Frontiers of instability in marine ecosystems and carbon export (Marine Frontiers)

海洋生态系统和碳输出的不稳定前沿（Marine Frontiers）

• 批准号: NE/V011103/1
• 负责人: Corinne Le Quéré
• 金额: $ 207.65万
• 依托单位: University of East Anglia
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2021 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FV011103%2F1
• 关键词: Frontiers; instability; marine; ecosystems; carbon

Marine Frontiers is an innovative project that will push the frontiers of knowledge on the limits to stability in marine ecosystem functioning. It will introduce, for the first time in a global model, three triggers of widespread mortality: viruses, early life cycles, and microplastic pollution, and test the impact of extreme conditions that are plausible for the coming Century. Marine ecosystems keep the concentration of atmospheric CO2 about 200 parts per million (ppm) lower than it would be otherwise. Marine ecosystems were not stable in the geological past. They contributed and possibly triggered massive Ocean Anoxic Events. Global marine ecosystem models used for climate study have been shown to underestimate variability in a range of variables, including variability in carbon and oxygen fluxes over multiple time and space scales, and variability in plankton biomass. The incapacity of the current generation of ocean carbon models to reproduce observed variability means instabilities in marine ecosystems and associated carbon fluxes have never been adequately explored.Mortality processes are critical in the ocean because the biomass turns over very quickly. Yet mortality processes have received little attention so far. Recent advances in observation technology (particularly genomics and automated imaging) and in knowledge have highlighted processes that could radically alter mortality processes in the ocean. Marine Frontiers will attempt, for the first time, to model three of the most important triggers of mortality, in order to explore the stability of marine ecosystems in a changing environment. Marine Frontiers will expand mortality processes in the NEMO-PlankTOM model using theory, observations, and new computing methods. A new framework for representing marine ecosystems is proposed through the representation of Particle Functional Types (PtclFTs) that include living particles such as phytoplankton, zooplankton, and bacteria, as well as dead particles such as virus, microplastics, and organic aggregates of different size.Viruses will be introduced as a new PtclFT of inert properties. Viruses will be parameterised with a reproduction and decay rates based on recent insights from ocean observations. Early life cycles will be introduced for crustaceans, jellyfish, and pteropods, initially through the explicit representation of the eggs, the larvae and the adult stages, but with optimisation of model resources in a second stage. Microplastics will be introduced as a new PtclFT of inert properties, using an ocean influx based on observations and a decay rate optimised to the observed distribution. Microplastics will penetrate the food chain through incidental grazing by zooplankton, causing physical damages and chemical poisoning.An advanced approach to validate the model will be developed using emergent properties of the ecosystem functioning such as the North/South ratio in chla, the maximum intensity of the Spring bloom, patchiness, and trophic pyramids. This is in addition to standard validation biogeochemical fields (nutrients, carbon, biomass). Emergent properties and theoretical analysis of the strengths of food webs will also serve to establish precursor indicators for instabilities. The model will then be used to explore the sensitivity of marine ecosystems and resulting carbon export to growing external pressures from climate change, ocean acidification, microplastic pollution, fisheries, and combined stressors. This highly ambitious project builds on nine "Greenocean" Workshops led by the project Principal Investigator (PI), and international collaborations with experts at the forefront of understanding and observing marine ecosystems. The PI is a world leader who has demonstrated experience in leading cutting-edge research. She is a Fellow of the Royal Society, a highly cited researcher for 2018 & 2019, and has won seven Prizes and Medals for her work.

海洋前沿是一个创新项目，将推动海洋生态系统功能稳定性极限的知识前沿。它将首次在全球模型中引入广泛死亡的三个触发因素：病毒，早期生命周期和微塑料污染，并测试未来世纪可能出现的极端条件的影响。海洋生态系统使大气中的二氧化碳浓度比其他情况下低约百万分之200（ppm）。海洋生态系统在过去的地质时期并不稳定。它们促成并可能引发了大规模的海洋缺氧事件。用于气候研究的全球海洋生态系统模型已被证明低估了一系列变量的变异性，包括多个时间和空间尺度上碳和氧通量的变异性以及浮游生物生物量的变异性。目前的海洋碳模型无法再现观测到的变化，这意味着海洋生态系统的不稳定性和相关的碳通量从未得到充分探讨。然而，迄今为止，死亡过程几乎没有受到关注。观测技术（特别是基因组学和自动成像）和知识方面的最新进展突出表明，海洋中的死亡过程可能会发生根本性的变化。海洋前沿将首次尝试模拟三个最重要的死亡触发因素，以探索海洋生态系统在不断变化的环境中的稳定性。海洋前沿将使用理论、观测和新的计算方法扩展NEMO-PlankTOM模型中的死亡率过程。提出了一种新的海洋生态系统模型，即通过粒子功能类型（PtclFT）来描述海洋生态系统，PtclFT包括浮游植物、浮游动物和细菌等活粒子，以及病毒、微塑料和不同大小的有机聚集体等死粒子，其中病毒将被引入作为一种新的惰性PtclFT。根据最近对海洋的观察，病毒将以繁殖和衰变率作为参数。将介绍甲壳类动物、水母和翼足类动物的早期生命周期，最初是通过明确表示卵、幼虫和成虫阶段，但在第二阶段对模型资源进行优化。微塑料将作为一种新的惰性PtclFT引入，使用基于观测的海洋流入量和根据观测分布优化的衰减率。微塑料将通过浮游动物的偶然放牧渗透到食物链中，造成物理损害和化学中毒。将开发一种先进的方法来验证该模型，使用生态系统功能的新兴特性，如叶绿素a的南北比，春季水华的最大强度，斑块和营养金字塔。这是除了标准验证地球化学领域（养分，碳，生物量）。食物网强度的涌现特性和理论分析也将有助于建立不稳定性的前兆指标。然后，该模型将用于探索海洋生态系统的敏感性以及由此产生的碳出口对气候变化、海洋酸化、微塑料污染、渔业和综合压力源等日益增长的外部压力的敏感性。这个雄心勃勃的项目建立在由项目首席研究员（PI）领导的九个“绿色海洋”研讨会以及与了解和观察海洋生态系统前沿专家的国际合作基础上。PI是一位世界领导者，在领先的尖端研究方面拥有丰富的经验。她是皇家学会的研究员，2018年和2019年被高度引用的研究员，并因其工作获得了七个奖项和奖章。

项目成果

Climate change and biospheric output.

气候变化和生物圈产出。

• DOI: 10.1126/science.abo1262
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Science (New York, N.Y.)
• 作者: Le Quéré C

Using Probability Density Functions to Evaluate Models (PDFEM, v1.0) to compare a biogeochemical model with satellite derived chlorophyll

使用概率密度函数评估模型（PDFEM，v1.0）将生物地球化学模型与卫星衍生的叶绿素进行比较

• DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2022-849
• 发表时间: 2022
• 作者: Jönsson B

Fingerprint of climate change on Southern Ocean carbon storage

气候变化对南大洋碳储存的影响

• DOI: 10.1002/essoar.10512597.1
• 发表时间: 2022
• 作者: Wright R

Testing the reconstruction of modelled particulate organic carbon from surface ecosystem components using PlankTOM12 and machine learning

使用 PlankTOM12 和机器学习测试从表面生态系统组成部分重建模拟颗粒有机碳

• DOI: 10.5194/gmd-16-2995-2023
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Geoscientific Model Development
• 影响因子: 5.1
• 作者: Denvil-Sommer A