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SWIMMR Aviation Risk Modelling (SWARM)

SWIMMR 航空风险建模 (SWARM)

基本信息

批准号：
NE/V002864/1
负责人：
Silvia Dalla
金额：
$ 35.65万
依托单位：
University of Central Lancashire
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2020
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2020 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FV002864%2F1
关键词：
SWIMMR Aviation Risk Modelling SWARM

项目摘要

There is growing awareness of the hazards arising from space weather which are now listed on the UK National Risk Register. One significant risk is created by 'hard' solar particle events containing a significant flux of particles with energies greater than 300 MeV. In general such solar events are detectable at the Earth's surface by ground level neutron monitors and are termed ground level enhancements (GLEs) and typically have durations of some hours, the most intense so far measured being in February 1956 in the UK. GLEs present a hazard to modern complex systems, especially aircraft, as the particles generated in the atmosphere can cause malfunctions and damage to microelectronic technology. In addition undesirable levels of effective dose to aircrew and passengers can arise during GLEs. The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) has recently identified the need to improve space weather radiation information provided to aircraft but to do so will require a widely distributed observational network, accompanied by validated radiation environment models to interpolate between observation sites and interpret the data into the effects of concern (effective dose rates and electronic upset rates). In parallel the Met Office, which is the UK government's 'owner' for space weather risks and a major provider of meteorological services for ICAO airlines, has recognised that it does not currently have the capability to provide the necessary services for space weather radiation hazards. Consequently SWARM will develop a new data-driven atmospheric radiation model (Model for Atmospheric Ionising Radiation Environments, or MAIRE+) based on an existing prototype (MAIRE) to enable the Met Office to nowcast the secondary particle fluxes, biological dose rates and electronic upset/failure rates throughout the atmosphere arising from both galactic cosmic rays and GLEs. To drive MAIRE+, real-time ground level neutron monitor data, geomagnetic disturbance indices and sunspot indices will be used. Global maps based on the ICAO global grid (15 degrees longitude, 10 degrees latitude) covering altitudes up to 60kft with 3kft altitude resolution will be provided. The dose rate maps will allow Met Office to issue alerts based on the ICAO thresholds for the affected regions. Internal models and tools will be revised to account for the most recent scientific knowledge, including updating cosmic ray and magnetic field models and improving calculations of biological dose and upset/failure rates in electronics. The new MAIRE+ model will be delivered to the Met Office and then a lengthy period of operation and validation will follow using live data sources to assess its performance. SWARM will also develop new and challenging capabilities such as increasing the model validity range to 100km altitude for GLEs (which will be important for future space tourism and high altitude aviation) and forecasting the time-profile of a GLE once it has started. For the latter, advanced models of interplanetary propagation of particles emitted from the Sun will be used and their particle energy range increased to deal with the energies required for GLEs. These new features will be incorporated into a 'research' model 'MAIRE-R' (also delivered to the Met office), however it will necessarily be less mature than the nowcast model. Finally, to address the extremely difficult problem of predicting the onset of a GLE, we will review the evidence from the historic record to determine if any solar precursor signatures for this sub-set of events can be found which could prove a valuable aid to Met Office forecasters.

人们越来越意识到空间天气带来的危害，这些危害现已被列入英国国家风险登记册。一个重大风险是由“硬”太阳粒子事件造成的，其中包含能量大于300兆电子伏的大量粒子通量。一般来说，这种太阳活动可以通过地面中子监测仪在地球表面探测到，被称为地面增强（GLEs），通常持续几个小时，迄今为止测量到的最强烈的太阳活动发生在1956年2月的英国。由于大气中产生的颗粒会导致微电子技术出现故障和损坏，因此对现代复杂系统，特别是飞机造成危害。此外，在全球变暖期间，机组人员和乘客的有效剂量也可能达到不希望的水平。国际民用航空组织（ICAO）最近确定有必要改善向飞机提供的空间天气辐射信息，但要做到这一点，就需要建立一个广泛分布的观测网络，并配备经过验证的辐射环境模型，以便在观测点之间进行插值，并将数据解释为关注的影响（有效剂量率和电子干扰率）。与此同时，英国气象局是英国政府空间天气风险的“所有者”，也是国际民航组织航空公司气象服务的主要提供者，它已经认识到它目前没有能力提供必要的空间天气辐射危害服务。因此，SWARM将在现有原型（MAIRE）的基础上开发一种新的数据驱动的大气辐射模型（大气电离辐射环境模型，MAIRE+），使英国气象局能够对整个大气中由银河系宇宙射线和gle引起的二次粒子通量、生物剂量率和电子扰动/故障率进行临近预报。为了驱动MAIRE+，将使用实时地面中子监测数据、地磁干扰指数和太阳黑子指数。将提供基于ICAO全球网格（经度15度，纬度10度）的全球地图，覆盖高度高达60kft，高度分辨率为3kft。剂量率图将允许英国气象局根据国际民航组织对受影响地区的阈值发布警报。将对内部模型和工具进行修订，以考虑到最新的科学知识，包括更新宇宙射线和磁场模型，改进生物剂量和电子设备的破坏/故障率的计算。新的MAIRE+模型将交付给英国气象局，随后将使用实时数据源进行长时间的运行和验证，以评估其性能。SWARM还将开发新的和具有挑战性的能力，例如将GLE的模型有效范围增加到100公里高度（这对未来的空间旅游和高空航空很重要），并在GLE启动后预测其时间轮廓。对于后者，将使用太阳发射的粒子行星际传播的先进模型，并增加它们的粒子能量范围，以处理GLEs所需的能量。这些新功能将被纳入“研究”模型“mire - r”（也交付给气象局），但它必然不如临近预报模型成熟。最后，为了解决预测GLE开始的极端困难的问题，我们将回顾历史记录中的证据，以确定是否可以找到这一事件子集的任何太阳前体特征，这些特征可以证明对气象局预报员有价值的帮助。