Foundations for climate resilient and sustainable growing settlements (U-RES)

气候适应力和可持续发展定居点的基础（U-RES）

• 批准号: NE/P015638/1
• 负责人: Corinne Le Quéré
• 金额: $ 21.46万
• 依托单位: University of East Anglia
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2017 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FP015638%2F1
• 关键词: Foundations; climate; resilient; sustainable; growing

Urban populations are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather events related to climate change, especially heat waves and floods. This vulnerability is caused by a combination of factors including existing inequalities, high population, and high exposure to certain types of environmental hazards. As cities emerge from smaller settlements and nearby adjacent cities, little design goes into ensuring that they are established in appropriate locations, that new infrastructure is adequately resilient to current and future extreme weather events, and that governance systems and growth take into account the specific needs of marginalised groups. Instead, urban development often appears chaotic and unplanned, locking citizens, particularly those who are most marginalised, into high states of vulnerability. If we could influence how burgeoning settlements turn into cities and megacities at the start of their growth trajectory, even marginally, the positive repercussions for resilience and wellbeing would be colossal. But just how and where do new cities emerge, and what are the opportunities for influencing their design while they expand to be resilient to extreme weather in a changing climate?African urbanization, in particular, is exploding. Decisions on how development will take place have time-limited intervention points. There are as yet no pre-determined pathways for development in Africa, providing a unique opportunity for influence. There is also a growing imperative and desire from African initiatives to develop sustainably, to support the implementation of the UN Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG), particularly Goal 11 on Sustainable cities and communities. Here we will focus on setting the foundations for increasing climate resilience and sustainable urbanisation in African. U-RES brings together a rich team of academic and non-academic experts, to explore multiple aspects of the very early stages of urbanisation: Through the lenses of the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), U-RES will examine the current state of urbanisation and how this aligns, or not, with the projected increasing risks from climate change. This will be done through remote sensing and GIS analysis techniques to assess changes in land-cover. In addition, model simulations used by the IPCC to project climate change will be analysed for two risk-related climatic indices, one around heat waves and one around heavy rainfall (a driver of flood risk). This workstream will provide an overview of the patterns of urbanisation in Africa, and an initial picture of the alignment of current urbanisation with risks of extreme climatic events. Through the lenses of the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC), U-RES will conduct case studies of urban governance, two around Durban South Africa, and two in Isolo Kenya. These case studies will provide on-the-ground understanding into how information is gathered and used by decision makers, and provide insights into how this can be modified to better take into account the needs of marginalised groups. Through the lenses of the Arts and Humanities Research Council (AHRC), U-RES will examine archaeological evidence of changing positions of human settlements over time, and how the changes related to environmental factors. This will be done by focusing on Egypt and Mesopotamia, which are a good analogues for environmental changes occurring in Africa. Analogues from the past will be used here to examine how decision-making process is influenced by complex interrelationships of opportunities and constraints afforded by a range of drivers, set against long-term societal traditions, ideologies and religion. The interview material from the governance case studies will be further used to develop narratives of good governance and to raise awareness of the importance of evidence to guide decision-making on urbanization.

城市人口特别容易受到与气候变化有关的极端天气事件的影响，特别是热浪和洪水。这一脆弱性是由多种因素造成的，包括现有的不平等、高人口和高度暴露于某些类型的环境危害。随着城市从较小的住区和邻近城市中崛起，几乎没有考虑到确保它们建立在适当的地点，确保新的基础设施对当前和未来的极端天气事件具有足够的弹性，以及治理体系和增长考虑到被边缘化群体的具体需求。相反，城市发展往往显得混乱和无计划，将公民，特别是那些最边缘化的人，锁定在高度脆弱的状态。如果我们能够影响蓬勃发展的定居点如何在它们的增长轨迹开始时转变为城市和特大城市，那么对弹性和福祉的积极影响将是巨大的。但是，新城市是如何出现的，又是在哪里出现的？在气候变化的情况下，为了适应极端天气的发展，有哪些机会影响它们的设计？尤其是非洲的城市化正在爆炸式增长。关于如何发展的决定有时间限制的干预点。到目前为止，非洲还没有预先确定的发展道路，这提供了一个独特的影响机会。非洲倡议也越来越迫切和渴望可持续发展，以支持实施联合国《巴黎协定》和可持续发展目标，特别是关于可持续城市和社区的目标11。在这里，我们将重点为提高非洲的气候适应能力和可持续城市化奠定基础。U-RES汇集了一支由学术和非学术专家组成的丰富团队，探索城市化非常早期阶段的多个方面：通过自然环境研究理事会(NERC)的镜头，U-RES将研究城市化的当前状态，以及这种状况如何与预计的气候变化日益增加的风险相一致。这将通过遥感和地理信息系统分析技术来评估土地覆盖的变化。此外，IPCC用于预测气候变化的模型模拟将针对两个与风险相关的气候指数进行分析，一个围绕热浪，另一个围绕暴雨(洪水风险的驱动因素)。这一工作流程将提供非洲城市化模式的概述，以及当前城市化与极端气候事件风险相结合的初步图景。通过经济及社会研究理事会(ESRC)的镜头，U-Res将进行城市治理的案例研究，两个在南非德班，两个在Isolo肯尼亚。这些案例研究将提供对决策者如何收集和使用信息的实地了解，并提供关于如何修改这些信息以更好地考虑被边缘化群体的需求的见解。通过艺术和人文研究理事会(AHRC)的镜头，U-RES将研究人类住区位置随时间变化的考古证据，以及这些变化与环境因素的关系。这将通过将重点放在埃及和美索不达米亚来实现，这两个国家是非洲发生的环境变化的很好类比。这里将使用过去的类比来检验决策过程如何受到机会和制约的复杂相互关系的影响，这些关系由一系列驱动因素提供，与长期的社会传统、意识形态和宗教背道而驰。来自治理案例研究的访谈材料将进一步用于阐述善政，并提高人们对指导城市化决策的证据的重要性的认识。

项目成果

Foundations for climate resilient and sustainable growing settlements (U-RES)

气候适应力和可持续发展定居点的基础（U-RES）

• 发表时间: 2020
• 作者: Corinne Le Quéré

Decolonizing climate change-heritage research

非殖民化气候变化遗产研究

• DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01279-8
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Nature Climate Change
• 影响因子: 30.7
• 作者: Simpson N