Characterisation of the Near-Field Eyjafjallajökull Volcanic Plume and its Long-range Influence

Eyjafjallajökull喷发产生的火山羽流严重扰乱了整个欧洲的航空运输。确保航空安全的监管反应取决于分散模式。扩散预测的准确性取决于喷发的强度、羽流动力学的模型表示以及羽流中火山灰和气体的物理性质。要更好地确定这些过程和性质的特征，就需要更好地了解近源羽流区域。该项目将采用观测和建模，以实现更准确和更有效的分散预测。这项调查将寻求整合火山学和大气科学方法，以启动近场大气过程的完整系统模型。这项研究将利用非常高分辨率的数值计算模型，结合新的模拟和见解，对层结大气中火山羽流的动力学及其重力平衡、气象条件的影响、火山灰颗粒和气体的物理和化学行为、物理和化学现场测量、地面遥感和卫星遥感羽流进行深入研究。当与排放本身的特征相结合时，这项研究将导致预测能力的增强。埃亚菲亚德拉火山喷发现已暂停。然而，在埃亚菲亚德拉火山之前的三次历史性喷发之后，都是规模更大的卡特拉火山的喷发。冰岛至少还有另外两个火山系统已经做好了喷发的准备。该项目将确保从2010年4月/5月对Eyjafjallajökull的反应中学到的科学和组织经验充分转化为未来几年任何其他火山进一步喷发的准备。总体而言，该项目将(A)完成对4月/5月喷发的大气数据的分析，(B)为今后的观测和预报做准备，以及(C)如果在未来几年内再次发生喷发，将进行更多的观测。

The volcanic plume from the Eyjafjallajökull eruption has caused significant disruption to air transport across Europe. The regulatory response, ensuring aviation safety, depends on dispersion models. The accuracy of the dispersion predictions depend on the intensity of the eruption, on the model representation of the plume dynamics and the physical properties of the ash and gases in the plume. Better characterisation of these processes and properties will require improved understanding of the near-source plume region. This project will bring to bear observations and modelling in order to achieve more accurate and validated dispersion predictions. The investigation will seek to integrate the volcanological and atmospheric science methods in order to initiate a complete system model of the near-field atmospheric processes. This study will integrate new modelling and insights into the dynamics of the volcanic plume and its gravitational equilibration in the stratified atmosphere, effects of meteorological conditions, physical and chemical behaviour of ash particles and gases, physical and chemical in situ measurements, ground-based remote sensing and satellite remote sensing of the plume with very high resolution numerical computational modelling. When integrated with characterisations of the emissions themselves, the research will lead to enhanced predictive capability. The Eyjafjallajökull eruption has now paused. However, all three previous historical eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull were followed by eruptions of the much larger Katla volcano. At least two other volcanic systems in Iceland are 'primed' ready to erupt. This project will ensure that the science and organisational lessons learned from the April/May 2010 response to Eyjafjallajökull are translated fully into preparedness for a further eruption of any other volcano over the coming years. Overall, the project will (a) complete the analysis of atmospheric data from the April/May eruption, (b) prepare for future observations and forecasting and (c) make additional observations if there is another eruption during within the forthcoming few years.