NC ODA 1 Year Extension

ACREW的总体目标是开展研究，建立发展中国家对大气危害的适应能力。拟议的工作方案将侧重于两种危害：空气污染和恶劣天气——这两种危害对穷人的影响都不成比例。在许多发展中经济体，空气污染是一个严重的问题，它使预期寿命减少了10年，GDP每年减少5%。薄弱的基础设施和对雨养农业的依赖使发展中国家的人口极易受到天气变化的影响。在“发展中国家的大气危害：风险评估和预警”（ACREW）项目（2017-2020）中，国家科学院重点关注两种特定的大气危害，与当地合作伙伴合作，将前沿研究转化为实际应用。在ACREW项目为期一年的延长期内，我们将以两个关键研究主题为基础——建立空气污染测量的新技术能力，以及对影响农业部门的气象灾害的新预测能力，这两个主题都以非洲为重点。尽管涉及这两个主题的研究活动和伙伴关系在科学上彼此不同，但我们在NCAS内以综合方式开展工作，分享oda相关研究的最佳实践，并在可能的情况下利用我们在空气质量和气象灾害方面的合作伙伴网络，以接触更多的用户群体。在空气污染科学领域，我们在为期一年的扩展中特别关注新型开源测量工具的开发，以传感器科学和制造方面的最新突破为基础。在气象灾害领域，我们确定了一系列案例研究作为重点，以最大限度地发挥影响，并维持在ACREW早期阶段建立的伙伴关系。联合国儿童基金会2019年的报告《非洲无声窒息》强调了中低收入国家在量化空气污染的技术能力方面长期存在重大差距。现有的监控设备不能承受不可靠的供电，运行成本高，能源需求高，长期维护成本非常昂贵。在过去的三年里，ACREW为世界上最贫穷国家可持续空气质量信息的基础科学提供了新的见解。NCAS开创了一个全新的可持续测量概念，利用最先进的传感器和电子设备的简单性，适度的成本和高可靠性，但通过采用集成（或“集群”）的多路传感器测量，大大提高了收集数据的质量。我们正在这里寻求开展研究活动，目标是为空气质量测量创造一种经过实地测试、可扩展和实用的解决方案。这项为期一年的延期将使NCAS能够集中精力共同设计、共同生产和现场测试用于空气污染测量的高容错传感器系统。在ACREW的前几个阶段，改进了分季节到季节（S2S）时间尺度的气象预报，促进了评估农业干旱、热带气旋和极端降雨风险的新方法的发展。此外，新的观测和再分析阐明了与中美洲风能供应有关的可能可预测的大尺度环流制度。在上述所有应用中，通过考虑预测技能的变化，风险评估可以得到进一步改进。例如，在MJO的特定阶段，对极端降雨的预测可能更加可靠。确定可靠预测的机会窗口和改进风险评估的实际应用将是ACREW下一阶段的主题。

The overarching aim of ACREW is to undertake research that builds thew resilience of developing countries to atmospheric hazards. The proposed programme of work will focus on two hazards: air pollution and adverse weather - both of which disproportionately impact poor people. Air pollution is a critical problem in many developing economies, reducing life expectancy by up to a decade, and GDP by up to 5% per year. Weak infrastructure and dependence on rain fed agriculture render the populations of developing countries critically vulnerable to variation in the weather. Within the Atmospheric hazard in developing Countries: Risk assessment and Early Warning (ACREW) project (2017-2020) NCAS has focused on two particular atmospheric hazards, working with local partners to translate cutting edge research into practical application. In this one-year extension to the ACREW project, we build on two key research themes - building new technological capability for air pollution measurement, and new predictive capability for meteorological hazards that impact the agriculture sectors, both with a focus on Africa. Although the research activities and partnerships involved in these two themes are scientifically distinct from one another, we work in an integrated way across NCAS to share best practice in ODA-related research, and where possible use our networks of partners in air quality and meteorological hazard to reach a boarder user audience. In the area of air pollution science we particularly focus in this one-year extension on the development of novel open-source measurement tools, building on recent breakthroughs made in sensor science and fabrication. In the area of meteorological hazards, we have identified a series of case studies as the focus, in order to maximise impact and sustain the partnerships developed in the earlier phases of ACREW.There is a long-standing critical gap in technological capability for quantifying air pollution in LMICs most recently highlighted by the 2019 UNICEF report "Silent suffocation in Africa". Existing monitoring equipment are not tolerant to unreliable power supplies, have high operational costs, high energy demand, and are very expensive to maintain in the long-term. Over the past three years ACREW has delivered new insight into the basic science of sustainable air-quality information in the world's poorest countries. NCAS has pioneered an entirely new concept for sustainable measurements exploiting the simplicity, modest cost and high reliability of state-of-the-art sensors and electronics, but drastically improving the quality of data collected by employing a multiplexed sensors measuring in an ensemble (or 'cluster'). We are seeking here to undertake research activities with the goal to create a field-tested scalable and practical solution for air quality measurement. This one-year extension will enable NCAS to focus efforts on co-designing, co-producing and field testing highly fault-tolerant sensor-based systems for air pollution measurement. In the previous stages of ACREW, improved meteorological prediction on sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales has facilitated the development of new methodologies for assessing the risk of agricultural drought, tropical cyclones and extreme rainfall . New observations and reanalysis have, furthermore, elucidated potentially predictable large scale circulation regimes associated with wind energy supply in Central America. In all of the applications described above, risk assessment could be improved further by accounting for variation in prediction skill. For example, predictions of extreme rainfall may be more robust during particular phases of the MJO. Identification of windows of opportunity for robust prediction, and practical application for improved risk assessment will be the themes of the next phase of ACREW.