Preparedness and planning for the mountain hazard and risk chain in Nepal

发展中国家有近10亿人生活在山区。在山区，季风降雨、地震和山体滑坡等多重灾害的影响已成为许多人日常面临的现实。灾害的短期和长期影响往往因其同时发生或相继发生的时间以及发生的社会政治背景而被夸大。这种情况是由分散的政府、快速的人口变化和全球（地缘）政治利益的非常局部的影响造成的。因此，灾害对一些最脆弱的社会成员产生了经常性和不成比例的影响。虽然对社会政治背景和人们面临的个人危害和风险进行了大量研究，但这项工作很少用于灾害风险管理。为了解决这个问题，我们建立在我们现有的长期合作的基础上，目的是研究如何最好地开发和使用新的跨学科科学，以帮助更好地制定决策，减少山区多重灾害的影响。我们重点关注尼泊尔，该国与其他低收入国家有许多相似之处，这些国家面临着地震、季风降雨以及新出现的系统性风险等复杂的多重灾害。尼泊尔也正在经历复杂的社会、政治和经济转型，这与联邦政府制度的变化和不断变化的地缘政治压力有关，所有这些都发生在一个危险但人口稠密的地区。我们研究的每个目标都旨在对居民、政府和国际社会管理多重危害和系统性风险的决策方式产生重大影响。它们包括：(1)批判性地思考我们目前对尼泊尔灾害发生的社会、政治、经济和环境背景的理解，以及我们用来评估该背景的数据；(2)为复杂的多灾害事件（包括相关地震、季风和山体滑坡的后果）建立国家规模战略规划的新方法；(3)发展跨学科科学，以预测、规划和传播季风期间发生的一系列危害；(4)寻找利用当地知识和跨学科科学的最佳途径，为如何准备和应对多种灾害提供信息。潜在的应用和益处为了实现我们的目标，我们汇集了一个由尼泊尔和国际研究人员组成的团队，他们来自不同的学科，包括地球科学、社会科学和人文科学，他们在这个问题的各个方面都有记录。我们的共同目标是：(1)开发新的基础数据和证据来支持决策；(2)建立途径，以有用和可用的格式和时间框架向需要的人提供尽可能最好的信息；(3)批判性地思考如何有效管理多重灾害和风险；(4)培育支持年轻研究人员和实践者的环境，他们将成为尼泊尔灾害风险管理的未来。我们的建议基于我们与尼泊尔农村居民的长期社区合作，并反思他们对做出更好决策以减少他们面临的风险的需求。我们还与协调尼泊尔灾害规划的尼泊尔政府和联合国合作开展风险管理工作。政府、联合国以及主要的发展和人道主义组织从一开始就参与了这项提案的制定，以确保对多灾害和风险管理采取灵活、联合、循证的方法。

ContextNearly 1 bn people live in mountain landscapes within developing countries. Living with the impacts of multiple hazards in mountainous regions, such as monsoon rainfall, earthquakes and landsliding, is for many a day-to-day reality. Both the short- and long-term impacts of hazards are often exaggerated by their concurrent or sequential timing, and by the socio-political context in which they occur. This context results from fragmented government, rapid population change, and the very localized impacts of global (geo)political interests. As a result, hazards have recurring and disproportionate impacts on some of the most vulnerable members of society. While much research has been conducted on both the socio-political context and the individual hazards and risks that people face, this work is rarely used for disaster risk management. Aims & objectivesTo tackle this, we build on our existing long-standing collaborations with the aim of examining how best to develop and use new interdisciplinary science to help inform better decision making and reduce the impacts of multi-hazards in mountain countries. We focus on Nepal, which has many similarities to other lower-income countries that endure complex multi-hazards resulting from earthquakes and monsoon rainfall as well as emerging systemic risks. Nepal is also undergoing complex social, political and economic transformation associated with a change to a federal system of government and changing geopolitical pressures, all within a hazardous yet densely populated landscape.The objectives of our research are each designed to make a significant difference to the ways in which residents, government, and the international community take decisions to manage multi-hazards and systemic risks. They include:(1) Thinking critically about our current understanding of the social, political, economic and environmental context within which disasters occur in Nepal, and the data that we use to assess that context;(2) Establishing a new approach to national-scale strategic-planning for complex multi-hazard events, which includes the consequences of linked earthquakes, monsoons and landslides;(3) Developing interdisciplinary science to anticipate, plan for, and communicate the range of hazards that occur during the monsoon; and(4) Finding the best ways to utilise local knowledge and interdisciplinary science to inform how to prepare for and respond to multi-hazard disasters.Potential applications and benefitTo achieve our objectives, we bring together a team of Nepali and international researchers from a range of disciplines, including geoscience, social science and the humanities, who have track records in various facets of this issue. Together, we aim to: (1) develop new fundamental data and evidence to underpin decision-making, (2) establish pathways for getting the best possible information to those who need it, in a format and timeframe that are useful and usable, (3) think critically about how multi-hazards and risks can be effectively managed, and (4) nurture an environment that supports the young researchers and practitioners who will be the future of disaster risk management in Nepal.We ground our proposal within the context of our long-term community-based work with rural residents in Nepal, and reflect upon their articulations of the need to make better decisions to reduce the risks that they face. We also build upon our work on managing risks with the Government of Nepal and the United Nations, who coordinate disaster planning in the country. The Government, UN, and major development and humanitarian organisations have been involved from the outset in developing this proposal to ensure an agile, joined-up, evidence-based approach to multi-hazard and risk management.