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ROBUST - Enabling better management of UK multi-hazard risk

稳健 - 更好地管理英国多种灾害风险

基本信息

批准号：
NE/V018698/1
负责人：
John Hillier
金额：
$ 18.92万
依托单位：
Loughborough University
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2021
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2021 至无数据
项目状态：
未结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FV018698%2F1
关键词：
ROBUST Enabling better management UK

项目摘要

The UK is severely impacted by multiple weather-related hazards, particularly flooding and extreme winds. The winter of 2015-16 illustrates the UK's vulnerability to such weather extremes, with estimated costs of £1.3-1.9 billion (EA, 2018). High-profile reports by government agencies now recognise that risk might be exacerbated when flooding and extreme wind co-occur, but at present most major UK sectors (e.g. insurance, critical infrastructure) consider most high-impact weather risks as independent phenomena. Progressing from studies of single storms and seasons, I was the first to demonstrate a systematic link in the UK between wintertime flooding and extreme winds (Hillier et al, 2015), even if floods and damaging winds typically occur in different storms (De Luca & Hillier, 2017). This relationship is not well understood, but it may reflect the way in which such storms interact with the jet stream (Hillier & Dixon, 2020). My recent work is based around estimating losses and communicates its findings using plots familiar to insurers (e.g. of probability vs loss), making implications more accessible than the outputs reported in standard scientific papers. Consequently, it is recognized as important, but another step is needed to alter financial practice; to quote a senior risk manager at Lloyd's of London, a person with in-depth knowledge of these hazards - "It's good work, but how do I use it?". ROBUST is a response to that question. Specifically, the Prudential Regulation Authority, a division of the Bank of England (BoE) that regulates UK financial services asked me exactly the same thing. Their concern is to ensure that the UK's financial service companies, such as insurers, are resilient to the impacts of natural disasters. In this role they need to decide whether or not to require insurers to hold more capital to pay the bill for larger than expected natural disasters. However, holding more capital costs insurers money, so the BoE do not want to impose this requirement unnecessarily. In response to this dilemma, I co-designed ROBUST with the Bank of England and Sayers LLP (a leading flood risk modeller) to understand the financial implications of this observed tendency for severe inland flooding and extreme wind damage to co-occur in wet and windy years. ROBUST's main aim is to enable the Bank to fulfil its need to deliver a statement on what regulation might be required. Our pilot study (Hillier, BoE, Aon, CatInsight) demonstrated that simply applying the scientifically observed correlation within statistical models of financial loss cannot reach a definitive answer - the assumptions needed create large uncertainties. Joint physical modelling of flooding and wind extremes is needed, driven by a climate model (e.g. the Met Office's UKCP18). However, this is not a simple endeavour, and then the BoE needs to extend it from hazard (e.g. flooding), to loss, and then to the implications of that loss. Perhaps this is why, despite being spectacularly illustrated by storms like Desmond in 2015, the association between flooding and extreme winds in the UK has lingered for a decade at the top of the insurance 'to do' list without being done. To solve the BoE's problem, ROBUST adopts a pragmatic, knowledge exchange approach, partnering with organisations including the BoE, Sayers LLP and the Met Office. It develops outputs from several existing UKRI funded projects on flooding (AquaCAT - Sayers) and wind damage (WISC - Met Office) to create a step-change in how we understand their co-occurrence, and then explicitly progresses to metrics suitable for decisions about the UK's financial stability. My skills and experience are ideal for this task. Moreover, to create wider impacts, I will promote cross-sector learning by taking the lessons about better management of UK multi-hazard risk gained with insurers and engaging with utility companies and transport infrastructure providers.

英国受到多种天气相关灾害的严重影响，尤其是洪水和极端大风。2015-16年的冬天说明了英国对这种极端天气的脆弱性，估计损失为13 - 19亿英镑（EA, 2018）。政府机构的高调报告现在认识到，当洪水和极端风共同发生时，风险可能会加剧，但目前大多数英国主要部门（例如保险，关键基础设施）将最具影响力的天气风险视为独立现象。从单一风暴和季节的研究进展来看，我是第一个证明英国冬季洪水与极端风之间存在系统联系的人（Hillier等人，2015），即使洪水和破坏性风通常发生在不同的风暴中（De Luca & Hillier, 2017）。这种关系还没有得到很好的理解，但它可能反映了这种风暴与急流相互作用的方式（Hillier & Dixon, 2020）。我最近的工作是基于估计损失，并使用保险公司熟悉的图表（例如概率与损失）传达其发现，使其含义比标准科学论文中报告的输出更容易理解。因此，它被认为是重要的，但需要采取另一个步骤来改变财务惯例；引用伦敦劳合社（Lloyd’s of London）一位对这些风险有深入了解的高级风险经理的话：“这是一项好工作，但我该如何使用它？”稳健是对这个问题的回答。具体来说，负责监管英国金融服务的英国审慎监管局（Prudential Regulation Authority）问了我完全相同的问题。他们担心的是确保英国的金融服务公司（如保险公司）能够抵御自然灾害的影响。在这个角色中，他们需要决定是否要求保险公司持有更多的资本，以支付超过预期的自然灾害的账单。然而，持有更多资本需要保险公司花钱，因此英国央行不希望不必要地施加这一要求。为了应对这一困境，我与英格兰银行和塞耶斯律师事务所（一家领先的洪水风险建模公司）共同设计了ROBUST，以了解在潮湿和多风年份同时发生严重内陆洪水和极端风力破坏的趋势所带来的金融影响。ROBUST的主要目标是使世行能够满足其需要，就可能需要的监管发表声明。我们的初步研究（Hillier, BoE, Aon, CatInsight）表明，简单地在财务损失的统计模型中应用科学观察到的相关性并不能得到明确的答案——所需的假设产生了很大的不确定性。在气候模型（例如英国气象局的UKCP18）的驱动下，需要对洪水和极端风进行联合物理建模。然而，这不是一项简单的努力，然后英国央行需要将其从危险（例如洪水）扩展到损失，然后扩展到损失的影响。也许这就是为什么，尽管2015年的德斯蒙德风暴引人注目地说明了英国的洪水和极端风之间的联系，在保险公司的“待办事项”清单上徘徊了十年而没有完成。为了解决英国央行的问题，ROBUST采用了一种务实的知识交流方式，与英国央行、塞耶斯律师事务所和英国气象局等组织合作。它发展了几个现有的UKRI资助的洪水（AquaCAT - Sayers）和风灾（WISC - Met Office）项目的产出，以创造我们如何理解它们共同发生的阶梯式变化，然后明确地发展到适合英国金融稳定决策的指标。我的技能和经验非常适合这项任务。此外，为了产生更广泛的影响，我将通过吸取从保险公司获得的关于更好地管理英国多灾害风险的经验教训，并与公用事业公司和交通基础设施提供商合作，促进跨部门学习。