UKESM 1 Year Extension

UKESM 1 年延期

• 批准号: NE/V013203/1
• 负责人: Susan Loughlin
• 金额: $ 0.5万
• 依托单位: British Geological Survey
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2021 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FV013203%2F1
• 关键词: UKESM; Year; Extension

Global climate change is one of the leading environmental threats facing mankind. To develop appropriate mitigation and adaptation strategies requires accurate projections of the future state of the Earth's climate. To address this, we develop and use Global Climate Models (GCMs) that describe the main physical processes in the coupled climate system. These models are integrated forwards in simulated time, from a pre-industrial period to present-day, forced by observed estimates of key greenhouse gases, aerosols and land-use. The models are then continued into the future forced by a range of greenhouse gas, aerosol and land-use scenarios. Each of the model future climates can then compared to the simulated present-day climates. This analysis results in an ensemble of climate change estimates that can be used to assess the socio-economic and ecological impacts of the simulated changes and aid in the development of mitigation and adaptation policies. GCMs have been further developed into Earth system models (ESMs), as we successfully did in the UKESM LTSM, where UKESM1 was developed from the coupled physical model, HadGEM3-GC3.1. A key difference between ESMs and GCMs is the former include an interactive description of the global carbon cycle supporting the analysis of both physical climate change and potential changes in the efficacy by which anthropogenic emitted CO2 is taken up by natural carbon reservoirs. A reduction in the uptake efficiency of Earth's natural carbon reservoirs may result in a larger fraction of emitted carbon dioxide remaining in the atmosphere to warm the planet. Accurate estimates of the future evolution of both the global climate system and the carbon cycle are therefore crucial for getting a clear picture of the future risks humanity faces, as well as for developing mitigation actions (that typically target the efficacy of carbon uptake) to keep global warming below dangerous levels. To address this need, we developed the 1st UK Earth system model (UKESM1) and ran it for a large suite of experiments in the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). UKESM1 is the most advanced Earth system model in the world today and as well as a coupled physical climate model, includes interactive treatment of (i) the global carbon cycle and dynamic vegetation, (ii) atmospheric chemistry and aerosols and (iii) models for the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. We have run a large (19 member) ensemble of historical simulations with UKESM1 (1850 to 2015) and extended a number of these into the future (2015 to 2100) following 7 different future emission pathways from CMIP6 scenarioMIP. In this extension, we propose a detailed analysis of the UKESM1 historical ensemble and the suite of scenarioMIP projections. Our aims are (i) to better understand what drives observed historical Earth system change and evaluate how well UKESM1 represents these changes, (ii) with the knowledge from (i), analyze simulated Earth system change in the UKESM1 scenarioMIP ensemble, combining this with the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble, to document the range of simulated changes across the coupled Earth system over the coming century. Two primary emphases in this analysis will be; (a) to document and contrast regional changes at different levels of global mean warming (e.g. 2C or 3C) and (b) where possible, to constrain the various coupled feedbacks simulated by UKESM1 that drive the magnitude of future change. In addition, we will continue to provide support to the large UKESM user and model development community and will hold two consultation workshops with (i) UK climate policymakers and (ii) UK climate impacts researchers. In these workshops we will present our findings on predicted future Earth system change and begin a two-way dialogue on how UK Earth system modeling can best support the needs of these two groups, developing future collaborations based on mutual understanding of each group's needs and goals.

全球气候变化是人类面临的主要环境威胁之一。要制定适当的减缓和适应战略，就需要准确预测地球气候的未来状况。为了解决这个问题，我们开发和使用全球气候模型（GCM），描述耦合气候系统中的主要物理过程。这些模型在模拟时间内向前整合，从工业化前时期到现在，受到关键温室气体，气溶胶和土地使用的观测估计的影响。然后，这些模型将在一系列温室气体、气溶胶和土地使用情景的推动下继续进行。然后，每个模型未来气候可以与模拟的当前气候进行比较。这一分析产生了一套气候变化估计数，可用于评估模拟变化的社会经济和生态影响，并有助于制定缓解和适应政策。GCM已经进一步发展成为地球系统模型（ESM），正如我们在UKESM LTSM中所成功做的那样，其中UKESM 1是从耦合物理模型HadGEM 3-GC 3.1发展而来的。无害环境措施和大气环流模型之间的一个关键区别是，前者包括对全球碳循环的交互式描述，支持对物理气候变化和自然碳库吸收人为排放的CO2的效率的潜在变化进行分析。地球天然碳库吸收效率的降低可能导致更大比例的二氧化碳排放留在大气中，使地球变暖。因此，对全球气候系统和碳循环未来演变的准确估计对于明确人类未来面临的风险以及制定缓解行动（通常针对碳吸收的功效）以将全球变暖保持在危险水平以下至关重要。为了满足这一需求，我们开发了第一个英国地球系统模型（UKESM 1），并在第六个耦合模型相互比较项目（CMIP 6）中进行了大量实验。UKESM 1是当今世界上最先进的地球系统模型，也是一个耦合的物理气候模型，包括对以下方面的交互处理：（一）全球碳循环和动态植被;（二）大气化学和气溶胶;（三）格陵兰和南极冰盖模型。我们使用UKESM 1（1850年至2015年）运行了一个大型（19个成员）历史模拟集合，并根据CMIP 6的7种不同的未来排放路径将其中一些扩展到未来（2015年至2100年）。在此扩展中，我们提出了一个详细的分析UKESM 1的历史合奏和套件的MIPOMIP预测。我们的目标是（i）更好地了解是什么驱动了观测到的历史地球系统变化，并评估UKESM 1如何代表这些变化，（ii）与知识（i），分析模拟的地球系统变化的UKESM 1 EMOMIP集合，结合这与CMIP 6多模式集合，记录模拟的变化范围在未来世纪整个耦合地球系统。本分析的两个主要重点是：（a）记录和对比不同全球平均变暖水平（例如2 C或3 C）下的区域变化;（B）在可能的情况下，限制UKESM 1模拟的各种耦合反馈，这些反馈驱动未来变化的幅度。此外，我们将继续为大型UKESM用户和模型开发社区提供支持，并将与（i）英国气候政策制定者和（ii）英国气候影响研究人员举行两次咨询研讨会。在这些研讨会上，我们将介绍我们对预测未来地球系统变化的研究结果，并开始关于英国地球系统建模如何最好地支持这两个群体的需求的双向对话，在相互理解每个群体的需求和目标的基础上发展未来的合作。