Space Weather Instrumentation, Measurement, Modelling and Risk: Thermosphere (SWIMMR-T)
空间天气仪器、测量、建模和风险:热层 (SWIMMR-T)
基本信息
- 批准号:NE/V002708/1
- 负责人:
- 金额:$ 56.51万
- 依托单位:
- 依托单位国家:英国
- 项目类别:Research Grant
- 财政年份:2020
- 资助国家:英国
- 起止时间:2020 至 无数据
- 项目状态:未结题
- 来源:
- 关键词:
项目摘要
Space debris is emerging as a key problem with the potential to cause major socio-economic impacts. It is currently estimated that there are over 900,000 pieces of debris greater than 1 cm orbiting the Earth. Collisions with such objects can destroy satellite instruments, subsystems and even the satellite itself. On average the United States Strategic Command issue ~900 Conjunction Data Messages (providing expected miss distance, estimated probability of collision, time of closest approach, and closest approach relative position and velocity) to users every day.The European Space Agency currently estimates that the economic loss to European satellite operators from collisions and unnecessary avoidance manoeuvres is in excess of £200 million per year. Moreover, with the number of objects (> 1 cm) increasing by ~70,000 per year, collisions will inevitably increase and if the debris reaches a critical density, an uncontrolled collision cascade known as the Kessler Syndrome is likely to occur. This has the potential to limit use of LEO and to increase concerns for the safety of all spaceflight. As such, there are two primary concerns: the sustainability of space activities over the longer-term, and the safety of spaceflight over the shorter-term. Therefore it is essential not only to reduce the number of debris objects in LEO, but also to improve the accuracy in predictions of near misses and to enable timely and efficient planning of collision avoidance manoeuvres. However, a major problem is that current orbit modelling and prediction is insufficiently accurate because of the time varying drag effect of the upper atmosphere on satellites. The dominant unknown in orbital trajectory predictions of LEO objects is the density of the upper atmosphere (thermosphere), which exerts a time and location dependent drag. Given that the thermospheric density can vary by 80% diurnally and by 250% during a solar storm this is a major modelling challenge. Contemporary models used to forecast orbit trajectories are empirical and can result in large uncertainties corresponding to positional errors of kilometres after just one day. These inaccuracies result in unnecessary satellite avoidance manoeuvres at great cost to satellite operators.In order to better predict orbital conjunctions a fully coupled (neutral and ionized) model of the lower and upper atmosphere is required into which a broad range of measurement data can be assimilated using novel mathematical techniques. This approach will provide a complete and accurate picture of the ionosphere and thermosphere.Our programme seeks to secure a step-change in the Met Office's (and more broadly the UK's) ability to specify and forecast the thermosphere. To achieve our objectives, we will leverage background IP from previous NERC, EPSRC, UKSA, ESA and Dstl grants and contracts and explore new techniques. In the case of the leveraged IP we expect that all models will be at TRL 6 by the grant end and new research will be on a best efforts basis. We will achieve our objectives by benefitting from a four-institution consortium of some of the country's principal experts. The majority of the programme will focus on environmental models, but while doing this we will maintain an awareness of the applications for these models, satellite operators.
