epidemiology and Stakeholder behaviour

英国的树种受到越来越多的病虫害的威胁，造成了巨大的经济、环境和社会代价。防止这种威胁的引入往往是困难的，因此，及早发现和成功管理是科学能够发挥作用的关键领域。英国植物健康风险登记册上有1000多种威胁，其中许多是树种的严重害虫。因此，树宿主可能会同时面临不止一个威胁。以前有人呼吁采取更多的系统办法来管理生物安全威胁，但科学研究仍然倾向于集中在单一物种上，忽视了多种有害生物/疾病之间可能的相互作用，以及土地管理者专注于管理树木，而不是管理病虫害的事实。以科学为基础的办法常常忽视的第二个方面是，管理人员有能力和愿意采纳关于监测和管理病虫害和疾病的咨询意见，以及更广泛的社会对不同办法的接受程度。在这个项目中，我们将开发一种真正的跨学科方法来了解控制对树木健康的多种威胁的入侵和传播的关键流行病学和人类行为因素，从而确定在整个系统水平上的成功监测和管理，而不是在特定害虫的基础上。这种英国本土树种目前受到白蜡树枯萎病(ADB)的影响，这是一种毁灭性的疾病，据报道，这种疾病给英国经济造成了约150亿英镑的损失。然而，英国的白蜡树面临着来自翡翠白蜡虫(EAB)的潜在入侵的新威胁。虽然还不在这里，但EAB被EFSA列为最危险的三种入侵害虫之一。它在俄罗斯的存在已经得到证实，它正在向西移动。在已经建立良好的亚行的背景下，对EAB的监测可能会更具挑战性，因为围绕亚行和EAB相互作用的不确定性，可能受到亚行和EAB影响的白蜡树将进一步使土地所有者和政策制定者面临的管理决策复杂化。我们的伙伴关系包括(I)流行病学过程建模，(Ii)监测战略的设计，(Iii)植物病理学和昆虫学，(Iv)树木病虫害的人为因素，(V)人类行为模型和森林管理决策。我们汇集了理想的技能组合，以应对管理新的和新出现的有害生物威胁的挑战。根据我们的经验，我们将开发一个模型，研究亚行的分布和传播以及EAB在空间清晰的景观中的扩散。通过分析来自美国和俄罗斯的埃博拉病毒传播数据，我们将确定可能发生的自然和人为传播的影响。这将被用来告知和验证我们的流行病学模型。我们将把这一模型与基于我们的社会科学研究的利益相关者行为的新模型相结合，该模型捕捉影响与监督和控制相关的决策的重要态度和行为。利益攸关方的观点和决策将被动态建模，使他们能够随着时间的推移实际地改变，以应对同行和外部影响。相关模型将使我们能够确定如何最好地部署监测和管理资源，以考虑环境条件对风险的影响以及影响生物安全知识、态度和行为的社会学因素，并确定提高社会对管理行动的接受度的方法。我们将使用我们的基于模型的分析，与包括Defra EAB准备委员会、EFSA、林业委员会在内的主要利益攸关方共同设计监督和管理解决方案，这些委员会将为政策制定提供信息和反馈。

Tree-species in the UK are threatened by an increasing number of pests and diseases resulting in large economic, environmental and social costs. Preventing the introduction of such threats is often difficult, therefore, early detection and successful management are key areas where science can deliver. There are over 1000 threats on the UK plant-health risk register, and many are serious pests of tree species. A tree-host may therefore face more than one threat at once. There have been previous calls for more systems approaches to managing biosecurity threats but scientific research still tends to focus on single species, ignoring possible interactions of multiple pests/ diseases and the fact that land managers focus on managing the tree, rather than managing a pest or disease. A second facet that is often neglected by science-based approaches is the ability and willingness of managers to adopt advice on the surveillance and management of pests and diseases as well as the acceptability of different approaches in wider society. In this project, we will develop a truly interdisciplinary approach to understand the key epidemiological and human behavioural factors that govern the invasion and spread of multiple threats to tree health and so determine successful surveillance and management at a whole system level, rather than on a pest specific basis.Emerging threats to UK ash trees (Fraxinus excelsior) offer an important case study for our research. This UK native tree species is currently impacted by Ash Dieback (ADB), a devastating disease which is reported to have caused an estimated loss of £15 billion to the UK economy. However, ash trees in the UK face a new threat from the potential invasion of the Emerald Ash Borer (EAB), Agrilus planipennis. Although not here yet, EAB is ranked in the top three most dangerous invasive pests by EFSA. Its presence has been confirmed in Russia and it is moving West. Surveillance for EAB in the context of the already well established ADB is likely to be much more challenging because of the uncertainties surrounding ADB and EAB interactions, Ash trees that may be impacted by both ADB and EAB will further complicate management decisions faced by landowners and policy makers.Our partnership comprises expertise in (i) modelling epidemiological processes, (ii) the design of surveillance strategies, (iii) plant pathology and entomology, (iv) the human dimensions of tree pests and diseases (v) modelling of human behaviour and forest management decision-making. We bring together the ideal combination of skills to tackle the challenge of managing new and emerging pest threats. Drawing on our experience, we will develop a model of the distribution and spread of ADB and the dispersal of EAB in a spatially explicit landscape. By analysing data on the spread of EAB from the USA and Russia we will determine the effect of both natural and anthropogenic spread that can occur. This will be used to inform and validate our epidemiological model. We will integrate this model with a novel model of stakeholder behaviour based on our social science research that captures the important attitudes and behaviours that affect decisions related to surveillance and control. Stakeholder perspectives and decision-making will be modelled dynamically allowing them to realistically change over time in response to peer and external influence. The linked models will allow us to identify how best to deploy surveillance and management resource to account for the impact of environmental conditions on risk and the sociological factors that influence biosecurity knowledge, attitudes and behaviours and identify approaches to improve social acceptability of management actions. We will use our model-based analysis to co-design surveillance and management solutions with key stakeholders including Defra EAB preparedness board, EFSA, the Forestry Commission that will inform and feed into policy development.