Global Volcano Model

全球火山模型

• 批准号: NE/I030038/1
• 负责人: Susan Loughlin
• 金额: $ 19.92万
• 依托单位: British Geological Survey
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2011 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FI030038%2F1
• 关键词: Global; Volcano; Model

This project aims to develop a major international effort to create a Global Volcano Model (GVM) that provides systematic evidence, data and analysis of volcanic hazards and risk. The GVM project addresses hazards and risks on global, regional and local scales, and develops the capability to anticipate future volcanism and its consequences. The project builds on initiatives over the last several years to establish a global database of volcanic hazards (VOGRIPA) and to develop analysis and modelling tools to assess volcanic hazard and risk. The proposed GVM project also complements and interfaces with other major international initiatives, notably including the Global Volcanism Progamme of the Smithsonian Institution, WOVOdat (a database on precursors to volcanic eruptions), VHub (a US-led effort to develop an online collaborative environment for volcanology research and risk mitigation, including the development of more effective volcanic hazards models), the Volcano Observatory Best Practices Programme and the International Volcanic Health Hazards Network. The GVM project has parallels with the Global Earthquake Model in intention and scope of providing an authoritative source for assessing volcanic hazard and risk. There is a strong international consensus that GVM is an essential and timely undertaking. This project, which is within the natural hazards theme of NERC's strategy, provides a unique opportunity for the UK to play a leading role in a major international effort to address volcanic hazard and risk.There are 50 or so volcanic eruptions a year worldwide with approximately 20 ongoing at any one time. Increased global volcanic risk derives from factors that are increasing exposure and vulnerability, such as population growth, environmental degradation, urbanization, inequality and increasing independencies in a globalised world. There is also a decrease in societal resilience arising from the way society is organized and the increasing complexities of systems required to respond to emergencies, especially where impacts extend beyond national boundaries. The GVM project will develop an integrated global database system on volcanic hazards, vulnerability and exposure, make this globally accessible and crucially involve the international volcanological community and users in a partnership to design, develop, analyse and maintain the database system. The main hazards include: explosive eruptions, pyroclastic flows, lava domes, lava flows, lahars, tephra fall and ash dispersal, gas, flank collapse, debris flows and health hazards. New reliability indices and measures of uncertainty will be essential elements of the GVM. The GVM project will aim to establish new international metadata standards that will reduce ambiguity in the use of global volcanic datasets. Vulnerability and exposure data will be integrated into the GVM and again new methods of assessment and analysis will be investigated and tested. The integrated database system will be made available via an interactive web system with search engines using both spatial and text-based commands. The downloadable products (including maps, tables and text) and web system will be developed with end-users. Addition of data by users will be facilitated via an upload facility. New data or corrections will be validated by an editor before being incorporated.The project also intends to establish methodologies for analysis of the evidence and data to inform risk assessment, to develop complementary volcanic hazards models, and create relevant hazards and risk assessment tools. Only a very broad international interdisciplinary partnership that is closely aligned to the needs of users of research can meet all these ambitious objectives. The research will provide the scientific basis for mitigation strategies, responses to ash in the atmosphere for the aviation industry, land-use planning, evacuation plans and management of volcanic emergencies.

该项目旨在开展重大国际努力，创建全球火山模型（GVM），提供火山危害和风险的系统证据、数据和分析。 GVM 项目致力于解决全球、区域和地方范围内的危害和风险，并开发预测未来火山活动及其后果的能力。该项目建立在过去几年建立全球火山灾害数据库（VOGRIPA）并开发分析和建模工具以评估火山灾害和风险的举措的基础上。拟议的 GVM 项目还与其他主要国际举措相补充和衔接，特别是包括史密森尼学会的全球火山计划、WOVOdat（火山喷发前兆数据库）、VHub（美国主导的为火山学研究和风险缓解开发在线协作环境的努力，包括开发更有效的火山灾害模型）、火山观测站最佳实践计划和 国际火山健康危害网络。 GVM 项目在为评估火山灾害和风险提供权威来源的目的和范围上与全球地震模型相似。国际上已达成强烈共识，认为 GVM 是一项必要且及时的举措。该项目属于 NERC 战略的自然灾害主题，为英国提供了一个独特的机会，使其能够在应对火山灾害和风险的重大国际努力中发挥主导作用。全世界每年大约发生 50 次火山喷发，其中每次大约有 20 次正在喷发。全球火山风险的增加源于暴露度和脆弱性增加的因素，例如人口增长、环境退化、城市化、不平等和全球化世界中日益独立的因素。由于社会的组织方式和应对紧急情况所需的系统日益复杂，特别是在影响超出国界的情况下，社会复原力也有所下降。 GVM 项目将开发一个关于火山灾害、脆弱性和暴露度的综合全球数据库系统，使其在全球范围内均可访问，并至关重要地让国际火山学界和用户参与合作，设计、开发、分析和维护数据库系统。主要危害包括：爆炸性喷发、火山碎屑流、熔岩穹丘、熔岩流、火山泥、火山灰坠落和火山灰扩散、瓦斯、侧面塌陷、泥石流和健康危害。新的可靠性指标和不确定性测量将成为 GVM 的基本要素。 GVM 项目旨在建立新的国际元数据标准，以减少全球火山数据集使用中的模糊性。漏洞和暴露数据将被集成到 GVM 中，并且将再次调查和测试新的评估和分析方法。集成数据库系统将通过交互式网络系统与使用空间和基于文本的命令的搜索引擎提供。可下载的产品（包括地图、表格和文本）和网络系统将与最终用户一起开发。用户添加数据将通过上传设施来促进。新数据或更正将在纳入之前由编辑进行验证。该项目还打算建立证据和数据分析方法，为风险评估提供信息，开发补充的火山灾害模型，并创建相关的灾害和风险评估工具。只有紧密结合研究用户需求的非常广泛的国​​际跨学科伙伴关系才能实现所有这些雄心勃勃的目标。该研究将为缓解策略、航空业大气灰烬应对、土地使用规划、疏散计划和火山紧急情况管理提供科学依据。

项目成果

Catastrophe Modelling

灾难建模

• 发表时间: 2017
• 作者: Loughlin S

Global Volcanic Hazards and Risk

全球火山危害和风险

• DOI: 10.1017/cbo9781316276273.004
• 发表时间: 2015
• 作者: Brown S

Encyclopedia of Natural Hazards

自然灾害百科全书

• DOI: 10.1007/978-1-4020-4399-4_39
• 发表时间: 2013
• 作者: Loughlin S

1st IAVCEI/GVM Workshop: "From Volcanic Hazard to Risk Assessment", Geneva, 27-29 June 2018

第一届 IAVCEI/GVM 研讨会：“从火山灾害到风险评估”，日内瓦，2018 年 6 月 27-29 日

• 发表时间: 2019
• 作者: Bonadonna C

Science for Disaster Risk Management

灾害风险管理科学

• 发表时间: 2017
• 作者: Loughlin, S. C.,