空间碎片正在成为一个关键问题,有可能造成重大的社会经济影响。据估计,目前有90多万块大于1厘米的碎片绕地球运行。与这类物体的碰撞可能摧毁卫星仪器、子系统,甚至卫星本身。美国战略司令部平均每天向用户发出约900份会合数据电文(提供预计的脱靶距离、估计的碰撞概率、最近接近的时间以及最近接近的相对位置和速度),欧洲航天局目前估计,碰撞和不必要的回避机动给欧洲卫星运营商造成的经济损失每年超过2亿英镑。此外,随着物体(大于1厘米)的数量每年增加约70,000个,碰撞将不可避免地增加,如果碎片达到临界密度,就有可能发生被称为凯斯勒综合症的不受控制的碰撞级联。这有可能限制低地球轨道的使用,并增加对所有空间飞行安全的关切。因此,有两个主要关切:空间活动的长期可持续性和短期空间飞行的安全性。因此,不仅必须减少低地球轨道上碎片物体的数量,而且还必须提高对险些相撞的预测的准确性,并能够及时和有效地规划避免碰撞的机动行动。然而,一个主要问题是,目前的轨道建模和预测不够准确,因为高层大气对卫星的阻力效应随时间变化。低地轨道物体轨道预测中的主要未知数是上层大气(热层)的密度,它产生与时间和位置有关的阻力。考虑到热层密度在一天内可以变化80%,在太阳风暴期间可以变化250%,这是一个重大的建模挑战。用于预测轨道轨迹的现代模型是经验性的,可能导致很大的不确定性,相当于仅仅一天之后几公里的位置误差。为了更好地预测轨道会合,需要建立一个低层和高层大气的完全耦合(中性和电离化)模型,利用新的数学技术将各种各样的测量数据纳入其中。这种方法将提供电离层和热层的完整和准确的图片。我们的计划旨在确保英国气象局(以及更广泛的英国)指定和预测热层的能力的逐步变化。为了实现我们的目标,我们将利用以前NERC,EPSRC,UKSA,ESA和Dstl赠款和合同的背景知识产权,并探索新技术。在杠杆知识产权的情况下,我们预计所有模型将在TRL 6的资助结束和新的研究将尽最大努力的基础上。我们将通过受益于由我国一些主要专家组成的四个机构联合会来实现我们的目标。该方案的大部分将侧重于环境模型,但在这样做的同时,我们将保持对这些模型的应用,卫星运营商的认识。
项目成果
期刊论文数量(10)
专著数量(0)
科研奖励数量(0)
会议论文数量(0)
专利数量(0)
Multi-Model Ensembles for Upper Atmosphere Models
高层大气模型的多模型系综
- DOI:10.22541/essoar.167214417.77104049/v1
- 发表时间:2022
- 期刊:
- 影响因子:0
- 作者:Elvidge S
- 通讯作者:Elvidge S
Data Assimilation Modelling of the Thermosphere (without any Thermospheric Observations)
热层数据同化建模(没有任何热层观测)
- DOI:
- 发表时间:2020
- 期刊:
- 影响因子:0
- 作者:Elvidge S
- 通讯作者:Elvidge S
Comparison of Low-Latitude Ionospheric Scintillation Forecasting Techniques Using a Physics-Based Model
使用基于物理的模型对低纬度电离层闪烁预报技术进行比较
- DOI:10.1029/2020sw002462
- 发表时间:2021
- 期刊:
- 影响因子:3.7
- 作者:Nugent L
- 通讯作者:Nugent L
Mapping the Application Usability Level Framework to the Technology Readiness Levels and Other Readiness Levels
将应用程序可用性级别框架映射到技术就绪级别和其他就绪级别
- DOI:
- 发表时间:2020
- 期刊:
- 影响因子:0
- 作者:Halford A
- 通讯作者:Halford A
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Sean Elvidge其他文献
Using WACCM-X neutral densities for orbital propagation: Challenges and solutions
使用 WACCM-X 中性密度进行轨道传播:挑战和解决方案
- DOI:
10.1016/j.jsse.2024.04.012 - 发表时间:
2024 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:0
- 作者:
Matthew K. Brown;Sean Elvidge - 通讯作者:
Sean Elvidge
Sean Elvidge的其他文献
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{{ truncateString('Sean Elvidge', 18)}}的其他基金
DRivers and Impacts of Ionospheric Variability with EISCAT-3D (DRIIVE)
EISCAT-3D (DRIIVE) 的驱动器和电离层变率的影响
- 批准号:
NE/W003368/1 - 财政年份:2022
- 资助金额:
$ 56.51万 - 项目类别:
Research Grant
Space Weather Instrumentation, Measurement, Modelling and Risk: Ionosphere (SWIMMR-I)
空间天气仪器、测量、建模和风险:电离层 (SWIMMR-I)
- 批准号:
NE/V002643/1 - 财政年份:2020
- 资助金额:
$ 56.51万 - 项目类别:
Research Grant
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